Moscow Diary:
President Putin  speaking...

By DR.ABDUL RUFF Colachal
Analyst, Researcher & Columnist

President Vladimir Putin (R) and Dmitry Medvedev

In 2008, Russia might undergo a transfer of power unlike any in its history. Russian President Vladimir Putin has named his first deputy prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev, 42, as his chosen successor. The vote will take place on 2 March. Russia's presidential election campaign will officially begin shortly, with Medvedev the clear favorite to win. He is way ahead of his main rivals in the opinion polls, the closest being Communist Party leader Gennady Zyuganov, who has failed to mount a serious challenge since the mid-1990s. The veteran nationalist Vladimir Zhirinovsky is also running - but his tough talk is unlikely to translate into much more than a tenth of the vote, our correspondent says. Andrei Bogdanov is the fourth and final candidate. He leads Russia's tiny Democratic Party and is only polling around 1% and is insignificant. If Medvedev wins, which no one doubts, Putin is expected to become prime minister, as suggested by Medvedev.

On the streets of the country's towns and cities, everything looks more stable and comfortable than at any time in the post-Soviet period. Because of stability, Putin is placed above his processor and former President Boris Yeltsin and famed M. Gorbachev. "The tsars and the general secretaries of the Communist Party died while in office, and Yeltsin and Gorbachev retired with zero ratings, says a political analyst with close ties to the Kremlin. Now Putin might retire with a rating of closer to 80%. It's unprecedented. However, the comparative stability Russia has enjoyed under President Putin has made people wary of change.

Thanks to Putin’s strenuous efforts, Russia is on the rise again as a global power - keen to win respect and support for its views on issues such as the future of Kosovo and the Iranian nuclear program. This new sense of strength is founded on the wealth which has come with soaring prices for the natural resources which Russia has in abundance. As demand for oil and gas continues to grow, many in the West are looking warily eastwards, wondering whether Russia is a reliable partner. The quandary of what to do with a popular Russian leader still in the land of the living continues to perplex.

Putin remains a strong force not just in Kremlin, but in the Russian psyche and in the mind-set of many Russians. He is main force against US-led unipolarity and NATO's unilateralism. His leaving the international scene could wreck the Russian mind. But if he becomes premier of Russia, Russian presidency would suffer. "There may be a weaker president if Putin stays on the scene," concedes one source close to the administration. "Putin knows this and probably has something in mind." It is an issue not just inside Russia, but around the world. The year 2008 will also answer the question: "What next for Russia's most popular politician?" Medvedev has offered Putin the prime minister's job. Until his acceptance, Putin seems to have kept even Kremlin insiders in the dark. Numerous other options were talked about. It was suggested, for example, that Putin could become head of Russia's national Security Council - a role which is not clearly defined, and which he could therefore make his own.

Putin's fight against nepotism and corruption and his efforts to streamline Russian politics and economic growth endeared him to Russians and also made him hated by wealthy classes in Russia. Some of the oligarchs who acquired great wealth and power in the 1990s have fled the country, fearing prosecution. Mikhail Khodorkovsky stayed. He sits in a Siberian prison cell, convicted of fraud and tax evasion. Putin's popularity is such that Medvedev, who also runs the state gas giant Gazprom, is almost sure to win. Interest is focusing on how much of Putin's popularity Medvedev can inherit at the ballot box - and how much power Putin will retain. Medvedev's main responsibility under President Putin has been overseeing Russia's national projects - programs to fix the faults in the country's infrastructure. If Putin has finally made up his mind to make him the next President, Medvedev will have a cake walk in the poll.