Singapore - Oil stayed above 50 dollars a
barrel Wednesday as jittery stock markets fell and economists
warned the record prices could sharply cut Asia’s economic
growth, slash investments and fuel inflation.
They said high oil prices are here to stay as
supply comes under relentless pressure from surging global
demand, especially in China, and wide-ranging threats of
disruption.
Rebel threats to attack oil facilities in
Nigeria, hurricane damage to oil platforms in the US Gulf Coast,
instability in Iraq and the financial and legal woes of Russian
oil giant Yukos have all conspired to push prices higher.
At 3:50 pm (0750 GMT), New York’s reference
light sweet crude oil for November delivery was at 50.05 dollars
in after hours electronic trading at the New York Mercantile
Exchange, up from its close of 49.90 dollars on Tuesday.
"We expect oil prices to remain high with
continued upside risks to the end of 2004 and into 2005,"
Barclays Capital said in a report.
"With global oil demand now beginning to ramp up
towards its seasonal maximum, an already stretched logistical
system is about to become even tighter.
"The ability of that system to meet technical or
political supply-side interruptions is now at its lowest for
more than 30 years ... Should there be another shock, then
prices will set another series of historic highs well above 50
dollars."
Asian stock markets continued to reel Wednesday
from the impact.
Japanese share prices closed 0.27 percent lower,
Taiwan fell 0.67 percent and the Philippines ended 0.23 percent
weaker. Singapore’s Straits Times Index had shed 0.83 points by
the end of the morning session.
"There is growing concern over the effect of
higher oil prices on corporate earnings. Some companies will be
hit harder than the others," a dealer with a Singapore brokerage
said, pointing to the airlines and other transport companies.
Economists said high oil prices also threaten to
slow Asia’s growth, raise consumer prices and dampen domestic
consumption.
Falling private sector spending, especially in a
large market like the United States, will dampen demand for
Asian exports.
The Manila-based Asian Development Bank said
that in the likely scenario of sustained oil price rises,
developing Asia’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth could be
pared down by 0.8 percentage points.
Inflation would rise 1.1 points and the trade
balance would swing to a deficit equal to 0.4 percent of total
output.
"If oil prices are going to persist at 50
dollars per barrel, there are going to be some important
downsides that are going to result," ADB chief economist Ifzal
Ali told AFP in Manila.
Clark Winter, the chief global investment
strategist of Citigroup Private Bank, said in a recent report
that a growth explosion in China and India had stoked "an almost
insatiable demand" for oil and gasoline to keep cars, trucks and
industries running.
China, for example, is forecast to have 140
million cars on its roads by 2020, implying a seven-fold
increase in gasoline consumption from the current 383 million
barrels a year, he wrote last week.
Increasing demand from India, Eastern Europe and
Latin America could further strain oil supplies, he added.
Barclays Capital estimated that current global
spare capacity has fallen to less than one million barrels a day
from more than 6.5 million barrels a day in 2002.
AFP