The LTTE seems to be desperate for a spectacular attack on a military installation in time for the Geneva talks to enhance its bargaining power and to boost the morale of its allies engaged in fund raising. Having failed at the battle front, it has apparently turned to soft targets like the security service personnel on non combat duty and small military detachments. Yesterday’s attack in Galle could be considered part of its strategy to gain some mileage in the run up to the talks. The tenacity with which the LTTE is pursuing the Navy indicates that it has suffered heavily at the hands of the Navy, the worst blow being the recent sinking of its arms ship.

The LTTE usually opens four fronts simultaneously in taking on a government—military, economic, political and propaganda. Apart from avenging its defeats, shifting the Navy’s focus from Trincomalee and causing its limited resources to be overstretched, with the Galle attack the outfit may have sought to weaken the government politically. If the LTTE can make the war spill over into the South proper, which is President Rajapakse’s stronghold, it can help strengthen the hands of his political opponents. A strong presidency attracting the main Opposition party to its orbit is a difficult proposition for the LTTE. The day a southern consensus emerges with the two main parties speaking in one voice, the LTTE will be left without an excuse to refuse to discuss a political deal on the grounds that it cannot be implemented due to differences between the SLFP and the UNP.

The political fallout of a devastating attack in the South will be the loss of public confidence in the government, which could be exploited by those in the Opposition, who are not well disposed towards the on-going efforts to forge an SLFP-UNP unity, to forestall it. For, they could marginalize the party bigwigs who are campaigning for that grand alliance, by rekindling their supporters’ hopes of toppling the government and winning a Parliamentary election like in 2001. Political uncertainty always comes with poor economic performance, which aggravates the public woes and takes its toll on the popularity of a regime.

In the past, the LTTE sought to achieve that objective by taking on economic targets in Colombo like the Central Bank, the Kolonnawa Oil Installations and the Airport. But, it seems to be wary of targeting such interests for fear of incurring the opprobrium of the international community at a time when several more countries are considering the imposition of bans. The heavy investment the LTTE has made in Kilinochchi is also believed to be one reason why it has so far stopped short of committing something that might lead to retaliatory attacks on that township. The LTTE is concerned about the safety of its version of Colombo in the Wanni, as it won’t have facilities elsewhere to entertain foreign envoys and engage in other activities to gain legitimacy. It is doubtful that it wants to return to the jungles. Therefore, attacking Colombo is likely to be its last resort. However, it may not hesitate to sacrifice anything if it could target a facility that will cause the economy to crash overnight. It was only a few months ago that the weather gods saved the country from such a calamity by making the western seas too rough for LTTE frogmen to attack the Colombo Port.

The main advantage that a guerrilla group has over a state is its ability to shift the theatre of war and take the initiative while remaining elusive with no visible movements. As we said yesterday, they follow Sun Tzu, who said, "Attack him where he is unprepared and appear where you are not expected!" That’s how Al Quaeda succeeded in bringing down the Twin Towers and the LTTE managed to target the Army Commander inside the Army Headquarters itself!

The Navy may not have expected the LTTE to strike in Galle, though it managed to avert a disaster. Similar attacks must be anticipated in all parts of the country. It is not for nothing that the LTTE keeps transporting arms, ammunition and explosives to even far-flung places like Karandeniya, where the police seized a large haul of arms concealed in a truck a few months ago.