The UNP has made a stunning U-turn on its commitment to a federal solution. It has announced its position that the 13th Amendment will be a remedy, if improved upon. If the UNP spurns federalism, in so doing, it will be reneging on the so-called Oslo Declaration, which envisaged a federal solution with both the UNP-led UNF government and the LTTE agreeing. That agreement is now as dead as a dodo since both the LTTE and the UNP have pulled out in all but name.

The UNP is all out to remove the roadblocks on its path in a bid to capture power. At the last presidential election, UNP Leader Ranil Wickremesinghe failed to carry the southern electorate with him because he was identified as an advocate of federalism. If the UNP is to win back the people who voted overwhelmingly for President Mahinda Rajapaksa, it will have to play the same game as the SLFP.

It is also possible that as the LTTE is on a very bad wicket, mired in a deep crisis, the UNP has lost interest in federalism. The elephants may have thought why they, too, should sink with the Tigers.

Dislodging the government is a task that the UNP cannot accomplish with the help of the federalist lobby, business magnates and the international community. For, although they wield influence, they certainly don’t have enough votes to elect the party of their choice to power. Elections, the UNP seems to have realised at last, are won on the basis of the number of votes a party polls rather than its influence and popularity with the elite.

On the other hand, the JVP has to keep the present government going not because it loves the SLFP but because it hates UNP more. No amount of effort by the Mangala-Sripathy duo will, the UNP is aware, help wean the JVP away from the Rajapaksa government so long as the UNP remains committed to federalism, which the Rathu Sahodarayas are averse to. Else, the JVP has no difficulty in seeing eye to eye with the UNP and joining forces with it on many other issues, especially the high cost of living. Of late, the UNP propagandists have been floating rumours of a possible UNP-JVP alliance. Desperate for mustering the JVP’s support, which is a sine qua non for ousting the government, before the next Budget, the UNP may have chosen to soften its stand on federalism. However, it is not obviously desirous of forging a lasting alliance with the JVP as their economic policies are as different as chalk and cheese. If any indication is given to that effect, the UNP is going to lose a large number of votes including those of its longstanding members who hate the JVP more than anything else. The UNP appears to be striving to stitch up a coalition with the limited objective of toppling the government so that it and its allies could part ways after bringing the government down. But, will the JVP be amenable to such an arrangement?

How is the UNP going to explain its about-turn to the international community? Ranil is the blue-eyed boy of the foreign powers trying to force federalism down Sri Lanka’s throat. Blakes, Chilcotts and Akashis will certainly be utterly disappointed to receive the news of the UNP’s sudden change of heart. Whom can they now turn to in their efforts to promote federalism? What a letdown! Or, is it that the UNP is making this move with the blessings of the international community on the promise that it will continue to abide by the Oslo Declaration after kicking the government out, which seems to be the priority of some foreign powers as well? The UNP ought to make its position clear on the Oslo Declaration.

It will be interesting to see the reaction of the peace lobby to the UNP’s policy U-turn. Will some of the peace makers develop heart attacks, unable to bear the shock? How will they come to terms with the fact that their hero is no better than ‘Mahinda the hawk’?

The minority parties threw in their lot with Ranil at the last presidential election because of the UNP’s commitment to federalism. How is he going to sell the 13th Amendment to the Tamil political parties, like the TNA, which is demanding nothing less than federalism?

The most important question that the UNP must answer is: In case it manages to form the next government, how does it propose to revive the peace process with the LTTE without offering at least a federal solution?

The LTTE, it should be recalled, unilaterally stalled peace talks with the UNF government by demanding an ISGA. Had the LTTE wanted devolution under the 13 Amendment, it could have got it way back in 1987, when it was first offered, without sacrificing so many lives thereafter. By contemptuously rejecting the Oslo Declaration, the LTTE made its position clear that it wouldn’t settle for even federalism.

What is the UNP going to do with the LTTE? Will it revert to its appeasement policy or take on the outfit militarily? The LTTE, which is stewing in its own juice, might offer a truce under a different political dispensation, as it is desperate for a breather but it is only wishful thinking that Prabhakaran will ever agree to the 13th Amendment as a solution.

The UNP will also have to tell the people whether it will re-merge the North and the East and what it is going to do with the on-going war effort?

The UNP is said to be cock-a-hoop, having reverted to the 13th Amendment and sanguine about realising its dream of capturing state power soon. Of the UNP’s about-turn, UNP MP Ravi Karunanayake has said the party is repositioning itself. But, the question is whether the UNP will be able to remarket itself to an electorate which rejected its offer of bracelets, pay hikes and a plethora of other benefits and chose to elect Mahinda as they wanted the LTTE dealt with militarily.