[ [ HOME | NEWS | POLITICS | EDITORIAL | DEFENCE | FEATURES | LEISURE | BUSINESS | ADS ]

LTTE prepares for another try at Jaffna

by our Defence Correspondent
The Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam are preparing for another assault on the town of Jaffna, having failed to achieve their objective in ferocious fighting in April and May, according to Tamil sources in the Northern Province.

The Tigers are likely to time their attack to coincide with the 17th anniversary of the ‘’Black July" anti-Tamil riots in Colombo that took place in 1983, sources said.

The LTTE still has control of several crucial areas on the Jaffna Peninsula from which they can launch simultaneous attacks from several flanks. These include the Arialai Navatkuli-Kaitadi- Sarasalai-Chavakachcheri region that is between Jaffna town and Chavakachcheri, and the Kilali-Eluthumadduval area that is further east as well as the Nagar Kovil front midway up the Vadamarachchi coast.

Although the army, has conducted several small scale operations in these areas that are aimed at keeping the LTTE on the back foot. CENSORED

Tiger leader Velupillai Prabhakaran is known to be quite superstitious where dates, anniversaries and numbers are concerned, and the timing of many of the LTTE’s attacks over-the years have reflected this superstition in both the Northeast and terror attacks in Colombo.

However, knowing that the armed forces go on alert during such anniversaries, the LTTE does not strictly stick to the date itself, but often stages attacks a few days before or after the anniversaries.

The Black July anniversary is one of the commonly marked anniversaries, as are Black Tiger Day, LTTE Heroes’ Week (which "coincides" with Prabhakaran’s own birthday) etc. Buddhist holidays such as Vesak are also target dates. as are Sri Lankan national holidays such as Independence Day.

However, it is not clear if the LTTE would have recovered sufficient strength in cadres on the date of the Black July anniversary. The Tigers suffered huge losses in cadres in fighting on the Jaffna Peninsula starting in March and stretching continuously through April and mid May, from the overrunning of the Elephant Pass army camp to fighting in the Pallai, Arialai and Chavakachcheri areas.

Even before that the LTTE lost a large number of cadres in attacks in the Elephant Pass and Vettilaikerni regions in December and January.

The Tigers never gave a full accounting of how many cadres they lost in these months of fighting, clearly indicating that they had suffered heavily, especially in late April and early May. In those latter weeks, the LTTE gave no casualty figures at all, in sharp contrast to earlier months of fighting, when they announced small figures of casualties. CENSORED

The Tigers are not known to have received any large arms shipments since then, with strict naval patrolling of the northeast coast around Mullaittivu, where they usually bring in large ships. Sri Lanka has been assisted in this by intelligence activities of South Asian and even Southeast Asian nations, all of whom have become increasingly alarmed over the spectre of having a terrorist organization as a neighbor, should the LTTE score any more victories over Sri Lanka’s armed forces.

The patrolling has been maintained despite the loss of four Dvora Fast Attack Craft in the last two and a half months. Two of which were lost during actions close to shore in support of the army at Nagar Kovil and another one in an accident that was not the work of the LTTE. CENSORED

CENSORED

CENSORED

The LTTE has been recruiting new cadres heavily in both the Northern Province and the Eastern Province, but these will not be sufficiently trained for frontline warfare until later in the year.

CENSORED

However the ICRC and UNHCR have not taken the bait, although they remain concerned that civilians should not be caught up in the fighting.

Meanwhile, police investigators in Colombo have now established that the murder of Tamil political activist G.G. (Kumar) Ponnambalam. Junior, was not the work of the LTTE at all, completely ruling out Tiger involvement. Ponnambalam, who was leaning more and more towards actively supporting the LTTE was gunned down in his car in Wellawatte in broad daylight. Several suspects, all of them Sinhalese gang members, are before court in connection with the murder. However, due to the political and racial sensitivity of the issue, the police are playing down the investigations.

This week, the government’s attempt to set up an interim council in the Northeast was much in the news. However, this council, if it becomes functional at all, will not have any effect on the war itself, since the LTTE will attack all of its work and continue the war.

Soaring cost of living —
Disenchantment grows in PA camp

by Deshavimala
The United National Party (UNP) which fought for its proposal for the establishment of the independent Elections, Police and Public Service Commissions finally won this demand on Thursday night during the talks on the constitutional process at Temple Trees. The victory was certainly a feather in the UNP cap as the party has accused the present administration of having rigged all elections through intimidation and violence. UNP leader Ranil Wickremesinghe who presented counter proposals to the PA devolution package persisted with these demands until the government finally agreed to them on Thursday night.

With both sides agreeing to set these commissions, it gives hope to the UNP opposition of free elections in the future. The public too would welcome these commissions after being tired of experiencing polls that were reportedly rigged in the context of a general election a few months away from now.

At Thursday’s talks, both sides agreed to appoint sub-committees to go into the proposals with a view to study and report back early. Those in the sub-committees have been named and it is now up to these sub-committees to expedite the matter early as the general election is not far from now.

The PA and the UNP are still to discuss the electoral reforms which are expected to undergo sweeping changes.

As we have reported in this column sometime back, the government hopes to introduce the first past the post system followed by a district PR system and a national list paving the way for an additional fifty members to parliament.

The present parliament has 225 members and the government will have to bear the burden of fifty more MPs if the new system is implemented. The parliament at Kotte built to accommodate the present number will have a seating problem if additional MPs are to be accommodated.

The UNP cabinet minister in the PA government Sarath Amunugama, an ardent supporter of the proposed system has been assigned the task of tapping more UNPers to support the proposal when it is presented in parliament. There are moves by the government to bring electoral reforms as a separate issue to the House prior to presenting the new draft constitution. Amunugama and the other UNP dissidents are now working hard on this matter.

The government which temporarily set aside the Cross Over Bill, another brainchild of Amunugama now plans to make use of it if the PA needs the required number from the UNP for the two thirds majority to see through many plans before August.

The formation of the Patriotic Parliamentarian Group now looks advantageous to the PA helping it to have close links with the UNPers in that group.

The state controlled ‘Daily News" these days has dedicated its political column on page one to "The Man About Town" to boost the patriotic group and the UNPers in it while attacking UNP leader Ranil Wickremesinghe and other political columnists in the independent media. It is not a secret that this "Man About Town" is a UNP cabinet minister in the PA.

The patriotic group is viewed with suspicion by several members from both sides. They say that there is only a few in that group who are deeply concerned about the war and the security of the nation while others use that forum for political reasons. Many in those group are marked as persons who may not be returned to parliament the next time if elections are held.

There are rumours in the PA and UNP circles that those in that group back an extention of this parliament for three more years as they feel they would not come back if polls are held under any system. UNPers opposed to this group are to meet Wickremesinghe this week to launch their protest as the group had planned to meet President Kumaratunga to discuss the security of parliamentarians. The meeting of the patriotic group with Kumaratunga has raised suspicion in the minds of other UNPers as they intend to meet the President at a time the latter hopes to push through many political moves before the dissolution of the House.

Though Amunugama is keen to see through the Cross Over Bill to get more UNPers into the PA fold to help the government, several PA seniors feel that if the bill is passed it would result in more PA members going than UNPers coming. There is dissension within the PA rank and file at present. Several MPs and ministers appear unhappy over present developments where price hikes of essential commodities have adversely affected the people.

A minister described the last budget presented by Kumaratunga as a budget in ‘Disneyland’ where everything was beautiful on paper with nothing in the Treasury to implement the proposals. The sky rocketing cost of living has not yet stopped and a further increase in LP gas by Rs. 30 is on the card from tomorrow, according to official sources. Shell Gas has already sought permission for this hike and it is likely to materialise tomorrow, they said.

The further devaluation of the rupee this week has put the government in more trouble as prices of food items have increased all round. The UNP has accused the government of bad financial management plunging the country into a crisis when other countries in the region were overcoming such crises.

Interim Council

Though the government and the UNP convinced SLMC leader M. H. M. Ashraff to give up the demand for a separate Muslim Council in the East with the UNP backing Ashraff to get a referendum for the entire East on the merger, all parties at the conference were unable to convince Kumaratunga to soften her stand on the LTTE.

A week ago Kumaratunga said she will not include the LTTE in the proposed interim council as long as the latter carried arms. At last Wednesday’s constitutional talks, the issue of the interim council surfaced when the two sides discussed the unit of devolution. All parties at the table pointed out that if the LTTE was left out, the council would find it difficult to function on the ground and it will be confined to paper.

SLMC leader Ashraff, and UNP leader Ranil Wickremesinghe took up that position while the President asked how could the LTTE function in a democratic set up while waging a war and added that she would involve the LTTE only if it stopped the war.

Immediately after the discussion on Wednesday, the foreign media filed stories that the government had softened its stand to bring the LTTE into the council. Some local newspapers too ran a similar story. Kumaratunga on Friday issued a statement categorically denying that she had deviated from her earlier stand and reiterated that the LTTE had no place in a democratic set up as long as it bore arms. The present stand taken by Kumaratunga indicates that Norway has no immediate role to play in the peace process in Colombo. Kumaratunga insists that the LTTE should first lay down arms and then enter the peace process without conditions.

When the constitutional talks resumed on Wednesday the composition of the interim council and the proposed referendum on the merger were discussed. The Tamil parties moved that a referendum should only be held in Trincomalee and Batticaloa to get the views of the people. The SLMC and the UNP opposed this proposal. Minister Ashraff who had been clamouring for a separate Muslim Council in the East said it was very unreasonable as the Muslims and the Sinhalese living in areas outside Batticaloa and Trincomalee had a right to decide their future. He was backed by Wickremesinghe. Ashraff warned that if the Tamil wish was accommodated he would not give up his demand for a separate Muslim Council. This put the President in a difficulty. She then said that Ashraff was fair in his demand and the Tamil parties had to give in.

Meanwhile, there were contradictory statements from government ministers about offering the devolution package to the LTTE. The President told the political parties on Wednesday that she had no time to think of the LTTE which waged a war and had no interest in a solution and would go ahead with the package to be in parliament by mid July. PA General Secretary and Minister D. M. Jayaratne made a statement to the local print media on Thursday that the government would offer the devolution package to the LTTE for consideration before it was finalised. These conflicting reports emanating from the government itself have put political parties in a quandary regarding the PA stand on the LTTE.

The PA-UNP which are having cordial talks now may come into conflict with Kumaratunga not prepared to extend the deadline beyond June. Contentious issues like the unit of devolution and the nature of the state still hangs in the balance. When the unit of devolution was taken up last week, the government requested the UNP to submit a working paper on the subject. UNP’s constitutional expert K. N. Choksy explained to Kumaratunga that the subject involved the nature of the state and its sovereignty and wanted time to work on it. Accordingly Kumaratunga agreed but if she is to go by her deadline it would be impossible for the two sides to arrive at a decision as the issue needs time for extensive discussion. 

[ [ HOME | NEWS | POLITICS | EDITORIAL | DEFENCE | FEATURES | LEISURE | BUSINESS | ADS ]