US backing of Kosovo
independence will strain already testy relations with Russia

PRISTINA, Kosovo (AP) - American flags flutter almost everywhere in Kosovo, a symbol of how - through successive Democratic and Republican administrations - the U.S. has long been a friend of this nation in the making.

But Washington's stalwart support of statehood in recent months in the face of fierce resistance from Russia has raised the stakes in its increasingly testy relations with a Kremlin increasingly eager to shore up its influence among its former Soviet vassal states.

By backing Kosovo's independence outside the U.N. Security Council, the U.S. and its European allies have taken a calculated risk. They are betting that the turbulent Balkans will not plunge into violence and unrest.

If it does, the White House will take much of the blame. Reflecting the concern, President George W. Bush said Sunday that the U.S. will work to prevent violence.

"Moscow is convinced that it holds the moral high ground and will live to see yet another Western 'blunder' on par with Iraq," said Oksana Antonenko, a Russia expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, a London-based think tank.

"If violence returns to Kosovo, Russia and the West will blame each other, worsening general relations," Atonenko warned. The world is watching she said, to see if "Kosovo will be an exception - that independence will bring stability and rule of law, not chaos and insecurity."

Russia is a traditional ally of Serbia, but that is not the only reason why it vehemently opposes Kosovo's independence. The Kremlin contends it will set a dangerous precedent for secessionist movements across the former Soviet Union, including Chechnya and Georgia.

The confrontation over Kosovo could harden Russia's resolve on the other disputes that have brought ties to a post-Cold War low. While analysts say Russia is unlikely to restrict energy supplies to the West in response to recognition of the province, ignoring Russia's concerns could make Moscow less cooperative on crucial issues such as Iran's nuclear program.

Russia could also launch aggressive moves on ex-Soviet territory, such as recognizing the independence claims of breakaway regions in Georgia or even encouraging violent resistance to NATO membership in Ukraine.

The U.S. is not deliberately trying to provoke Russia, but Washington sees no way around supporting Kosovo independence, said Charles Kupchan, a senior fellow for Europe studies at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York.

"There's no question that Kosovo will serve as an irritant between Russia and the U.S., but there won't be a sudden outburst of shock," he said. "Both sides are trying to prevent an open rift."

Washington also appears eager to support the independence of predominantly Muslim - but largely secular - Kosovo to help bridge the gulf with the Islamic world and to show how democracy can work in a Muslim country.

Russia and the U.S. already are at odds over Washington's plans to station a missile defense system in Poland and the Czech Republic. The U.S. says the interceptor rockets are designed to counter a threat from the Middle East, but the Kremlin contends the real purpose is to weaken Russia.

The U.S., meanwhile, is rankled at recent rhetoric from President Vladimir Putin suggesting that Russia could aim nuclear missiles at Ukraine if the former Soviet republic joins NATO.

"It's a relationship that's been going downhill pretty much since 2002," said Steven Pifer, a former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine and a senior specialist on Russia for the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies.

And both sides, Pifer said, share the blame.