by Our Defence Correspondent
The government sought this week to belittle former Foreign Minister Lakshman Kadirgamar’s warnings about the build up of LTTE forces around Trincomalee by trying to portray that there is no such threat and declaring that it is quite ready to defend the strategic harbour town.

But the fact is that the government has taken no firm steps to protect Trincomalee since the ceasefire began, while the Tigers have made no secret that Trinco is their major target, and have been building up forces in strategic areas in the district.

As far back as March 31, 2002, more than 17 months ago, this column exclusively revealed the LTTE’s plans for Trincomalee in an article titled "Trinco likely to be major target if Tigers go back to war."

The Tigers themselves had issued the warning of their intentions regarding Trinco shortly before our article, when LTTE speakers at the Pongu Thamil rally that month in Trincomalee told a crowd of some 50,000 people that Trincomalee is the capital city of Tamil Eelam. But even then, the government chose to ignore the open threat. This was a revival of the declaration made by LTTE Leader Velupillai Prabhakaran as far back as 1982, although the focus of major hostilities in the Northern Province has prevented the Tigers from ever staging a decisive attack on Trinco.

The destruction of two LTTE ships carrying thousands of tons of weapons and ammunition this year underlined the importance of Trinco as a strategic base for naval operations, which has always had the capability of preventing the Tigers from achieving their goal of Eelam.

Incredibly, government spokesman G. L. Peiris on Thursday justified the LTTE’s claims that they have not established 13 new camps as has been proved by the media. Peiris said at the Cabinet press briefing that only the Manirasakulam camp was new, and that the others had existed before the ceasefire, which is a barefaced lie as the whole country knows. The armed forces would never have allowed the LTTE to have so many camps surrounding Trinco during wartime. Although some of these camps had been set up during wartime, action by the army had forced the Tigers to abandon the camps. However, since the ceasefire began, the Tigers have returned to these sites and set up the camps again as well as building camps in new areas.

By saying that these camps are in areas not controlled by the government, Peiris is actually conceding government territory to the LTTE without a shot being fired. Whatever the chances there were of making the Tigers withdraw from these camps by legal means have now been destroyed by Peiris! While the areas that some of these camps are in were not firmly in LTTE hands during wartime, neither did the LTTE control these areas. With a wartime force of less than 6,000 cadres, more than 4,000 of whom were stationed in the north, the LTTE did not have the ability to control vast tracts of land in the east. Both, army soldiers and LTTE cadres used to pass through these desolate areas in the Trincomalee and Batticaloa districts, without actually controlling them. For example, the army used the main Habarana-Trinco road in the daytime, but closed it at dusk, as the Tigers used the road at night when they could not be attacked by the air force. This does not mean that either side actually controlled the jungles of the area. Therefore, neither side should be allowed to set up camps there. The same applies to many of the Trinco-Muttur areas in which the controversial LTTE camps have been set up.

However, with the LTTE’s strength having swelled to some 17,000 cadres, through massive recruitment during the ceasefire, it actually needs to expand the number of camps as villages near existing camps cannot sustain those camps’ increased numbers of cadres with food and other logistics. Hence, the need for new camps, and the LTTE has carefully chosen strategic locations for them so that they will be in an excellent position for use in wartime.

As for Peiris’ claim that the armed forces have contingency plans to defend Trincomalee, he said nothing about the fact that deploying thousands of troops to defend it and using them for many months to stall the threat that these new camps would weaken the armed forces in other areas such as the Jaffna Peninsula. The government may not be able to even maintain the sea link to Jaffna if Trincomalee is under direct attack.

The solution is clearly to insist on the vacation of all these camps now, during the ceasefire. Instead, Peiris has legitimized all but one camp, the Manirasakulam camp, which, incidentally, is not in a very strategic location at all as it is a considerable distance away from Trinco and Muttur and would not directly threaten the harbour.

It is worth recalling what we said in that article, which the armed forces are only now waking up to: "The town of Trincomalee is likely to be the main target of the LTTE’s offensive if the Tigers go back to war," sources said. There have also been very heavy movements of LTTE weaponry around the entire Trincomalee region, using the freedom of movement afforded by the MoU. Soldiers and police are now powerless to stop these movements or even search LTTE vehicles, since they are in areas that were not strictly within the government’s control. Before the ceasefire, only the town of Trincomalee and its surrounding areas as well as a few other towns such as Kantalai and Muttur, were under government control. Areas such as the Somawathie Sanctuary area were under LTTE control, while major roads such as the Trinco-Habarana road were controlled by neither side and used by both."

"But in the present situation, the LTTE is using all roads outside the Trincomalee town to transport weapons to new locations. Sources say the Tigers are setting up caches of weapons in different sites, in various hiding places, which they will use when attacks are to be launched in those areas. In this way, the Tiger cadres need to carry only a minimum of equipment."

"Another alarming move is that LTTE intelligence gathering cadres have been especially active in the Trincomalee region, scouting the defences of the army, navy, air force and police in the area. Even at sea, the Sea Tigers have been sending boats around the Trincomalee bay, getting as close to the navy base as they can before being challenged by patrolling gunboats. Although there is no ceasefire at sea, the navy is being careful not to get into any confrontations which may hamper the peace process."

"The importance of Trincomalee to the LTTE and the government cannot be understated. Trincomalee holds the key to the entire war. If the LTTE were to capture Trincomalee, they would have almost certainly won their fight for Eelam, unless government forces can recapture it. It is from Trincomalee that supplies are sent to Jaffna. Should the Tigers go back to war, the Kandy-Jaffna road would be closed once again, and the only supply route would be the sea. Supply convoys need to be escorted past the Mullaitivu coast which is brimming with Sea Tiger attack craft, and it is from Trinco, which is the navy’s largest base, that warships join convoys and escort them to Trinco. The presence of this large fleet at Trinco prevents the LTTE from controlling the east coast. Without Trinco, warships would need to begin their escort duties from as far down as the south coast off Kirinda. Supply ships and warships cannot take any other route to the north, as the Adam’s Bridge area between Rameshwaram and Talaimannar is too shallow for ships to cross."

"The LTTE has never been able to significantly threaten Trinco, which has more than 10,000 armed forces personnel, being a Divisional Headquarters of the army and having the China Bay air force base as well. In addition, Trinco can call upon massive reinforcements from the Polonnaruwa area, which is home to thousands more troops and the Hingurakgoda air force base.

"However, if the LTTE can recruit sufficient cadres to launch a major assault on Trinco, and prevent reinforcements from getting through across the Habarana-Trinco road, the situation would be different. Trincomalee has long been the LTTE’s declared capital city of Eelam."