PARIS, Wednesday, Sept 29 — Make a note for your
descendants: the 2156 Olympics will be the one to watch, for it
may well mark the first time in human history that women will
overtake men as the fastest runners on the planet.
That’s the confident prediction of British
scientists who have plotted the times for the Olympic 100 metres
since 1900 and say a century of ever-improving athletic prowess
in this discipline is set to continue.
They say the figures point to "remarkably strong
linear trends": a steady improvement by both men and women that
runs like a straight line surging up a graph.
In addition, women are improving faster than
men, so a century and a half from now they may well be the
world’s fastest sprinters, the team say.
The winner of the 100m women’s sprint in Athens
this year was Yulia Nesterenko of Belarus, with a time of 10.93
seconds. The men’s winner was Justin Gatlin of the United
States, with 9.85 seconds.
In the 2008 Games, according to the computer
model, the 2008 women’s champion will come home in a range of
10.34-10.80 seconds, and the men’s champion in a range of
9.586-9.874 seconds.
"Should these trends continue, the projections
will intersect at the 2156 Olympics, when — for the first time
ever — the winning women’s 100-metre sprint time of 8.079
seconds will be lower than that of the men’s winning time of
8.098 seconds," they say.
That scenario could happen as soon as the 2064
or as late as the 2788 Games, they caution.
The authors, led by Andrew Tatem of the
University of Oxford’s Department of Zoology, acknowledge that
their computer model does not take into account "numerous
confounding influences" such as environmental variations,
national boycotts and the potential use of illegal drugs.
But they say they found no evidence to support
popular assertions of a plateau — that sprinters today are now
close to reaching the upper limit of human capabilities.
No, they say, do they find anything to back
allegations that women improved quickly in the 1970s and 80s
because of doping and that this improvement began to sag as soon
as rigorous drug testing was introduced.
Overall, there has been a continuous,
straight-line improvement by women ever since the first female
100 metres in 1928, they say. The 1928 100m final in Amsterdam
was won by Elizabeth Robinson of the United States in 12.20
seconds.
Although the first modern Olympics were staged
in Athens in 1896, the data for the males’ 100m starts with the
1900 Games in Paris, won by Frank Jarvis of the United States in
11.00 seconds.
In addition, the scientists point out, only a
tiny proportion of the world’s female population has been
allowed to compete in top athletics.
If the net is cast wider so that better
potential candidates come through, it is only logical that
women’s performance times should improve, they say.
The study appears on Thursday in Nature, the
weekly British science journal.