By Prof. S. T. Hettige
University of Colombo
Mr. C. A. Chandraperuma’s Commentary on the above survey which appeared in The Island on June 13 prompted me to write this response. The main purpose of my response is to clarify certain issuesrelating to the survey, while thanking the writer for taking an active interest in the subject.

First of all, I should note that this survey was conducted by a research team under my direction and I take responsibility for what I have presented on the survey. The University of Colombo is simply the institution to which I am affiliated. Secondly, the survey was not intended to find out the level of popularity of the PA or any other party. If a particular interest group quotes the data out of context to its own advantage, the researcher cannot prevent that and he can only publish a clarification.

I agree that the way one formulates survey questions can have an effect on the outcome. On the other hand, one can dispute any formulation saying that it could have been done differently. In the case of the present survey, questions were formulated in such a way as to determine the perceived changes in the political environment following the last general election, not to test the popularity of political parties as such.

I agree that it would have been good if we had specified the critical problems, without leaving them open. On the other hand, when one refers to critical problems, one naturally refers to well known problems such as the North-East conflict, cost of living, unemployment and the issues of political culture. People in this country are living with these problems and they can easily recognise them.

In the last survey conducted in September last year, we asked people to list such critical problems and a majority of people mentioned the North-East conflict followed by economic problems, etc. Since this conflict has not been resolved, we assumed that people still consider it as a critical issue. If this assumption is unwarranted, we are prepared to accept it.

Since our objective was not just to find out the popularity of various parties but to determine the level of public confidence in the established political parties, we asked the respondents whether there were political parties in the country which in their opinion had the capability to solve the critical problems facing the country. Only about 66 per cent of the respondents felt that there are such parties. In other words, about a third of the respondents had no faith in any of the parties. This is an indication of the nature of the present political climate in the country.

We asked those respondents who expressed faith which party in their opinion was capable of addressing the critical issues. While about 46 per cent of the respondents who expressed confidence in major parties mentioned the PA as the party capable of addressing the critical issues, going by the results of our earlier surveys, we assumed that the people were still thinking about the North-East conflict. If they were thinking of economic problems, they would not have mentioned the PA because in our earlier survey, people felt that the UNP was more capable of dealing with economic issues. Given the present economic situation in the country, it is highly unlikely that the people had economic issues in mind when they mentioned PA.

According to the present survey, the only political party which has recorded a significant increase in its support base is the JVP. The proportion of people who expressed faith in the JVP increased from 12 per cent to 17 per cent between the two surveys. On the other hand, if one takes the entire sample of respondents and work out the percentages of those who express faith in one or another of the main political parties, no party has more than a third of the people expressing faith in it. For instance, only 30 per cent of the entire sample felt that the PA was capable of addressing critical issues. While the UNP recorded about 22 per cent, 11 per cent of the respondents expressed confidence in the JVP. In other words, no political party has overwhelming endorsement by the respondents. About a third of the respondents expressed no confidence in any of the parties, indicating a very high degree of uncertainty as to the actual outcome of a future election. Most of those who have no faith in any of the established parties are not going to abstain from voting and it is hazardous to predict their behaviour.

So, to jump to the unwarranted conclusion that the survey indicated overwhelming support for a particular political party is to engage in a simplistic interpretation of the data at best. If at all, the data shows that no party enjoys the support of a reasonable majority of people in the country.

As regards the question as to whether a change of government can lead to an improvement of governance in the country, a negative response to this question by a majority of respondents cannot be interpreted to mean that these people want to maintain the status geo. It simply indicates that they no longer have any illusions about the outcome of change of governments. This is based on their lived experience: the change of government in 1994 has not led to a significant improvement in governance in the country as is evident from widespread election-related violence and irregularities, abuse of power, nepotism, favouritism, political interference, corruption, misuse of public resources, etc. People in this country seem to think that elections alone are grossly inadequate to promote good governance and social justice. There is a need for drastic institutional reforms and various safeguards against abuse of power, malpractices, corruption, etc.

Overall, the survey results point to a widespread public dissatisfaction with the current political situation in the country. The low level of public confidence in the established political parties, low level of legitimacy of the incumbent regime, increasing support for JVP which concentrates on issues of political culture and social justice, etc. illustrate this point. To suggest that the survey paints a favourable picture for the government is far from the truth though I admit that certain state controlled media have made such an attempt. This naturally is beyond the control of the researcher.