In a recent (revised) article "Trickle Down
Economics – My Foot!" (The Sunday Island 10th October 2004)
Kaywatta offers a lengthy and enthusiastic defence of extensive
government intervention in the economy. This was in response to
my earlier article (The Sunday Island, 26th September 2004)
where I sought to distinguish between some of the rhetoric and
the reality in an ongoing debate that will help to determine the
economic future of the country. Given the importance of these
public policy issues it is worth briefly addressing some of the
points raised.
Kaywatta’s article raises a number of points
that rightly deserve a longer and more detailed discussion than
can be done adequately here. Some of these might be better
addressed in separate future articles. This response seeks only
to clarify several areas where there seem to have been
misinterpretations or factual discrepancies.
1. Kaywatta argues that China and India are
examples of countries not pursuing free market economic
policies, arguing more than once that China is "still a state
controlled economy". Acknowledging of course that all countries
maintain some degree of government intervention, it is worth
keeping in mind the following four points:
`95 In most important respects China is no
longer a state controlled economy. The introduction of
market driven policies has been rapid and far reaching to the
point that today China has stronger and more enforceable
property rights and less regulated markets than a great many
developing countries. That is why it is attracting enormous
amounts of private foreign direct investment.
`95 China and India only began to achieve much
higher growth rates as they reduced the levels of government
intervention and began moving towards substantially freer
market policies. In the 1980s Deng Xiaoping began introducing
market-based reforms based on the success of the free trade
policies of Hong Kong, Singapore and Taiwan. In 1991 India
abandoned the absurdities of its ‘control raj’ in favour of
letting market forces guide the economy. Both countries had
long histories of tight controls that led to the mass
impoverishment of their people. As Gujaran Das wrote in his
book India Unbound, "By suppressing economic
liberty for forty years, we destroyed growth and the future of
two generations". The evidence from many countries
demonstrates that when countries even start moving towards
less rather than more government intervention, there are
almost always immediate positive results.
`95 While relatively free trade and limited
government interference in the economy may not be sufficient
alone to ensure consistently good economic results, they
certainly appear to be necessary. Where are the
countries that have maintained restrictive trade policies and
extensive government controls that have succeeded in
significantly raising the economic welfare of their people?
There are none.
`95 In contrast, if one looks around the
world, the richest countries as a group have substantially
freer trade policies and operate with substantially less
government intervention in the economy than virtually all of
the much poorer developing countries.
2. Kaywatta argues that markets alone cannot
"guarantee optimal welfare". He is of course correct. No system
is perfect. The issue is not whether markets are perfect,
but rather whether they are substantially better than the
alternative – some form of central control of the economy.
The answer is, of course, yes. One would have thought that there
is overwhelming and unambiguous evidence over the last fifty
years, including here in Sri Lanka, to leave little doubt on
this point.
3. There are indeed areas where markets have
limitations, especially, as he notes, when it comes to
controlling environmental pollution. This is most often because
people treat air and water resources as free goods. But
the most effective answer to these problems is usually to
strengthen, not weaken, the market mechanism where these
problems exist. Increasingly the world is turning to the
introduction of tradable pollution rights as the most effective
approach for dealing with many environmental pollution problems,
such as is embodied in the Kyoto Accord.
4. Kaywatta argues that market forces "create
inequality and marginalize the poor". This is a point that is
repeated in various ways throughout his article, particularly
the problems of the rural poor. In fact many of
impediments to actually alleviating poverty are the result of
excessive misguided state interventions which limit the
abilities of markets in the rural economy to function properly.
For example, farmers particularly suffer from excessive
government controls that have resulted in the lack of clear
titles to their land, regulations on what crops they can grow,
how they can market their produce and inefficient subsidies for
urea, but not other types of fertilizer. One might add to this
list the UPFA government’s current attempts to import large
amounts of duty free rice to manipulate domestic prices.
5. Kaywatta also suggests that "there are
macroeconomic imbalances such as balance of payments deficits,
inflation, and currency changes in value, which can only be
addressed by state intervention." In reality these are almost
always the result of misguided state intervention, often seeking
to manipulate the economy for political ends. One need only look
at the results of the mismanaged intervention during the last
six months by the UPFA government and what this has done to the
cost of living, the value of the rupee and the expanding public
debt.
6. Kaywatta misleadingly points to increasing
numbers of unemployed as evidence of the adverse impact of free
market policies. ("The number of unemployed rose from 537,000 in
2001 to 626,000 in 2002 and 648,000 in 2003.") The same Central
Bank Annual Report table shows that between 2001 and 2003 there
was an increase of more than 700,000 additional people employed.
The Central Bank also points out that two reasons for the
increase in numbers reported as unemployment were the inclusion
of the Eastern Province in the data beginning in 2003 and the
fact that people evidently showed a "greater willingness to
engage in economic activity following positive expectations of
economic recovery since 2001."
Finally, Kaywatta concludes his article with a
quotation from the Human Development Report of 1996, repeated
here.
"Economic growth should lead to fuller choices
for all people - rather than few choices for most people or many
choices for a few. But it is never enough to wait for economic
growth automatically to trickle down to the poor. Instead, human
development and poverty reduction must be moved to the top of
the agenda for political and economic policy making and even
when links between economic growth and human development have
been painstakingly established, they must be protected against
being blown apart by sudden shifts in political power or market
forces."
We can both agree with the sentiments expressed
in this quotation. However, the central question is how can
these goals best be achieved? As argued in my original article,
the caricature of so-called ‘trickle down’ economics is not an
accurate picture of how market reforms work to generate economic
growth and benefit the poor. Certainly since the 1996 Human
Development Report was published there has been considerable
experience and research produced to demonstrate the positive,
critical impact of economic growth on alleviating poverty.
The hard reality is that restrictive policies
and government intervention in the economy rarely leads to
fuller choices for all people – the usual result is fewer
choices.