The assassination on Friday night of Foreign Minister Lakshman Kadirgamar has thrown a new element into the legal and constitutional imbroglio regarding the date on which the next presidential election is due. As reported in our news pages today, the Elections Commissioner had, as expected, sought the advice of the Attorney General on the various questions confronting him with political opinion sharply divided on whether the presidential election is due this year or in 2006. Mr. Dayananda Dissanayake has been advised to retain private counsel, possibly because the AG, as law officer to the government, is obliged to advice various parties and may even be called upon by the court to make his submissions.

``It is also possible that the AG has his view which may not be the same as the commissioner’s view,’’ one well informed legal source said.

The Kadirgamar assassination, widely perceived as the work of the LTTE although the president, particularly, avoided making any direct accusation, in the first statement she issued hours after the tragedy. For good and understandable reasons the government did not announce the minister’s death until some time after he had actually passed away. The sniper, holed out in the second storey of a house adjoining the minister’s Bullers Lane private residence where he enjoyed a swim most days, had apparently had a clear field and had shot the minister through his heart as he came out of his pool. The head injuries he bore had been the result of his skull hitting a hard concrete surface as he fell heavily. There had been no question of surgeons fighting to save his life, well informed sources said. He had died almost instantly from the first shot fired by the sharp-shooting assassin.

The assassination, obviously, must impact on many political matters including dealing between the government and the LTTE as well as pending judicial determinations. The law does not exist in a vacuum, experts point out. It is also clear that the president has a strong case under the third amendment that her term must end next year and not this year regardless of the fact that she has served six years since she was last elected. No doubt she has a difficulty in a ``premature’’ oath taking and also that her claimed second oath taking was never publicized or gazetted. The chief justice who administered the oaths should not sit on the bench deciding these matters, the Center for Policy Alternatives (CPA) is arguing. He could, if he wishes, constitute a bench excluding himself or do otherwise depending on how the matter is seen by himself as well as his brother judges. He would also, no doubt, be conscious of the concept that justice must not only be done but seen to be done.

President Kumaratunga in her statement referred to Kadirgamar being ``felled by political foes,’’ creating an impressing that she was pointing a finger in the direction of a political party or group. But her spokesmen, queried by reporters, were quick to say that there was no such intention. While some analysts believed that Kumaratunga who has made no secret of her antipathy to the JVP appeared to be pointing at her former UPFA ally, others said that the cap of being Kadirgamar’s political foe would better fit the LTTE than anybody else. Also, analysts noted that Kadirgamar had a close relationship with the JVP which had even proposed him for prime minister when the UPFA won the last election and had, as politicians do, given him a copy of the letter they had written in this connection. Also it is well known that the JVP turned to Kadirgamar as relations between themselves and the president weakened before their final exit from the government and the president herself did not take kindly to that relationship.

Predictably the LTTE denied any hand in the Kadirgamar assassination although, as one commentator said, not even Prabhakaran’s mother would believe that denial. The TamilNet which first reported the killing later on Saturday quoted S.P. Thamilchelvan condemning Colombo for ``hastily blaming the LTTE for the killing.’’ Playing the Karuna card, the Tiger’s political wing head said that there were several forces in the South opposed to the Ceasefire Agreement (CFA).``We also know that there are sections within the Sri Lanka armed forces operating with a hidden agenda to sabotage the CFA,’’ he added.

He had further said that Colombo, ridden with internal rifts and power struggles, should look inwards for culprits of the assassination. There was a growing trend in the south to blame the LTTE for all killings, he had said.

No doubt the propaganda imperatives would make Thamilchelvan say what he did. Who does he say was responsible for the killing of the Rupavahini Tamil presenter and her husband at Bambalapitiya the same day the foreign minister was killed? Who’s being trying to get Douglas Devananada all these years and Lakshman Kadirgamar for almost the whole of his long tenure as foreign minister?

Although Thamilchelvan’s denial will not be believed by anybody except vested interests wishing to believe him, the government will have to take serious note of the security failures thrown up as a result of the assassination of a leader the country could least afford to lose. The LTTE has over the years liquidated many of those with the ability to give leadership to the south and list including President Premadasa, Messrs. Gamini Dissanayake, Ranjan Wijeratne, Lalith Athulathmudali and now, Lakshman Kadirgamar, is long. Kadirgamar, it must be remembered, was a serious contender for the prime ministry of what the LTTE likes to call the ``Sinhala government.’’ He had what it took in terms of ability although he may have found it difficult to have got elected. But that did not mean he did not have a large and appreciative following, of all communities, who deeply admired him for what he was and the services he rendered his country.

The possibility of both the presidential and parliamentary elections on one day is now being openly speculated. Nobody is sure what the determination of the presidential election day will be and there are many signs that Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapakse, named as the PA nominee for the presidential ticket, like his main opponent, Ranil Wickremesinghe, would prefer an election this year rather than next year. The president has made it more than clear that the constitution gives her the right to continue till next year and that is what she wishes to do. Although Rajapakse will not publicly say that he opts for an election this year, it is obvious from his campaign that he is not looking one year down the road. By then the expensive posters that have been displayed countrywide, courtesy the Road Development Authority the UNP alleges (the PM is Minister of Highways), would be in tatters and the freshness attributed to the candidate would have paled.

CBK, obviously, is playing the political chess at which she is a grandmaster. She is keen on retaining the leadership of the SLFP which she is unlikely to do post-retirement if Rajapakse is president. There have been reports that changes to the SLFP constitution are being drafted to protect her interests. Should the Elections Commissioner rule that the presidential election must be held this year, and the courts sustain that decision, the president still has the option of dissolving parliament and that is an option she is looking at, most analysts believe.

She can always argue that holding both elections on the same day makes sense in terms of election expenditure. Any arrangement between the PM and the JVP, which are a distinct possibility, will be unpalatable to CBK. Therefore it makes good sense to have a parliamentary election and a presidential election on the same day with her hand still firmly on the rudder of both the ship of state as well the held of her party. Loyalists are therefore being accommodated in positions as exemplified by Minister Nimal Siripala de Silva’s elevation to the position of the Leader of the House. That does not in any way suggest a lack of confidence in Mr. Maithripala Sirisena who remains party secretary. The present indications are that those one-time loyalists considered close to the JVP are being sidelined. Mangala Samaraweera’s departure from the media ministry is one example and, in fact, there have been reports that Samaraweera is now a point man for the Rajapakse campaign with the JVP.

Regardless of what earlier calculations were, the president as well as Wickremesinghe will have to rethink strategies in the wake of the Kadirgamar assassination and the new elements it throws into the political scene. It is clear that an election now will not help the economy, particularly tourism. The hospitality industry which took a heavy blow last December from the tsunami has been looking forward to a good winter season this year and an election is not going to help that, especially if a poll wound engender violence. ``The hotel trade is down to rock bottom,’’ a leading banker commented. ``An election is the last thing the country needs at this juncture.’’ But these comments were made before the assassination which, perhaps, has strengthened the case for the existing polity to unite in the national interest and do what needs to be done instead of going for each other’s jugular in an electoral contest.

The Ravaya reported yesterday that Rajapakse had told the newspaper that although no official talks have begun seeking JVP assistance for his presidential bid, Samaraweera was exploring common areas of agreement with the JVP. Among the matters that are being looked at are that if Rajapakse should become president, he would not dissolve the present parliament until the end of its present term. Also, even though Rajapakse would have the right to continue the SLFP’s stance on P-TOMS and the CFA, the JVP should have the right to express its views on these matters. Further, after presidential election, the public perception on these controversial subjects should be canvassed through a referendum and the verdict of the people should be accepted.

The JVP would also like to see Mr. Ratnasiri Wickremanayake vacating the leadership of the UPFA that President Kumaratunga bestowed on him to distance herself from the JVP when relationships between her and her then Marxist allies soured. They want Rajapakse to assume this position.

The Ravaya claimed that Rajapakse had confirmed that the newspaper’s information on these matters had been broadly correct.

The newspaper also ran a story in its issue datelined today but distributed on Friday that the Elections Commissioner had said that his department had the capability to run both the presidential and parliamentary election on the same day and also that there were no financial problems in doing so. There is still no indication on whether the Elections Commissioner, following his meeting on Friday with the Attorney-General and his decision to make himself heard in the pending Supreme Court case will go ahead with what was widely believed to be his plan of breaking his silence on the big question some time this week.