Hakeem’s dilemma

SLMC Leader Rauff Hakeem must be a worried man. He is coming under pressure from many a quarter over issues ranging from frivolous to serious. His biggest trouble, however, is likely to be the newly formed Muslim Alliance, ‘United Muslim Ummah’ (UMU), whose goal is to bring all Sri Lankan Muslims under one banner. His party has become UMU’s prime target.

The architects of the UMU have already fired a salvo at the SLMC: They have criticised the SLMC constitution as helping its leader to be ‘rigid and dictatorial.’ They also claim to enjoy the support of Muslim parliamentarians of both the UNF and the UPFA, according to our news item yesterday.

The SLMC apart, if the UMU can muster the support of all Muslims and remain independent unlike the SLMC or the Ferial faction, it will cause serious problems for the two main parties under the existing PR system as well as the LTTE, which is trying to annex the eastern province to the North permanently.

The cause of the Eastern Province Muslims appears to be one of the factors – if not the main – that have brought about the UMU. The SLMC has obviously failed to look after the interests of the Muslims living under the gun in the East, as could be seen from the erosion of its support base at the recent elections. So far, its loss has been the gain of its rival faction led by Mrs. Ferial Ashraff. But with the UMU coming into being, the Muslims will have another option.

Going by the leniency with which the UPFA is dealing with the LTTE, it is doubtful that Minister Ferial Ashraff will be able to be different, in looking after the Muslim interests vis-`E0-vis the Ceasefire Agreement, from the UNF ally Hakeem, who has failed to do so even after signing a mini MoU and shaking hands with LTTE Leader Prabahakran, who promised to steer clear of Muslims.

The desperate situation that the Eastern Province Muslims are in – the same goes for the Sinhalese living there – augurs well for the new alliance. Although it is too early to gauge the real strength of the UMU, which is scheduled to be officially launched today, given its urge to go at the SLMC which is demanding that it be accommodated in the peace talks, it is clear that the new alliance is being driven by the desire to have inter alia a stake in the peace process, which will, in such an eventuality, be beset with yet another problem. For, the UMU is bound to campaign for de-merger, a cause that will surely be supported by, in addition to Muslims, the Sinhalese in the east as well as the supporters of renegade LTTE military commander, Karuna Amman, who is fighting for separating the east from the north.

Thus, the LTTE’s ISGA demand is likely to run into further trouble: The LTTE will have no need for any administration without the east attached to it and no government – present or future – will be able to grant an ISGA with the East as a part of it against the wishes of the majority of the people in the East supported by a strong Muslim political party. Thus, an alliance like the UMU, not prepared to compromise the cause of the Muslims in the East, will be a bulwark against the ISGA.