Politics
Some heretical thoughts on Oslo, peace support and interest-bearing loans

by Malinda Seneviratne
Our "leaders" along with their friends went to Oslo where the "peace" process was subjected to an audit of sorts. A few things happened. Balasingham was "introduced", "seed money" was asked for and some pledges were made by the donor countries. Balasingham, as expected, shot his mouth (according to Reuters and CNN). Strangely, it was not Balasingham or anyone from the LTTE that got hot under the collar about this allegedly false news report, but the entire government media machine. They had to sweat a lot to clean up the mess, only to have Prabhakaran reiterate Balasingham’s position, in-not-so-many-words.

"Oslo" was also about loans. Not for the North and East, but for the entire country. It will add to the per capita debt burden of Rs. 75,000 or a national burden of Rs. 1700 billion. Where the money goes, for what, who pays, are of course questions that are impolite to ask. Ranil Wickremesinghe has said that the peace process would reach a point of no return by next year, but has warned that international assistance was crucial to keep the process alive. "Without continuing international support and help with resources to build the peace dividend, the momentum for peace could be retarded".

All of a sudden the "Oslo Aid Meeting" had become a "Peace Support Meeting". Let me not ask, "what if what you call ‘peace’ is in reality a ‘capitulation to separatism and terrorism’?" for if that were the case, the mention of a "point of no return" would be disturbing indeed, and we don’t gain anything by giving our "negotiating team" butterflies. My suspicion is that they are immune to such ailments.

What does this "Peace Dividend Show" entail, anyway? Pumping the peace-NGO boys with millions of dollars to hold seminars and workshops about the evils of war for the security forces so that they will be persuaded to observe sil? Helping Sri Lanka First to organise hand-holding ceremonies and make Eelam-friendly video clips for the television audiences? To start another Thavalama? To start another Sudu Nelum movement? Or just help maintain the LTTE’s so-called Peace Secretariat in Kilinochchi?

"Oslo II" is a "negotiation" we are told. I can’t help asking, what else is there to "negotiate"? Let me leave it at that, and move on to Tokyo, where the real aid meeting is going to take place. Whether we like it or not, Sri Lanka is going to get a lot of money in Japan. These are not grants. They are loans. There are other loans to repay, let us not forget. Loans are not given out of love. They are investments; the investment of surplus money of the industrialised, capitalist countries.

The loans are given to the government. The responsibility of repayment therefore is with the government. What is actually happening is that the money is going to the LTTE, with the Sri Lankan government as the guarantor. In other words, the people of Sri Lanka are the guarantors. The LTTE is beholden to no one. Their statements about "areas of control", setting up of police stations, kachcheris and courts indicate only one thing: Ranil Wickremesinghe’s word counts for nothing in the "traditional homelands of terrorism" where "his" money will be used to set up and strengthen the structures of a separate state.

Let us forget the LTTE and the whole "peace" fiasco. Let us instead talk about loans, guarantees and liabilities in general. I shall consider three examples, all which are as "current" as the "peace" process: SriLankan Airlines and the sale of 13 Peoplised Transport Companies to a British firm.

In the case of SriLankan Airlines, Emirates owns a 30% stake. They are totally responsible for the management of the company, the majority stake-holder, the Sri Lankan government is a silent partner. The problem is this: when loans are obtained, it is always on a government guarantee. Emirates can waste the money and need not show a return on investment. The number of planes arriving in Sri Lanka on a given day is approximately 30. Five years have passed since Emirates took over. We still have around 30 coming in. Plans are under foot to expand the airport. But the skies are not free. Where is the "freedom" of the market here? Minister of Tourism, Gamini Lokuge has said that SriLankan Airlines will be kept out of all air deals, certainly a step in the right direction. Now SriLankan Airlines can go ahead and say, "Unless you give us the protection and the monopoly in aviation services, we will not service the loans obtained to buy air buses". Who holds the baby at the end of the day?

Let’s move on to the Bus Company Deal and the impending Rs. 7 billion rip-off, courtesy of the World Bank. IBIS, a British consortium, has supposedly purchased a 40% equity stake in 13 Peoplised Transport Companies for Rs. 1.45 billion. The government is negotiating on behalf of the company a World Bank loan of Rs. 7 billion. We are asked to believe that IBIS is going to infuse money. It is supposed to be an "investor". It is to run as a stand-alone company.

What does this mean? The World Bank is bank rolling the payment on behalf of IBIS, and the people of Sri Lanka are giving a guarantee to this unknown operator from Britain. We have to bear the risk of the investment! The local partners of this company have proved beyond doubt that they are not the best, as the Trans Asia Hotel hijinks demonstrate. In Sinhala we say, kunu ekathuvenne kunu thiyena thenatai (Dirt finds its way to dirty places). If this holds for IBIS, we can predict where this bus is going and where it is taking us, the people. A simple question should put things in perspective: "If the World Bank is bank-rolling the so-called ‘direct foreign investment’ why couldn’t the government at least find a local consortium?" They could have followed the dictum pertaining to "known devils", in the very least.

These are but two recent examples of gross social injustice that the unsuspecting ordinary man is made to suffer without his consent. It is not too different from obtaining a blind man’s signature. The root causes? Simple. The parasites in government and their officials can operate with impunity because lack of transparency and accountability is the order of the day, and because there are no checks and balances against corruption. At the highest levels.

Where do we go from here? More of the same? Since Ranil Wickremesinghe is a strong believer in capitalism, and since "his" state just doesn’t have the checks and balances necessary to handle finances responsibly, perhaps he should listen to the gurus of capitalism. Allan H. Meltzer of the Meltzer Commission, which is heavily backed by the Bush administration, has emphasised that "aid" would be meaningless without policies to a) increase transparency, b) improve accountability, and c) reduce state corruption. See, it is not just anti-capitalist, pro-socialist "idiots" like me who are saying these things. These constitute the crux of the matter.

If there is one thing clear about "governance" in this country, it is the total absence of these three key prerequisites to qualify for aid. Even if this is not a problem for Ranil Wickremesinghe, it is still a problem for the people of Sri Lanka and the generations yet unborn, for they will be born into debt and will, like us, have to undergo austerity measures throughout their lives. If the World Bank and IMF are really interested in "development", "growth" etc., it is their baby too. They have to insist that Ranil Wickremesinghe come up not just with a conjuring trick of doves and white flags, but solid and substantial guarantees that these conditions will be met. If they need any persuasion, let them consider the fact that the exacerbation of the debt crisis is precisely due to the absence of transparency and accountability and rampant institutionalised corruption.

We already have the independent Police Commission and Public Service Commission in place. We will be more relieved when we get the Elections Commission and the other components promised through the 17th Amendment to the Constitution. They are necessary but not sufficient mechanisms to ensure that there is sound economic management, especially in the matter of addressing the question of our debt burden. For this, we need an Independent Audit Commission, and more than all this, the setting up of a Social and Economic Commission, which will make both the BOI and PERC obsolete. I for one, will not shed one tear on their demise because if there are any institutions where political interference and cronyism reign supreme, they are the culprits.

A Social and Economic Commission, should be a constitutionally established institutions set up to give effect to the duties and responsibilities of the state, as stated in the constitution. Such a council should have a multi-faceted representation from economic, social, cultural, political, scientific and other fields, ensuring a balanced and locally appropriate approach to development. This is the one way to prevent the economic and social fiascos as such are the product of bodies like PERC. We will at least not have to suffer the outcomes of outright blunders like SriLankan Airlines and the IBIS deal.

So, when the rich gather in Tokyo to invest some of their excess petty cash, they can pat Ranil Wickremesinghe on his back many times over for "his statesman-like approach to resolving the conflict", but what would really earn them praise from the general public is if they were to say, "Mr. Wickremesinghe, let’s get the pre-requisites in place before we talk investment".

Ranil Wickremesinghe does not have a reputation of being a swindler. The one lasting thing he could do while he enjoys power is to ensure that swindlers are not offered loop holes through which they can creep into the treasury. He can set up the structures that provide for transparency and accountability. After that, since our modern-day governments love "aid", they can go to Aid Workshops with a defensible brief.


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