By Dr. Tilak Siyambalapitiy

Power cuts are back exactly as expected. As usual, the weather will be blamed again for the continuing crisis hiding the real truth. According to CEB’s plan, which if implemented would ensure a steady electricity supply even with the lowest rainfall, we should by now have two new power plants fully operational at Kelanitissa. Out of the total 330 Megawatts of these two power plants, only 110 MW is presently undergoing test runs. The full 330 MW should have been operational from January this year, and reasons for their delay are now history.

The real reasons for the crisis are the delays in deciding on new power plant projects and not the low rainfall.

At this moment, there are six decisions to be made about the electricity sector, which will ensure gradual and speedy recovery over the next five years. Years of indecision cannot be corrected in a hurry. Each one of the six decisions is equally important and should be made urgently and simultaneously. They are not mutually exclusive, but complimentary.

(1) Decide to restore financial stability of the CEB by increasing electricity prices, however unpopular it would be CEB is reportedly indebted to various Banks to the tune of Rs. 16,000 million, which is about 50% of the annual turnover. Keeping CEB bankrupt discourages any investment in the sector, state or private.

(2) Decide whether or not emergency power plants would be brought to supplement the supply and remove the present blackouts. The present blackouts will have to continue throughout year 2002. Emergency diesel engine purchase and their operation to immediately remove blackouts is likely to cost about Rs. 20,000 million for year 2002. It would be required to explain the true status of the sector to electricity customers, and request them to pay-up, if the public and the industry need no blackouts.

(3) Decide to proceed with the 300 MW power plant in the CEB plan, at Kerawalapitiya. This power plant was to minimise blackouts predicted for year 2004 onwards, owing to the continuing delay of the Puttalam coal power plant which was scheduled to operate from January 2004. This decision is now delayed for over two years, while the Government was experimenting with various ideas such as natural gas.

(4) Decide to proceed with the Puttalam coal-fired power plant, to begin producing electricity from January 2007. The power plant was to be approved by the then Hon.

Minister of Finance by 31st March 1999 and the decision is now over 1000 days behind schedule, costing the economy Rs 44.8 million for each day of delay. The total economic loss has now exceeded Rs 45,OOO million, which is equal to the investment on the first phase of the power plant project.

(5) Decide on the location area of the second coal-fired power plant, which should be operational by year 2010 Initiate the required studies and the clearance procedure.

(6) Decide to implement the Upper Kotmale hydroelectric project immediately. This project is six years behind schedule.

These decisions are required for the electricity sector to support a modest economic growth of 5% per year. If the Government expects a faster economic growth, and reconnection of the Northern Province to the grid, the requirements would be even more.

Each decision is equally important and urgent, including the fifth one about the second coal-fired power plant required to be operational by year 2010.

On decision (4), there have been studies after studies, ever since the Government of 1992 decided to locate it in the general area of Puttalam. The most recent study, commissioned by the Government in August 2001 at the request and active participation of the Bishop of Chilaw, provided a so-called second opinion on the project. I quote below the conclusions of this second opinion, without comment.

"The conclusions of the review of the results of engineering services for the proposed coal fired power plant at Noraicholai (ie Puttalam) are as follows:

(a) The power plant project is found to be well designed according to state-of-the- art and best international practice for coal fired power plants.

(b) The Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) Is covering all relevant aspects in a comprehensive manner and in accordance with intenational standards. The general environmental evaluations, based on experience from a range of power plant projects in various countries is that the project as designed will be able to operate without causing significant disturbance and nuisance to the nearby population.

(c) With respect to the coal import system, it Is strongly recommended to change from the long ocean jetty solutions to a transhipment/barge transfer solution with a barge landing harbour/jetty at the coastline in front of the power plant. This solution is assessed as being environmentally acceptable, economic/financially viable and operationally advantageous. As regards security issues and nuisance to local fishing, the barge solution is also found to be a better solution than the long ocean jetty."

Unless the above six decisions are made immediately and simultaneously, and vigorously implemented, the following is what we can expect.

December 2001: The present Government blamed the previous Government for the Blackouts Year 2002. Blackouts 3-5 hours throughout the year (except probably Nov-Dec.)

Year 2003. No blackouts

Year 2004: Blackouts under low rainfall (reason. Puttalam power plant blocked, Kerawalapitiya project stagnant)

Year 2005: Blackouts 6-8 hours (reason: Puttalam power plant blocked)

Year 2006: Near shutdown of the electricity supply system (reason: Puttalam power plant blocked)

Year 2007: A new Government blames the present Government for the power crisis

The Government can also decide to continue to pacify and give-in to the most unreasonable demands of religious leaders, environmentalists, promoters of expensive power plants, and let the misery continue.

The Government can also say options have to be studied, trade-offs have to be evaluated, and study and study these projects all over again, to finally realise that there are no options, and let the misery continue.

The Government can also appoint various committees such as the Cabinet subcommittees, Power Committee, Project Committees, BOI Committees, etc, etc. and undermine the authority and accountability of CEB, and let the misery continue.

The Government can politicise each one of these projects and make them election issues. Then delay the six vital decisions until the next Local Council elections (2002), and then until the next Provincial Elections (2003 or 2004), and then until the Presidential elections (2005), to find that there is hardly any time to build even a single power plant before the next parliamentary elections (2007).

The Government can also give false hopes to people that electricity will be provided with firewood, solar energy, wind energy, wave power, until it is too late to realise that these sources can only provide supplements but not the large quantities of electricity required to overcome the blackouts and support rapid economic growth.

And you will be told again and again, that the low rainfall and the low reservoir levels are the reasons for the continuing electricity crisis.