By Namini Wijedasa
Sri Lanka was slammed Saturday with its longest blackouts ever but engineers and experts say that years of inaction on long-term power generation plans has now left the country with no option but to grit its teeth and bear it.

Power interruptions were raised from three-and-half to eight hours and engineers say that promises from various quarters to right the situation in two weeks cannot be taken seriously. "Even if generators were imported, it would at least take a month to install the connections and have them operational," said U. D Jayawardena, a private sector power supplier.

With dependency on thermal power increasing, there are also concerns about the rising cost of electricity generation, although there is no decision yet on hiking tariffs.

"There is no solution," said Dr. Susantha Perera, head of the Ceylon Electricity Board Engineers’ Union (CEBEU). "If we don’t get rains within the next few days... not even months... there is no way out of very extensive power cuts."

The hydropower reservoirs are all but dry and there is no emergency power generation to speak of. The last arrangement under which the CEB purchased power from Agrico expired in June, and the board did not renew it due to a Rs.8.6 billion overdraft. The overdraft is now Rs. 10 billion.

Meanwhile, a 115 mega watt gas turbine at Kelanitissa which generated 2.5 million units of electricity a day broke down about two weeks ago and requires a major repair which will not be through for at least three months.

At present, policy makers are promoting the idea that a good shower in catchment areas is the solution to every power generation problem, but other Ceylon Electricity Board officials point out that a "substantial" downpour, while it may help deal with the immediate crisis, will in no way solve the wider, long-term problem.

That has been exacerbated by politics, bureaucratic bungling, maladministration and plan failure to priorities. Come 2004, there will be a similar crisis in the power sector, the engineers predicted after studying available data and trends.

"We have a responsibility to tell the people the truth," Perera said.

A clear example of how politics has abused the power sector can be seen in the rapid electrification of villages, particularly around election time.

"We are not saying this should not be done," said an engineer who did not wish to be named. "It is good that villages receive electricity. But politicians do it at a rate, with no consideration to the fact that increased electrification leads to a corresponding rise in demand, something the power sector is just not geared to meet."

In other words, politicians give "light" to the villages but they do not put in place generation measures to meet the additional demand. They also ignore the fact that such steps have to be taken urgently.

Another example of political meddling is the manner in which policy makers — government — ignored repeated warnings by the CEB that the failure to immediately introduce power cuts would lead to a worse situation that may spiral out of control. This has been proven true.

"If we had started power cuts, say, two months ago, we may have been able to control the situation with hour-long power cuts at present," said another senior engineer. Instead, power interruptions were put off. Even after they were introduced, instructions were given to suspend them for cricket matches, political speeches, even religious festivals and pageants. "It’s ridiculous," he said.

A trend at present is to blame the rains. "But we cannot say that the dilemma is entirely due to lack of rainfall," said Dr. Perera. "Certainly, that’s one part of the problem but we have formulated plans to deal with this sort of situation. Every year, we update our plans to meet increased demand. We also plan for worst-case scenarios like drought."

But this annual review and updating has simply become an academic exercise, he grieved. The least policy makers could do is to look at the plans and create a dialogue, perhaps criticise. Even that does not take place, let alone implementation.

The delayed coal-power plant at Norochcholai, with its 900-mega watt capacity, is now being mooted as a possible solution but even if that project is immediately launched, it can only be fully operational by 2006.

Meanwhile, the funds are yet to be obtained from the Japanese government, a process which CEB engineers feel can be speeded up with personal intervention from President Chandrika Kumaratunga or Foreign Minister Lakshman Kadirgamar.

The Japanese government had once passed the funds, but this arrangement lapsed while Sri Lanka was grappling with environmentalists and the Bishop of Chilaw. Now, the fears of the Bishop have been laid to rest by an independent consultant who conducted a study which proved that the plant will not affect the hallowed St. Anne’s shrine or bode an environmental disaster.

In the meantime, the Upper Kothmale Hydro Power project is also on the hold for want of funds. A request has been made to the Japanese government.

The present power crisis is being compared to that of 1996. But in 1996, the Mahaweli hydro power reservoirs did not dry up. It was Laxapana which was most hit. There is a reversal this year, with the former — which has the largest capacity for generation — almost completely dry, and Laxapana still has some water.

Engineers fear that if water levels fall further, the Mahaweli power generation plants will have to be shut down altogether.