The LTTE’s Roadmap to Eelam

by a Political Correspondent

The LTTE has defied the international community and seems to be getting away with it. They remain defiant. They are taking out their political opponents despite the so called ceasefire, which apparently is only in relation to the Sri Lankan armed forces, everyone else is fair game; they continue conscripting and training; underage youth are being conscripted despite international protests; they are extorting unlawful taxes, they are into smuggling of arms including heavy weapons and building up their military strength. The military machine us being geared up with single-minded dedication to achieve their goal of Tamil Eelam to which they are uncompromisingly committed.

Their most recent demand that the government of Sri Lanka grant them exclusive rights to portions of its territorial waters in the Indian Ocean whilst conceding to them an administrative arrangement outside the Constitution with powers to administer the North and East of the country has brought matters to a head, for these are not demands any government of the country could concede without sacrificing its sovereignty and territorial integrity.

The LTTE’s game plan is obvious and stark. They will make it appear that the government has restarted hostilities. They may take out an important personage and use the government’s retaliation as the excuse. They have done this twice before and I do not put it beyond them to do so again. They have used the Ceasefire Agreement to entrench and poise themselves for their next move which is to take Jaffna by storming the Army Camps with unarmed citizens in the city first and thereafter heading for Palaly and KKS.

The LTTE is no doubt hoping that a few hundreds would die which would give them huge political capital. Using the Turmoil and the chaos that would result they would indulge a lightening strike on Batticaloa. There is little doubt that they would not succeed for Batticaloa has a poor defence capability.

The LTTE would next use the shock of these events to engineer and attack as a backlash on the Tamil community in Colombo and in the hill country, they would by now have infiltrated the hills as they have Colombo. They would then scream "genocide" and seek to declare UDI.

They would also claim that the Sinhala political parties are at each others throats and there is little prospect of there being agreement among them to pass the necessary legislation to give them their legitimate rights an a negotiated settlement is not possible..

The above is not fanciful thinking of some Sinhala chauvinists but the perception of a Senior Tamil politician who certainly knows the mind of the LTTE better than any Southerner. This is not a hypothetical situation. It is something that will happen in the near future. The operation could even commence with the massive demonstration the LTTE has planned for the 27th of this month. According to extremely reliable sources the LTTE is indulging in a house-to-house campaign and coercing people to attend. There is much fear in the minds of people in the Jaffna at the moment for they feel that they are pawns of the hands of the LTTE.

They are certain that some of them would be sacrificed at the altar of Eelam. If there be a mass march there is very little that the Army or the Police could do to stop the people. The LTTE is without doubt determine to evict the security forces from the North. It is Prabhakaran’s dream to take Jaffna and he is determined to take it. I am certain that he expected the UNP to deliver on their statement that a Interim Council would be established after it came into office.

I doubt very much as to whether either party thought through as to how the an Interim Council could be delivered. He would also move to settle people in the High Security Zone through a citizens march. I wonder as to whether the government has given thought to this and how such a march can be prevented.

The Prime Minister and Minister Moragoda are said to be traveling to the UK, they should stay home or travel to India to the US to alert them on the critical situation and ask for assistance on an urgent basis. There is indeed a crisis situation and they must head it off. It would be an act of irresponsibility not to be prepared for any eventuality. The government cannot afford to take the word of the LTTE that they would not go back to war. We have been deceived by them before. We cannot afford to put store in their words any more.

The LTTE has only one agenda and that is the establishment of a separate State.

They have over past 20 years moved forward towards that goal through various military and other means including deception.

They have always sought to use words to make it appear that they are the aggrieved party even after committing horrendous crime against humanity. They have of course been ‘assisted’ by the utter ineptitude of successive governments, a lack of a commitment to this country and corruption among the Armed Forces.

Today they are poised to establish their separate state. They have only two more steps to reach their goals.

The first would be an interim administration and next their Confederal unit and from there they would launch their final offensive.

How would this impact on India is a multi-million dollar question? Their silence hitherto in the face of creeping LTTE domination both on land and more importantly their claim to exclusive areas of the Indian Ocean, is deafening. Would not the creation of a highly militarized state south of India not lead to destabilization of that country.

There may be some out there who would say that they could ‘live’ with a separate state or a Confederal unit next door.

But our own view is that India’s security and territorial integrity is under threat. In the words of Shri Gujral "Few countries are as inextricably linked with each other as Sri Lanka and India." Is India expecting the US to safeguard India’s interests in Sri Lanka?

The statement of Deputy Secretary Armitage on the 17th June "We have designated the LTTE as a foreign terrorist organization ....... In fact we will hunt them down and try to stop their finances. We would like them to work into a situation in which they are no longer a foreign terrorist organization. They could do that by giving up, once and for all, violence as a political weapon", would have no doubt have given the LTTE cause for second thoughts. For there is little doubt that the LTTE has in recent days being pursuing their goal of Eelam with utmost purpose.

But this by itself is not adequate to stop the adventurism of the LTTE -there MUST be a warning from India that she would not permit the LTTE to establish Eelam. She would need to move her warships out of her Southern Command into our territorial waters in the east. There is no doubt that the government would welcome such a move.

There is no other way to head off this disaster. India has to move alone or in consort with the Americans.

The Americans must put their money where the mouth is and as for the Indians their vital interests are involved and unless they act now they will live to regret -for Prabhakaran would begin the Balkanization of India. Pakistan would be salivating.