Many a political observer expected Chandrika to return from China and do a 'Katrina' in the SLFP. They anticipated fireworks at the party's Central Committee meeting on Sunday with some party heavyweights taking on one another. But nothing of the sort happened. She has exuded political maturity in handling the Mahinda-JVP alliance. Although the JVP left the UPFA in a huff and is disparaging her in public, she was not so na`EFve as to oppose a political pact between Mahinda and her bete noire, whose support is vital for the SLFP at the presidential election.

Chandrika herself did likewise in 1994, by getting the JVP to pull out of the race. In 1999, she failed to secure their support and the JVP Presidential Candidate Nandana Gunathilake entered the fray. The results were as follows:

Chandrika Kumaratunga 51.12

Ranil Wickremesinghe 42.72

Nandana Gunathilaka 4.08

But for the JVP candidate, her percentage vote would have increased at that election. And the JVP today arguably possesses a somewhat bigger vote base than in 1999, because of its strong presence in Parliament and in the electorate at large.

When the UPFA was formed, some critics advanced the theory that the SLFP was doomed as the JVP would eat into its vote bank. If that ever happened, then the only way for Mahinda to regain lost ground was to win over the JVP.

Statistics and political mileage apart, the agreement between the Prime Minister and the JVP portends future trouble for the former if he is elected President. The pact unveiled by the JVP yesterday calls for preserving the unitary character of the Sri Lanka State, introduction of a new mechanism in place of P-TOMS, accommodation of all stake holders in peace negotiations, reconsidering the role of Norway as facilitator and, above all, the abolition of the executive presidency during Mahinda's first term of office. The agreement also precludes privatization of CEB, state commercial banks, CPC, ports and airports.

The agreement on the abolition of the executive presidency, no doubt, rekindles hopes for President Kumaratunga, who has many more years of politics in her and is desirous of becoming the head of state once again as Prime Minister one day. It is wishful thinking that the UNP will do away with the presidency, if Ranil wins the election, even though he will, in such an eventuality, have his work cut out with a hostile Parliament. Dissolution may be an option but being critical of President Kumaratunga's dissolution of the UNF government a few years ago, he will find it difficult to justify such a course of action. He will find himself in the same predicament that President Kumaratunga was in during the UNF government, when the UNP even dug into her handbag at cabinet meetings. An executive president is, without his or her party in power in Parliament, it should be recalled, automatically reduced to the level of a 'peon' (to borrow a term from the late President Premadasa, who used it to describe the position of a prime minister under a president from his party.)

In the event of Mahinda winning, the UNP is likely to seriously consider helping to do way with the presidency, which will then become a bunch of sour grapes to that party. If that happens, then there will be a two thirds majority in Parliament for that purpose. Should Mahinda renege on the promise after his election, then Chandrika will find the JVP on her side campaigning for scrapping the presidency. (In politics, so goes the truism, there are no permanent enemies or friends: There are only permanent interests.) Since the JVP has not ruled out the possibility of a broader alliance with the SLFP at a latter stage - the implication being its support for the UPFA government on its conditions - Mahinda will be compelled to comply with the JVP demand lest he should lose control over Parliament and become a 'peon' in the process.

The sooner the executive presidency is abolished, the better for the country. In a backward democracy, the head of state has to sit in Parliament and be stripped of legal immunity.

Rathhu Sahodarayas (as Minister Amuugama has chosen to refer to the JVP) are, true to form, peddling a populist agenda through their pact with Mahinda. However, both parties are going to gain from the proposed honeymoon - at least until after the election. It is a cause of worry for the UNP.

Meanwhile, President Kumaratunga has turned down the offer of life presidency in the SLFP. This is an act of deference to democracy. If she could venture further, sever the political moorings and rise above partisan politics, as was pointed out in these columns previously, she can aspire to the status of a true national leader, a rarity in Sri Lankan politics and command the respect of all the people, a feat that an executive president cannot think of achieving.