By Dr. Lareef Zubair
Sri Lanka Meteorology, Oceanography and Hydrology Network
In the end, there was not a man, woman or child living. All it had taken for the Anasazi civilization to collapse was that over a sustained period the temperature dropped by a degree and the rainfall dropped by an inch every year. The Anasazi’s were descendants of migrants from Asia who settled in the Southwest of the present USA. Here over millennia, they developed an advanced civilization with expanded irrigated agricultural production, multi-level buildings and an advanced social organization. This civilization reached its peak in the 12th Century. But then the climate began to change. It became cooler and dryer over the next century. There was drought and malnutrition. Disease and social dislocation followed. Farmers resorted to hunting. But this could not last. There was internecine fighting. By the 13th Century, the civilization had collapsed leaving magnificent ruins.

At the same time, there was a similar collapse in the hydraulic civilization in the plains of the "Rajarata" to the North-Centre of Sri Lanka. Here, an advanced civilization with irrigated agriculture, building technology, and advanced social organization collapsed. The consequences were not so dire as for the Anasazi’s. The people survived by migrating to the South and to the Hills. But, they were impoverished, the infrastructure was in ruins and the society was vulnerable to imperial domination.

The Rajarata collapse is an enigma attributed to malaria, salinization, deterioration of the administrative service, internecine conflict and war. However, all these causes resemble that of civilizations collapsing under climatic change. It also took place in a period of dramatic climatic change - the start of the "Little Ice Age".

Just as in the Rajarata, now there is internecine conflict, deterioration of governance, environmental degradation, ethnic conflict and war leaving the society vulnerable to climate change. Just as then, there are adverse changes in temperature, rainfall, hydrology and pollution. Thus we cannot ignore climate change such as global warming.

Global warming

The globe is warming as the coal and oil that had fossilized over millennia has been burnt off this century. Global warming leads to climate changes in multiple ways apart from warming up the earth. If the land gets warmer, rainfall could diminish, water could get scarce, the spread of mosquito-borne diseases is accelerated; the flavour of tea could change and ecosystems could get disrupted. These changes could be gradual or precipitous.

Colombo – Estimate from other stations Figure 1. Colombo is warming at an unprecedented rate The annual average temperature measured at Colombo (thick line) and an estimate for Colombo based on other stations (thin line) is shown. If the two lines are close then the data are reliable. The Colombo data is highly reliable save at the turn of the nineteenth century. There is a systematic increase in temperature since 1960. The measurements reached an all-time high in 1997-98. Will this rise continue? Only quality measurements can tell us. Figure prepared by Heli Bulathsinhala, University of Moratuwa and the author using data from the Department of Meteorology and the British Colonial Archives. These interpretations are consistent with those from the Department of Meteorology, University of Peradeniya, University of Mainz, the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology and the SAARC Bureau of Meteorological Research.

Consider what happened in 1997 to the magnificent coral reefs around Sri Lanka and through the tropics. 1997 was a year of the El Nino. By itself, the warming due to El Nino may not have caused much damage. But in the context of global warming it led to ocean temperatures well beyond the historical record. Such warm ocean temperatures bleached the life of the coral reefs. This is heartbreaking by itself. But the splendour of the corals is only a symptom of the health of the ecosystem. It will impact the coastal communities who harness the wealth of the sea and tourism. It is also terrible news for coastal protection. As the sea level rises due to global warming, the first impact will be on the coast and it will not even have the live coral reefs to offer the protection it enjoyed for millennia.

Gases that lead to global warming has been pumped into the atmosphere by the industrialized countries that obtained the fruits of polluting the common atmosphere. They still continue to do so with additional help from countries such as China and India. Some in temperate countries argue that they would have benefits to go along with the problems of global warming such as milder winters and improved agriculture. These countries see a much wider range of temperatures than countries such as Sri Lanka and the ecosystem and society have greater resilience to climate change.

The damage to the tropical coral reef ecosystem in 1997 is a case in point of both the lack of tropical resilience and precipitous environmental damage due to climate change that opens up even more vulnerability.

Given all that climate impacts, a change in climate is an issue of national security. It should garner the same urgency and resources that goes into other matters of national security.

How can we anticipate climate change?

It is of little use to rely on earth-wide global warming projections. There is so much variability from place to place as to overwhelm global projections. What matters is what happens locally.

Thus we have to rely on ground measurements. Sri Lanka is blessed in having long meteorological records. The record in Colombo ranks as one of the finest in the tropics next to Madras.

But global warming is difficult to quantify as the temperature increases slightly amidst much greater natural variability and instrumental and human errors in measurement. Therefore precise, long and multiple measurements are essential.

What do the Colombo measurements tell us?

Thus far, the measurements tell us that the temperature has been rising during the last 40 years. This rise is unprecedented since 1853. The warmest year on record is 1997. The next warmest years are all in recent decades.

There is much to be sorted out? Is there really a trend? What is the variation during different seasons? What is the variation during different times of the day? What is the variation during different decades? Will this trend carry on and if so for how long? Have there been periods of warming or cooling in the past. What nuances can be attributed to natural phenomenon such as El Nino or volcanic eruptions? What is the contribution of atmospheric pollution? All of this by itself is complicated enough without being undermined by poor data.

Data collection and encroachment at Colombo

A Colonial military officer, Colonel Fyers, started systematic meteorological data collection at Colombo in 1852. The most careful and detailed meteorological measurements in Sri Lanka have been conducted at Colombo. It is the only site from which balloon soundings of the air above us is carried out using radar tracking so that the Department records the wind, temperatures, humidity and radiation. All of this needs open space.

In the last 50 years, several buildings have been erected at its periphery such as the Ceylon Institute of Scientific and Industrial Research, a large church and the BMICH Conference Hall. The Department lost some land already to the Chinese Embassy and for housing for British diplomats. Previous officers of the Department of Meteorology have gnashed their teeth and protested. There is a story that Dr. D. T. E. Dassanayake, the first Director of Meteorology took his protests all the way to Sir John Kotelawala when the CISIR was constructed far away.

Now the newest construction is planned not merely be on the periphery but will encroach to the center of the Observatory. For unpublicized reasons, the last government has agreed to provide the Department land to the British High Commission. This will cramp up the Department, contaminate measurements and preclude expansion of operations in the future that are desperately needed. The wind and temperature measurements will be affected. One does not know as to what will become of the other measurements. International standards for data collection cannot be maintained.

The impact of the British takeover

While the Colombo station has a 150-year long record, there are 12 other stations with 130-year records. Jaffna, Mannar and Mullaitivu stations have not been maintained properly in recent decades. Several stations have been moved so the data quality is poor. Indeed, given the variability in climate in Sri Lanka, we need all the stations we can get. By far the longest and best meteorological data is available in Colombo.

One cannot merely do with good historical measurements - the history provide context but it is with contemporary measurements that we can interpret climate change for now. As we leave our worst environmental problems for future generations, the least we can do is bequeath them with quality environmental observations.

The 150 year long quality meteorological record is due to the dedicated efforts of several generations of meteorologists, technicians and observers who all go unheralded. Nor is that prime land vacant because there has been a shortage of uses. It is because dedicated scientists and administrators, both British and Lankan have resisted encroachment on the open fields. Thus, the decision to hand over the land is a cruel blow against generations past and generations to come.

Should the Colombo station be moved?

We need to know what the impacts of climate change are on Colombo for it hosts a large population, much housing, infrastructure, services, industry and government. If one is to choose an area for measurements in Colombo it is best to stay with Colombo 7 for it has remained the least urbanized. One cannot reliably distinguish the effects of urbanization from climate change.

The Kandy data affords lessons on the danger of relocating meteorological stations. This station was moved from Kundasale, to the British military cantonment near the Dalada Maligawa and then to Katugastota in 1953. All of that shifting has irrevocably contaminated the record prior to 1950. As a result, global databases have discarded the Kandy measurements prior to 1950.

Few First World countries will contemplate moving their observatories. It is unlikely that Britain would parcel out the Greenwich Observatory for any purpose let alone for foreign embassies.

Other needs for quality meteorological data

Global warming is only one of the questions for which we need quality meteorological data. Our response to E1 Nino and to the Great Asian Brown cloud, our anticipation of nuclear detonations all have to be sorted out.

Even the power cuts and drought have been attributed to a long-term decline in the stream flows in Sri Lanka. Is that global change? The hydrological data certainly supports this assertion - however, sand mining has contaminated hydrological data. Hence, we need long and reliable meteorological data for water resources management.

One also needs quality meteorological data for many other purposes including estimating air pollution, public health impacts such as asthma and dengue, in designing buildings, in designing hydro-electricity installations, wind energy installations, salt manufacture, preparing for floods and droughts, in anticipating cyclones and aviation and military operations. The list goes on.

What is at stake?

We can adapt with intelligence and foresight to climate change poses, only if we maintain the integrity and quality of our environmental data. There is much to be done but at the least we must not compromise on the observation posts on climate change. Giving ourselves a chance to sort out the implications of climate change is more important than whatever we gained by handing over part of the Department of Meteorology to the British Embassy. Since we cannot migrate as our 13th Century compatriots did, if we do not adapt to climate change then our children are at the risk of facing the fate of the Anasazi’s.