The Long Leap
The most important event that shaped the future
of modern humanity in the beginning of its astounding progress,
about 10,000 years ago, is easy to see. It is the application of
agriculture and animal husbandry by human beings to ensure a
regular supply of food for their subsistence. Anything useful to
Man, other than food could be artificially made, but human food
and animal feed have to originate from a biological source. This
is a fact that reminds us the noble words of Lord Buddha who has
said that all living beings have to subsist on food for
survival. "Sabbhe sattha Aahara Tikitha" are his words in the
Pali language. Once they had succeeded in producing crops and
domestication of animals, there was no looking back and
agriculture, together with later industrial development, enabled
humans to be what they have become today. For all that, it is
not very impressive to realise that an estimated 854 million
people around the world do not have enough food to lead healthy
lives. Despite such alarming statistics, investment in
agriculture has remained low and foreign aid for agricultural
and rural development has continued to decline.
Rural poverty in Sri Lanka
The total population in Sri Lanka in 2003 was
about 19.7 million and about 15 million people live in rural
areas. Using a poverty line of LKR 1,338 per adult per month,
the urban poor consisted of 334,400 people or 7.6% of all urban
dwellers. In rural areas with a poverty incidence of 26.4%, an
estimated 3.8 million people are poor. Therefore, 92% of the
poor in this country live in rural areas. Most of the poor in
rural Sri Lanka depend on agriculture for their livelihood. Out
of the total population of Sri Lanka, about 34% depend directly
and about another 35% indirectly on agriculture. Therefore,
there is no gainsaying that the best way to reduce poverty in
Sri Lanka is investing to a large extent in agriculture. In fact
the theme of the World Food Day of 2006 was ‘Invest in
Agriculture for food security.’ Investment in agriculture –
together with education and health will alleviate poverty and
hunger. Most of that investment has to come from the private
sector with government support playing a key role, particularly
with facilitating private investment and laying out the guide
lines for such investment. However, Governments are also
required to enact and apply rules and regulations to form a safe
and fair environment for private investors as well as for
farmers and producers.
Rural Farmers in Sri Lanka
The main food producers in Sri Lanka are the
rural small farmers – living around functional small, tanks or
‘wewas’ or in command-areas under major irrigation schemes.
However, the farmers living within major irrigation schemes are
able to cultivate their land more intensely (More crops per
year) than their fellows around small village tanks who often
lack infrastructure such as roads, markets, electricity,
hospitals and schools, making it difficult for them to develop
business arrangements with buyers or to take their produce to
the markets. However, farmers in major irrigation schemes are
also not without their own problems, especially with marketing
of their produce at harvest times.
Paddy Buying
The government at present buys about 4%, of the
maha and 4% of the yala paddy harvest at the guaranteed price,
but the farmers complain that they have to sell the remaining
stocks at unreasonably low prices to private traders and mill
owners. There are 663 privately owned paddy mills in 21
districts of Sri Lanka. The total combined storage capacity of
the private store houses accompanying the mills is about 475,223
metric tons. The average storage is about 51% of the total
capacity at any given time (source: G. M. R. D. Aponsu, Dept. of
Development Finance). On an initial assumption that each mill
will process paddy at the rate of 10 tons per day and work for
300 days a year, the 663 mills will require about 2,386,800 tons
of paddy per year. If our yearly production of paddy is
3,300,000 metric tons, the total amount required by the private
sector will be about 72% of the total yearly harvest of Sri
Lanka, leaving an excess of about 28% of the total harvest at
the end of the year. If we leave aside 8% due to losses due to
various reasons, about 20% of the previous year’s harvest gets
carried over to the following year’s maha harvest, which most
probably is the factor that causes paddy prices to decline in
the open market during the months of March and April. If the
government can step in and buy 20% of the yearly harvest in two
equal instalments, in March and August, the months in which the
most amount of paddy comes to the market, the private traders
will have to compete with each other to get their paddy
requirement to get the mills going throughout year, and the
paddy prices in all probability will rise. The government;
however, has to have the necessary storage space and a
sufficient number of mills to process the rice within a very
short time in order to export or to keep it as a buffer stock
that can be released when the retail price of rice escalates.
The total storage space belonging to the government in various
districts amounts- to, about 144,078 metric tons (source:
Ministry of Commerce and Consumer Affairs). Twenty percent of
the total paddy harvest when converted to rice amounts to
396,000 tons. If the paddy is bought in March and August in
keeping with peak production in the two seasons, the storage
space needed to store the rice in each season will be 198,000
tons, but as we have only 144,078 tons of storage space, we have
to build or find another 53,922 tons of storage space. If this
additional space also becomes available, then we can probably
ensure that paddy will be bought by the private traders at a
reasonable price. (It would be of interest to note that the
Paddy Marketing Board (PMB) has had a total storage capacity of
335,000 tons in 1980 which had been enough to buy 42% of the
national paddy production in 1979. The total amount procured had
been about 26 million bushels or 546,000 tons of paddy, which is
about 16% of the present national paddy production)*. Releasing
the buffer stock of rice will also enable the bringing down of
the price of rice when traders resort to hoarding and earn
abnormal profits by selling rice at unreasonably high prices.
Indonesia’s move to stabilise rice prices is a case in point we
might well be aware of According to a report in the ‘Jakarta
Post’, reproduced by the Asian News Network, the government of
Indonesia had started to release its buffer stocks when the
price of rice went, up by 5%. Indonesia’s rice consumption
reached 32 million tons in 2006, but the production was only 30
million tons. The government then imported 210,000 tons to cover
the shortfall and maintain the national buffer stock at a
minimum of one million tons, which works out to only 3% of 30
million tons the country has produced. Such statistics show that
the amount of rice purchased by the government and the amount of
rice kept as buffer stocks can vary according to the prevalent
market conditions. Even with the available storage space the
government of Sri Lanka should be able to maintain a buffer
stock of about 15% of the total rice amount produced in the
country (7.5% in each season). This stock might well be enough
to stabilise both paddy purchasing and rice retail prices in the
local market.
Trade liberalisation
In Sri Lanka as in many developing countries,
rapid trade liberalisation led to sharp increases in imports,
but exports failed to keep pace. Exports depend on whether there
is market access, especially for developed countries. It is well
known that there are many tariff and non tariff barriers in
developed countries to act as stumbling blocks to potential
exports from developing countries.
This is what has virtually happened to Sri
Lanka. We have become a predominantly food importing country. In
fact we are the number one in this respect in the SAARC
countries. In 2005, we have spent 61 billion rupees on food and
drinks as follows: rice 1.5 billion; flour, 3.2 billion; sugar
13 billion; milk products 13 billion; fish products 7 billion;
and other foods 23 billion (Central Bank Report 2005) Therefore,
it goes without saying that reducing our food imports and
realising food security and self sufficiency in most types of
food is a dire necessity.
Potential for improvement
As well as achieving self sufficiency in rice, we have
exceeded the barrier by about another 20% or two months supply.
We are looking to develop rice and rice flour based food
varieties in order to make good use of the surplus. We are also
looking at export opportunities within the SAARC region and even
beyond in more affluent markets. Such objectives can only be
realised by developing high quality rice varieties that can be
produced in sufficiently large quantities to keep the
international markets open to our produce. To achieve high
productivity we have to improve agricultural technology by using
high quality seeds of high yielding crop varieties and
controlling pests effectively. Many studies show high rates of
returns to such improvements that are very much higher than
other policy measures implemented in most countries. One study
in particular looked at the spread in the Philippines of Golden
Rice, a genetically modified strain rich in vitamins A and D and
minerals. By some estimates, that produced a benefitto-cost
ratio of between 14.3 and 79.3 (The Economist May 8th 2004).
However, it must be mentioned here that some biologists have
expressed grave concerns about genetically modified crops.
Investment in technology is considered by most experts as the
most effective means of improving the income of farmers.
Teaching a man to farm better can yield far more than giving him
food or welfare benefits.