Whither Sri Lanka?

Whither Sri Lanka? This is the question that Sri Lankan voters will be asking themselves today. PA supporters will quite emphatically answer: To Chandrika. UNPers will say: Positively to Ranil. Cynics and even some of the rational minded would say: To hell. Even if the verdict today will be for one of the two mentioned first, unless they come to some kind of compromise, after the election, the third prediction is the likeliest.

A paradox of Sri Lankan politics is that the voter openly states that all politicians are rogues but continues to vote for them. In other countries too politicians are known to be liars, thieves, knaves and the like but there is no overall commitment to them. In most western countries the voting is around fifty percent of the electorate whereas we record an average of around 75 to 85 percent going up to 90 percent. Come whatever crime committed by our parties or leaders,party loyalty prevails. The consequence has been that the country is fast accelerating towards the nether world.

Astrologers have not yet made their predictions public on today’s election but they will, as usual, claim that they did predict the winners. Political pundits are hemming and hawing as they did during recent elections saying: ‘It’s close’ but public opinion polls and bookies are giving UNP the lead.

What makes them tip the UNP that has been defeated on nine consecutive occasions, the winner this time? Can Ranil Wickremasinghe this time do a Robert Bruce of Scotland - who succeeded only on his seventh attempt to regain the crown? The thinking among some appear to be that Ranil having been vanquished on nine occasions by the Iron Lady will triumph this time because he has already deeply dented her armour by defeating her in parliament.

Ranil Wickremasinghe since he became leader of the UNP ,after its leadership was decimated by Velupillai Prabhakaran has shown great determination and tenacity despite the consecutive defeats he had suffered. Faced with dissension in his own ranks, he had been able to hold the party together for seven years while staving off challenges to his leadership. Now having defeated the government of President Kumaratunga in parliament, compelling her to dissolve paraliment, he is making his bid for leadership with the assistance of a number of minority parties such as the SLMC, CWC and the Tamil National Alliance.

He has also survived attempts to implicate him in criminal acts such as the alleged torture chambers at Batalanda where JVP terrorists were held. Even a Special Presidential Commission appointed to investigate the events at Batalanda could not find evidence to implicate him. He has presented a programme of action that envisages a new era of hi-tech where the youth of the country will find their place in modern industry, which will be set up with foreign investment.

Mr Wickremasinghe’s major blemish has been the welcome he has accorded to some of the PA dissidents such as ex- ministers Messrs S.B. Dissanayake and Mahinda Wijesekera,whom the UNP had earlier accused of rigging previous elections and being unsavoury characters. Realpolitik may have induced him to accept them but it does take away much of his credibility as a leader.Prof.

G.L.Peiris has proved to be a good workhorse and an intellectual adornment for the UNP even though the publication of his eulogies on PA economics in his budget speeches in the state media does prove somewhat embarrassing.

On the other hand, President Kumaratunga appears to be in grave difficulties, it being always difficult to defend a government that has been in power for long years and one which has been defeated in parliament. She has had her defeats and moments of glory. She won the plaudits of the outside world and pacifists in the country when she declared a ;Mandate for {eace’ and produced the

Devolution Package for resolution of the North-East conflict. But the Devolution Package also resulted in widespread opposition to her within the country. The LTTE breaking of peace talks and taking to terrorism increased her stature in the western world although she faced humiliation at home. But the regaining of the Jaffna peninsular from the LTTE once again restored her prestige.

Since then, she has been going ‘down the pallang’ with the military suffering defeat after defeat, the capture of Elephant Pass and the LTTE knocking on the gates of Jaffna and finally the destruction of the Katunayake military and international airports. The handling of the economy appears not to be her strong point with the stock market plunging ever since she took office in 1994. The economy has hit rock bottom and her Minister of Power and Energy, Gen. Anuruddha Ratwatte was caught napping with a severe shortfall of power that plunged the country into darkness. This is in addition to the disastrous military defeats caused by wrong military strategies and inefficient leadership by Gen. Ratwatte’s commanders.

President Kumaratunga’s success has been in foreign affairs where her Foreign Minister Lakshman Kadirgamar successfully lobbied against the LTTE and had it proscribed in three major countries: United States, Canada and Britain. While the changed attitude of western nations towards international terrorism and the growing tentacles of LTTE’s international terrorism that threatened the security of these nations were the main reasons for the proscription of the LTTE , the persistent efforts of President Kumaratunga and Mr. Kadirgamar kept the LTTE in focus as an international terrorist organisation.

The military debacles and inability to defeat the LTTE, the economy registering near zero growth and failure at governance as spotlighted by the International Bar Council’s report ( published in full yesterday in The Island) are matters to which President Kumaratunga cannot give convincing replies.

She has tried hard to prove a nexus between the LTTE and the UNP during the current election campaign but has failed to do so. Yesterday, the UNP leader pointed out that the position of the two parties towards de-proscription of the LTTE was one and the same (See page 1).

While those who vote UNP today, will have to place their trust in the UNP and Mr. Wickremasinghe, what promises have President Kumaratunga to give? Could she with the policies and programmes that she has been carrying out during her second term-last year - see the country out of the woods?

The possibility of either the PA or the UNP not scoring a clear majority and having to seek the assistance of minority parties too needs consideration by the voter. Despite the PA government collapsing after the probationary honeymoon of the PA- JVP, indications are that both parties are willing to go into an embrace once again. The de- stabilising effect of the JVP on the PA was well seen when it caused PA stalwarts to walk out of the party. The return of Mr. Somawansa Amarasinghe, the only surviving member of the politbureau of the JVP and the prospects of an armed uprising being raised once again opens up possibilities of Sri Lankan politics returning to the era of corpses hanged on lamp posts, decapitated heads nailed to name boards and bodies burning on tyres on the wayside. On the other hand the PA has been insisting on a nexus between the UNP and the LTTE albeit no evidence has been forwarded.

In these circumstances the best thing that could happen is for co-operation between the PA and the UNP whichever party gets the majority.

Survival politics of the PA and the collapse of the government are sure proof that coalition governments with minority parties or with the JVP are fragile and lead to the tail wagging the dog. It inevitably results in the severance of tail and body . We once again commend the proposal the UNP leader made yesterday that the seven- year- old confrontational and vituperative politics be ended and the two main parties co-operate in the interests of the nation.

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