At the last Presidential elections held last year, there was a definite swing towards the UNP which however was not reflected in the election result. The UNP was deprived of victory in December 1999 due to three reasons. Firstly, the minority parties were with Chandrika at that time. Secondly, the LTTE’s aborted assassination attempt sent many sympathy votes in Chandrika’s direction and finally, the PA managed to stuff a minimum of 400,000 ‘hora votes’ into the ballot boxes.

The long Winter

I had the privilege of spending the entire Parliamentary election campaign last year in jail where I got to know quite a number of PA type ‘chandiyas’. In the Magazine prison, I shared my cell with one of Beddagane Sanjeewa’s gang members, the late ‘Thatta’ Asoka. He was a nice chap but he was killed soon after being released. What struck me was that every PA ‘Chandiya’ whom I had the privilege to meet had stuffed boxes at the Wayamba Provincial Council election and also at the Presidential election of 1999. They freely told me how they had done the operation. I just made some rough calculations with their help and came up with a minimum figure of about 400,000 ‘hora votes’ at that election. The UNP was being kept out of power artificially.

The artificially suppressed victory of the UNP during the past few years came out into the open on the 5th December resulting in a resounding victory for the UNP despite all the intimidation and killings and stuffing of ballot boxes. In some districts where violence was at its worst, in Kurunegala, Gampaha and Kandy the UNP has still won. Given the odds against which the UNP prevailed, this victory is not second to J.R.Jayawardene’s grand entry of 1977. The mood seems to be the same as in 1977. I still remember how I as a kid listened to the UNP’s victory being announced over radio in 1977. The eerie feeling of ‘deja vu’ was heightened by Sirasa TV featuring 1970’s hit songs by Clarence Wijewardene.

For seven years we heard the constant jeer of the PA, "Ranilta be!" (Ranil can’t). They stuffed the boxes and then shouted from the rooftops that so long as Ranil is the leader the UNP will never come into power. But events have proved them wrong. Ranil spent seven years in the opposition and was not able to defeat the PA during that period. J.R.Jayawardene too had to spend seven years in the opposition. No leader in post independence history has been reviled the way Ranil was during the past seven years. If he got on to the stage, he didn’t seem to wave his hand in the proper way. When he spoke, his voice was not impressive enough. Even when he said the correct thing, he was made fun of by his political opponents.

Take that "gold chains and bracelets" issue for instance. What Ranil said was absolutely correct. When economic prosperity becomes manifest in a village, the first signs are improvements in the way young people dress. And most young women buy clothes and jewelry with their first salaries. When Ranil mentioned this basic fact on the stage, he immediately become the butt of jokes. Clearly, charisma was not one of Mr. Wickremasinghe’s attributes. He has been reviled and scoffed at for the past seven years as no other leader before him. Since that past is now behind him, he should be able to rise above harbouring any resentment. For quite some time to come, the destiny of Sri Lanka will be in Ranil’s hands.

This is not the first time that I have seen leaders rising from below zero to unimaginable heights. In 1990, I was in the Bahujana Nidahas Peramuna of Chandrika Kumaratunga. Chandrika had just been ignominiously kicked out of the Sri Lanka Mahajana Party. She had formed the BNP but there was nobody to even write a news report that the daughter of two prime ministers had formed a new party. Ultimately, it was I who planted a long feature article on the BNP in this newspaper. When that article was published, a senior journalist asked me whether I was mad to write feature articles about some insignificant splinter group! But four years later, Chandrika was in power and considered literally invincible.

The same thing has happened in the case of Ranil Wickremasinghe. Three months ago, a lot of people thought he will not be able to win an election. Some were even looking for alternatives from within the UNP. But now that he has won against incredible odds, he will be considered ‘invincible’ from now on. And Ranil will be in power for much longer than the PA because he won’t have the problems of governance that the PA had. Such is the way of politics. All those who wanted to see the UNP winning, should thank Chandrika and the JVP for weakening the PA beyond recovery. The ‘parivasa’ arrangement that Chandrika entered into in her desperation was the main reason for the UNP’s overwhelming victory.

The ‘parivasa’ disaster

At the JVP’s insistence, Chandrika sacked about fifty PA Deputy Ministers and demoted about 25 cabinet Ministers. All these are people who had votes and supporters who looked up to them. In one fell swoop, the entire middle rank of the PA was knocked out. When election time came, the PA had nobody to campaign for them. One of the most salient features of this election was that the PA had no election campaign worth talking of. They had very few TV and newspaper ads. The PA’s candidates were not fighting even for preference votes. The only campaign the PA had was to unleash violence against the UNP. When I toured the Matara district during the campaign, I found that there was no PA political campaign such but teams of goons were demolishing and burning UNP campaign offices every night. Temporary sheds are constructed at the rate of about two or three to each polling booth area and these structures were the target of the PA goon squads. When election day came, the UNP had already won against the PA. The only issue to be decided on the 5th was to see whether the UNP would be able to prevail against the Presidential Security Division and the thugs on election day!

We have to thank Chandrika for the total lack of a PA campaign. It is because of Chandrika that even the grass roots supporters lost faith in the PA. When she sacked so many of her ministers and deputy ministers at the behest of the JVP, it would be natural for PA supporters to gravitate where the greater power seemed to be. If the PA was doing what the JVP wanted them to do, it is natural for PA loyalists to want to identify with the real source of power. It is clear that many PA votes have gone to the JVP at this election. The PA in fact is so debilitated by this hemorrhaging of support that to rebuild the SLFP will be a Herculean task for whoever takes over as leader after Chandrika. The JVP has been the undeserving beneficiary of Chandrika’s stupidity. From now on, she will not be able to appear at SLFP gatherings without being hooted at. Chandrika has ensured that the SLFP will not rise again for a long long time!

What afterall did she gain from the so called ‘parivase’? Se got only 35 extra days in power. Those were the 35 days that ruined the SLFP. If she had agreed to an ALL PARTY government under Ranil, the SLFP would have survived to fight another day. But she tried to score petty points against Ranil by rejecting his offer and joining up with the JVP. Thereby, the JVP was able to end its traditional isolation from the SLFP vote base which regarded the JVP as "Che Guvarakarayas" because they tried to overthrow the SLFP government of 1971. By entering into a parivase, the JVP opened up the SLFP vote base for exploitation. I heard that when JVP went canvassing to villages they would visit PA households and tell them, "If you want your government to be in power, vote for us - it is we who saved your government from defeat!" To the simple minded villager, there was no difference between voting for the PA or voting for the JVP. Besides, the JVP appeared to be calling the shots.

The PA, in their abject servility and anxiety to curry favour with the JVP, didn’t educate their voter on the fact that the JVP was a different political entity. The Prime Minister sensed what was going to happen and at least at his last meeting, he warned his voters not to vote for "minor parties" and deprive the PA of a bonus seat. But it was too late. The JVP took away some of the PA votes and what would have been a victory for the UNP became a landslide even in spite of all the violence unleashed by the PA. If the PA held a free and fair election as DB and Ranil did in 1994, the UNP’s victory would have been beyond description. Anyway, the UNP won against incredible odds. It is the fervent wish of every sensible person in this country that the new UNP regime does well and lasts a long, long time.

There is that old saying, "You get what you deserve". Considering the incredible odds against which the people of this country managed to elect a new government into power, they definitely deserve good government and prosperity. May I take this opportunity to convey my heartiest congratulations and warmest felicitations to the new leaders of this country.