The value of total merchandise exports from all countries of the world amounted to $6,414 billion in 2002. Two-thirds of these exports were from developed countries. The value of total exports of services was $ 1,611 billion in the same year and almost three-fourths of those were from developed countries. In 1960 the share of world merchandise exports in the world gross domestic product was 10 per cent. By 2000 it had climbed to 20 per cent. The share of services in world output was 3 per cent in 1960 and almost 5 per cent in 2000. An important feature of international trade over the past four decades has been the growing participation of developing countries in total world exports of merchandise and services. Developing countries’ merchandise exports grew on the average 12 per cent a year in the period 1960-2002. The corresponding figures are 11 per cent for developed countries and 8 per cent of Central and Eastern Europe. Exports of services grew at 9 per cent a year in developing countries and 8 per cent in developed countries in 1980-2002.

In the early 1970s, developing countries faced merchandise trade deficits; their exports represented only 96 per cent of imports. During the 1970s their trade balance improved substantially and in 1980, exports totalled 120 per cent of imports. This improvement was largely attributable to the rise in oil prices after the oil crises of 1974 and 1979. In the 1980s and 1990s, developing countries’ trade balance deteriorated. In 1990, the balance was still positive, but exports were only 102 per cent of imports. By the mid-1990s the exports-to-imports ratio had returned to its 1970 level. Meanwhile, the developed countries’ trade balance remained essentially negative during the whole period under consideration. As far as services are concerned, although developing countries’ trade balance remained negative, it improved in the 1980s and 1990s, at least in relative terms. Developed countries as a group as a group had a positive trade balance over the two decades. (See table I)

In the last 20 years, the picture for developing countries has become much more nuanced. With the exception of East Asian and Latin American economies, developing countries did not see their exports increase significantly. This is particularly true of Africa’s states which have averaged a modest annual growth rate of 2 per cent since 1980. The growth of Asian exports took off in the 1970s, with South and East Asian countries generating the bulk of the region’s export growth. The share in total world exports of South American, Central and Eastern Europe and African economies were actually lower in 2002 than in 1960. If we take the four decades from 1960-2002, average annual growth rate in exports was highest in Asia– 13.4 per cent – second highest in Latin America – 9.7 per cent – and third highest in Africa – 7.7 per cent.

In Asia, South and South East Asia had the highest rate of all – 14.5 per cent. The share in world exports of lest developed countries was 0.7 per cent in 1980. It fell to 0.4 per cent in 1990 and began to increase slightly only in the late 1998 reaching 0.6 per cent in 2000. While world exports grew at an annual pace of 6 per cent in the 1980s, the corresponding figure for the least developed countries was only 2 per cent. During the past decade, these countries’ exports grew 7 per cent annually keeping pace with the world average. In addition, for most developing countries, imports expanded faster than exports during the past four decades, resulting in increasing trade deficits for those economies. (See table II)

Trade among developing countries has increased substantially and steadily over the past four decades. In 1960, exports directed from and to developing countries represented 24 per cent of developing countries’ total exports. In 2001, the proportion was 41 per cent. Growth was essentially driven by the rise in the share of exports from South East Asian developing countries. Trade among developed countries increased only slightly, while trade within Central and Eastern Europe actually fell sharply – from 63 per cent in 1960 to 25 per cent in 2001. The percentage of exports from developing countries directed to developed states increased during the 1980s and has since remained at around 57 per cent. This tendency has been observed for Africa, Asia and Oceania but not for South American economies, which delivered 73 per cent of their total exports to developed parts of the world in 2001.

The figures pertaining to large regions especially to Asia as a whole include very different performances by countries and sub-regions. It is worth noting that 10 per cent of developed country imports originated from South East Asian economies in 1990 and then reached almost 17 per cent in 2000. During the past three decades, the aggregate share of exports from developed states to developing parts of the world remained between 20 per cent and 25 per cent. Nonetheless, the U.S., Japan, New Zealand and Australia have seen their shares of exports to developing countries increase, although not substantially. The share of exports from developed economies to Central and Eastern European countries increased significantly during the last 10 years. This trend is the result of substantial growth in trade between these countries and the European Union. On the other hand, shares in exports to Central and Eastern European fell in general for all developing countries. (See table III)

Between 1980 and 2000, the volume of developing country exports increased more than six fold compared to a threefold increase for developed countries. Most of the expansion of exports has been concentrated in developing countries of Asia. However, an increase in the volume of imports of developing Asia has been even more striking – tenfold – compared to a threefold increase globally. The unit value index of exports for developing countries as a whole fell sharply in the 1980s. This trend continued although less markedly during the 1990s. More detailed data show that the value index of exports for South and South East Asian countries remained fairly steady in the 1980s and increased slightly in the 1990s. The index for African countries is driven by the index of major African petroleum exporters. The price index for developed countries showed a slight tendency to increase in the whole period.

Since 1985, the purchasing power of exports has increased for both developed and developing countries, despite the large decrease in developing countries terms of trade prior to the mid-1990s. While the African countries’ terms of trade worsened until 1999, the purchasing power of their exports has been increasing substantially since 1999. Least developed countries’ terms of trade fluctuated until recent years, in 2001 recovering their 1980 level. While terms of trade for South and south East Asian countries have also fluctuated, the purchasing power of their export has increased over the past two decades and grew by a factor of almost 2.5 in the last 10 years.

Commodities and Manufacturers

During the last four decades, the share of primary commodities in total world exports of merchandise has fallen dramatically. Primary commodities, excluding fuels, represented 38 per cent of world exports in 1960 but only 12 per cent in 2001. In developing countries, the share was initially 63 per cent but by 2001 it had fallen to 13 per cent. In 1960, food items represented 17 per cent of world exports while in 2001 they accounted for only 7 per cent. A similar drop occurred for agricultural raw materials. These patterns held true for both developed and developing countries. The only exception is exports of ores and metals, whose share remained fairly constant.