By our Defence Correspondent
The LTTE leadership has ordered a series of attacks to be launched in Colombo and other areas outside the northeast, in a bid to draw army troops away from the Jaffna Peninsula in the run up to the December 5 General Elections, according to sources in the north.

The Tigers have been building up forces on the Pooneryn Peninsula in the north, preparing to launch an attack on Jaffna town, as this column has revealed in the last two weeks.

LTTE leader Velupillai Prabhakaran is anxious to make his presence felt during the election campaign, and believes that this could be his best chance to retake Jaffna, before the United National Party comes to power as many expect will happen. UNP leader Ranil Wickremesinghe has already voiced his intention to negotiate with the Tigers, and once negotiations begin, the LTTE will be unlikely to launch major attacks for fear of jeopardizing the talks. There is also a very high likelihood of a ceasefire between the two sides during any peace talks.

It is not clear whether last Monday’s failed suicide bombing attack in Narahenpita was part of this campaign. But it is very likely that it was. However, intelligence has warned that there are several more Black Tiger units in Colombo.

The LTTE has built up a huge arsenal of weapons and ammunition over the past few months, with as many as four different shipments having arrived by sea, according to sources in the Wanni. Three of these shipments had been unloaded off the Mullaittivu coast, and the fourth was off the Batticaloa coast, sources said.

Navy chief Vice Admiral Daya Sandagiri admitted in a newspaper interview that was published last Sunday, that the LTTE had tried to get several shipments through off the Mullaittivu coast and that most of the Tiger boats that had been intercepted and destroyed by the navy’s blockade "Operation Waruna Kirana," had carried fuel. It is well known in the Wanni that the LTTE is not short of fuel, and this is a very low priority type of cargo. It is therefore more than likely that the more important types of cargo, such as sophisticated weapons systems and stocks of ammunition, had already been sent through before the stocks of fuel were sent.

Sources said the LTTE is awaiting at least one more shipment of supplies in the next few weeks.

This column has repeatedly pointed out the need for the armed forces to reconsider their strategy in Operation Waruna Kirana. All too often, convoys of LTTE boats have been detected only when they are returning to Mullaittivu, which means that they slipped out undetected. Many convoys have slipped back through the navy’s blockade without being detected.

The truth is that the navy does not have enough warships for the type of operation that it has undertaken off Mullaittivu. What the planners of this strategy have forgotten is that the navy’s primary task is to keep the half a million people in the Jaffna Peninsula supplied with their everyday needs. NAVY Warships are spending days and weeks escorting slow cargo vessels from Trincomalee to Kankesanthurai. Yet, the navy has no choice in the matter, since this is the only supply line to Jaffna, with air supply being of negligible quantities.

The constant patrolling, up and down the Mullaittivu coast has caused severe problems and breakdowns for the machinery on board vessels. In any case the Waruna Kirana blockade can only be maintained for a few more weeks, before the raging North East Monsoon winds will make it impossible for many of the smaller navy craft to stay at sea for long periods.

The concentration of naval vessels for these two tasks escort duty and Mullaittivu blockade, has left other areas dangerously exposed. There is no naval patrolling at all off the Batticaloa and Ampara district coastlines, where the LTTE has landed several shiploads of supplies over the past few years. Patrolling of the Palk Strait has also been greatly reduced, as warships have been withdrawn for duties off Mullaittivu.

Much of this ammunition has now been stockpiled in a vast system of underground bunkers and storehouses in the northern Wanni, in close proximity to the Pooneryn area, sources said. However, a large number of the LTTE’s fighting cadres are not near Pooneryn, but have been moved to the east, specifically the Batticaloa district, sources said.

It is most likely that these cadres have been given the mission of staging several major attacks on softer targets such as police stations, to create some impact during the election campaign. However, these cadres could very quickly shift back to the north, in time for any attack on Jaffna town.

In theory, army troops are not needed to keep the peace in the country during elections, since there are sufficient numbers of police personnel. However, with many police officers actively siding with one of the major political parties, the police themselves usually become part of the problem. If this causes violence, the army is needed to keep the peace. This is true of the situation both immediately before the election and also after the result is announced when the victorious side may go on the rampage against the losers.

The army’s top brass knows all too well that election times are when their troops need to be extra vigilant against the LTTE, and it is accepted that soldiers should not be moved out of the northeast. However, it is also common knowledge that many senior officers are also actively campaigning for the major political parties, instead of doing their jobs in fighting the war.