The LTTE offer to talk peace unconditionally is no bolt from the blue. It is a common tactic that any guerrilla outfit employs to tide itself over when its war effort goes belly up. The LTTE has used that ploy several times in the past. In 2001, too, it declared a unilateral ceasefire and offered to talk without pre conditions. But, after the peace process began, it put forth its demands one by one, the worst being its ISGA, which finally led to the collapse of the talks. This time round, it has made its offer coincide with the meeting of the Co-chairs. Clever Tigers!

No sooner had President Rajapakse been inducted in office last year, than Prabhakaran did threaten to wage his ‘final war’ for which he extracted billions of rupees from Tamils both here and abroad. And as promised he plunged the country into war by capturing the Mawilaru anicut this year. He obviously overestimated his strength. His battle plan was clear. He wanted to debilitate the Trincomalee harbour and the Palali airbase with artillery fire, cut off supplies to the troops in the Jaffna peninsula and lay siege to the town. Had he been able to do so, Jaffna would have fallen like a ripe mango on to his lap.

His plan turned out to be a disastrous military miscalculation. He should have heeded the warning by the former US Ambassador Jeffrey Lunstead that if the LTTE ever reverted to war, it would have to face a ‘more determined and better equipped Sri Lankan military.’ Prabhakaran is aware that even Elephant Pass is now vulnerable, given his massive losses and the resultant flagging morale of his cadres. If he continues to provoke the armed forces, he knows he will be only helping them to justify the continuation of their successful military campaign. Having already had his snout rubbed in the mud of Mawilaru and the sand of Muttur, he cannot claim to have a hold on the East. He is hoist with his own petard in the North as well! Hence, his decision to swallow his pride and wave an olive branch to control damage, maybe until the LTTE secures anti aircraft missiles and regroups. Begging a truce is, no doubt, too much for the Sun God to stomach but he is without any alternative.

The LTTE is quite adept at making a virtue of its adversity. Now its offer to talk peace has had some members of the international community dancing in the streets as they have got an opportunity to take the Tigers off the hook. Pressure is sure to mount on the government to reciprocate the LTTE’s gesture unconditionally.

Negotiations are the best way to resolve the conflict and the war affected are crying out for a cessation of violence. But it is imperative that the government look the Trojan horse in the belly before making a commitment. And it must pluck up courage to tell the world that if talks are to begin: There should be a brand new CFA not biased towards either party; the Norwegians cannot function as both the facilitator and the monitors as their dual role has led to a serious conflict of interests; all assassinations, extortion, assault, intimidation and abductions—the LTTE, having lost a large number of cadres in the recent battles will definitely step up recruiting child soldiers—must stop; human rights groups must have unrestricted access to the LTTE-held areas, A-9 has to be fully opened with no illegal taxes imposed on the people; the SLMM must be broad-based to include monitors from as many countries as possible including Asian nations: a timeframe must be set for talks and all stakeholders must be accommodated in the peace process.

The government ought to insist that under no circumstances, will the basis of any future talks be the ISGA. There are surreptitious moves being made to revive the ISGA, a halfway house between the currently LTTE held areas and Eelam. No room should be left for the Tigers to put the cart before the horse by demanding interim arrangements before a final solution is found.

The LTTE delegation sent to Oslo for truce talks last time, it should be recalled, refused to meet the government delegates as the latter didn’t have a minister among them. Similarly, the government must insist that a call for a truce must emanate from Prabhakaran himself and not his palace guards.

Most of all, Solheim and Akashi must be made to ask Prabhakaran whether his call to his cadres to kill him if he ever departs from his goal of Eelam is still valid. For, so long as he sticks to it, all peace processes aimed at devolution as a solution are, however glorified they may be, doomed to fail.