By Neville Ladduwahetty
In all probability, the forthcoming election will result in a coalition government headed by the SLFP or the UNP. However, neither coalition will likely gain a two-third majority. Consequently, no issues of significance would be resolved without the cooperation of the opposition. These circumstances would therefore not be any different to what existed during the tenure of the previous parliament. Unless specific measures are adopted to alter this dynamic, the country and the nation will drift along, one day at a time, aimlessly and without direction as it has been doing for some time.

The reason why coalitions led by the SLFP or the UNP are unlikely to secure size able majorities, even if they fall short of a two-third, is perhaps because of the electorate’s perceptions of both parties. These perceptions are that while the economic situation in the country would improve under a UNP led coalition, there is apprehension and uncertainty as to how such a coalition would resolve issues relating to the Tamil community. By contrast, the electorate is aware that a SLFP led coalition is likely to devolve power to regional units on the lines of the aborted package, but has little confidence in respect of its ability to bring economic relief to the country. This is the dilemma of the electorate.

Ideally, the electorate would wish for the strengths of both coalitions together with that of the emerging JVP to be combined. This wish was reflected in the recent demand for a national government or a national partnership from several sections of society. Forming such a unified government would not have any meaning unless there is agreement on a unified agenda, particularly in regard to issues relating to the Tamil community. It is only a unified agenda that can make the country move forward, because within it would be contained the interests that are cherished by the overwhelming majority of the Sri Lankan nation.

Unless and until these coalitions together with the JVP arrive at a memorandum of understanding as to the economic and political direction Sri Lanka is to follow, the country would continue to flounder aimlessly. Moreover, without definition and certainty on the part of the overwhelming majority, issues relating to the Tamil community would remain unresolved in a state of limbo. Negotiations with the political proxies of the LTTE, the new alliance of Tamil political parties, would not be substantive unless there is a unified understanding among the rest in the country. Similarly, negotiations with the LTTE would also be meaningless unless their political proxies receive a mandate from the electorate at the forthcoming election.

THE TAMIL ALLIANCE

The agreement to nominate the LTTE as the sole representatives of the Tamil community by the alliance of four Tamil parties - the TULF, the TELO, the ACTC and the EPRLF - is very significant because of its far reaching implications. A mandate given by the electorate to this alliance would not only endorse the LTTE as the representatives of the Tamil community, but also would endorse the LTTE’s agenda, which is the creation of a separate state. On the other hand, if the alliance does not receive a mandate, it would be an expression of rejection by the Tamil community as to the LTTE’s right to represent them. The future of the LTTE would then be an open question. The forthcoming election would thus determine the future of the LTTE in the affairs of the Tamil community, and would impact on the future structure of the Sri Lankan state, because a mandate to the alliance would be a mandate to the LTTE to pursue its agenda.

If the alliance receives a mandate, the question arises as to whether the elected representatives who have publicly endorsed support for the LTTE and their goals, can be members of the Sri Lanka parliament since they are required by the constitution to take an oath of allegiance on the unitary character of the Sri Lankan state. A more basic question is whether a candidate whose proclaimed political agenda violates the constitution in regard to the creation of a separate state, can be even permitted to contest in an election. Whatever may be the answers to these questions, and the outcome of the election as far as the Tamil community is concerned, the rest of the elected representatives must be prepared with a unified agenda or a memorandum of understanding (MOU), if the country is to move forward.

A MEMORANDUM OF UNDERSTANDING

An MOU that represents the views of the overwhelming majority would be invaluable whatever the outcome at the forthcoming election. If the political proxies of the LTTE receive a mandate, the outcome of negotiations would then be a compromise between the position as stated in the MOU and that taken by the political proxies of the LTTE. Without an MOU, negotiations would take place with only the stand taken by the LTTE as presented by their political proxies, and the counter position taken by the leading coalition; a position that would represent only a section of the Sri Lankan nation. If the political proxies of the LTTE do not receive a mandate, negotiations could be conducted with other Tamil parties from a stated position of the MOU.

The MOU should confine itself only to concepts and not to specifics. For instance, the sanctity of the territorial integrity of the country as an indisputable fact should not be compromised. A second concept should be the acceptance of the principle that decisions would be based on choices made by the People and not by some stated position of individuals or groups whoever they profess to represent. Based on this principle, the MOU could identify the issues to which this principle would apply, as for instance, the size of the regional unit, whether the state should be structured to suit decentralized administration, or whether greater regional powers should be granted through a process of devolution. The MOU could also address the power-sharing arrangements at the center.

The very process of developing an MOU sets in place a structure that constantly can be referred to back and forth during negotiations. This would facilitate the whole negotiation process. It also would be unlike the procedures followed in the past. The failed pacts of the past (Bandaranaike/Chelvanayakam and Dudley Senanayake/Chelvanayakam pacts) have reflected adversely on the Sinhala leadership, instead of a recognition of the failure of the process. The process required endorsement by the public subsequent to agreement by the leaders. The lack of public endorsement was either because the leaders failed to read the mood of the public or to persuade and convince them. Either way, the process did not provide the opportunity for the agreements to be modified in order to make them acceptable.

CONCLUSION

Through threat and coercion the LTTE has created a political front, the Tamil alliance, to contest the forthcoming election. The necessity for a political front was perhaps brought about by the new international "war" against terrorism following the terrorist attack on America. The alliance thus becomes allied with the LTTE and is political in character, as opposed to the LTTE who are a recognized terrorist group. This is analogous to Sinn Fein and the IRA.

The alliance and the LTTE would do everything in its power to secure a mandate. To ensure success they would have to hijack this election. The methods resorted to would probably be as illegitimate as the LTTE’s attempt to hijack a separate state through terrorism. The Sri Lankan nation and the Tamil community in particular would have to exercise extreme caution to ensure that their rights are not usurped by the LTTE and the alliance.

Whatever the outcome of this election as far as the Tamil parties are concerned, any negotiations should be conducted with whoever receives a mandate legitimately, whether it is the acknowledged political proxies of the LTTE or any other. In any event, there is no justification to negotiate with the LTTE directly, since they now have the alliance as their political proxy to do their bidding. Negotiating directly with acknowledged terrorists such as the LTTE under any circumstances, would run counter to the international efforts to counter terrorism.

The forthcoming elections may present a rare opportunity to evolve a political solution if the election is permitted to be conducted freely and fairly. In preparation for such an opportunity, the political parties that represent the overwhelming majority of the Sri Lankan electorate should be prepared with an MOU that represents a unified arrangement in regard to the political future of the country.

An MOU should represent more than a statement of what a coalition led by a political party can negotiate on behalf of the nation . It should represent a bold statement of what the overwhelming majority wants by way of definition and direction, and the resolve to achieve it. The MOU should represent the commitment of the nation to a defined political future that guarantees security and stability under which it can prosper. Without such definition the entire nation would continue to lose hope and will be forced to drift aimlessly in despair The upcoming election therefore, presents an opportunity which if taken advantage of with imagination, can lead the country on to good fortune.