There seems to be no end to the cutting of the
Balkan melon. The process of disintegration of the region is not
going to end with Kosovo’s UDI. Instead, it is sure to have a
domino effect not only on the Balkans but also on other parts of
the world plagued by separatism. Georgia has become the first
casualty of the ethno-political chain reaction that Kosovo’s
breakaway has triggered. Ossetia and Abkhazia, South Ossetian
President Eduard Kokoity has said, have more political and legal
jurisdiction than Kosovo to declare independence. It is feared
that he may put his words into action. This alone is ample proof
of what is in store for that fragile region prone to ethnic
violence and fragmentation.
The immediate reaction of the Serb-dominated
north of Kosovo might be to secede in protest from the newly
carved out state thus compounding an already bad situation.
Kosovo might have to resort to the same repressive methods that
Serbia once used to deal with secessionist forces. If it does
so, it will be a supreme irony. Belgrade will go all out to make
Kosovo go through hell at least at the initial stages of its
transition to a fully-fledged state as it is still at the mercy
of the former, where electricity and water are concerned.
However, it is highly unlikely that Serbia will contemplate
military action, which will certainly be counter-productive and
disastrous. For, such action, instead of warranting a direct
military response from the US and the EU, will be indefensible
for its close allies like Russia determined to torpedo Kosovo’s
UDI in the UN Security Council.
Declaration of independence is the easiest of
all the tasks involving the creation of a state. Problems come
later. The bitter experience of Timor-Leste is far from
encouraging to those who seek secession as panacea. It is mired
in a crisis and slowly disappearing from the radar of its
sponsors whose focus is now on its newborn baby, Kosovo.
The unity of Bosnia also stands threatened. Its
Serb-dominated region may be prompted to merge with Serbia
creating an intractable problem which might lead to fresh ethnic
bloodletting of an unprecedented proportion. How do the backers
of Kosovo’s independence propose to tackle such a mega crisis on
The US lost no time in recognising Kosovo. So
did the EU except five members. After all, Kosovo wouldn’t have
resorted to UDI without their blessings. One may recall how
Nazis manipulated the Balkan regimes during the World War II to
bolster their rule. They used Croatian violence against Serbs
and pitted Albanians against Serbs. What we are witnessing at
present is a more sophisticated method employed by the US and
its allies that are turning the Balkan states into willing or
unwilling satellites vis-à-vis the influence of reviving
Russia. The strategy of the present-day world powers seems to
create a host of eunuch states so that they could reign supreme
till kingdom come a la the ancient Chinese emperors who
had a coterie of eunuchs as confidants.
Kosovo’s UDI has naturally sent a shudder down
the spine of every nation battling separatism. Sri Lanka was
prompt to reject Kosovo’s independence as a violation of the
Charter of the United Nations and grave threat to international
peace and security. Kosovo’s action, as the Sri Lankan Foreign
Ministry correctly pointed out, militates against the UN
Charter, which enshrines the sovereignty and territorial
integrity of member states.
If independent states are to be carved out
haphazardly according to the whims and fancies of a handful of
powerful nations, then the UN ought to be given a grand funeral.
The UN has become a handmaid of not only the US and its allies
but also some separatist movements. How certain UN functionaries
are aiding and abetting separatist terror in this country is a
case in point. Moreover, the very forces that engineered
Kosovo’s breakaway are at work in Sri Lanka’s conflict
resolution process. Little wonder that there is so much of
resistance to the attempts by the UN Human Rights Commission to
hang out its shingle in this country.
Strangely, the LTTE propagandists who were
cock-a-hoop over Montenegro’s independence in 2006 are not so
upbeat this time round. The beating the LTTE is getting in the
Wanni cannot be the reason. (They are threatening to turn the
tables on the military sooner or later.) It looks as if they had
chosen to tread cautiously on Kosovo’s independence, because of
India’s fears and concerns about their Eelam project, at a time
when their political allies in Tamil Nadu are in hot water and
they are doing their damnedest to win back India’s sympathy.
Prabhakaran’s reference to the predicament of ‘80 million’
stateless Tamils the world over in his last heroes’ day speech
had a hidden message—creation of a greater Eelam encompassing
part of India, with a separate state in Sri Lanka as the
launching pad, is the real plan of the separatist lobby.
Another reason for the LTTE sympathizers’
nonchalance may be the US stand on Sri Lanka, which has been
consistent. Whatever the reason may be, the much maligned US has
ruled out the possibility of the establishment of Eelam, though
its close ally, the UK, has, as spelt out by its envoy Dominick
Chilcott a few weeks ago, not rejected the LTTE’s goal as
something illegitimate. The most hard-hitting pronouncement of
the US policy towards Eelam came in 2000. Under Secretary of
State Thomas Pickering minced no words when he said that Eelam
could exist only on ‘Planet of the dead’.
However, whether or not Sri Lanka is affected by
Kosovo’s secession, it has created a dangerous precedent, which
will boost the morale of the separatist movements the world
over. The world has enough cause to worry about its future.
There is a strong possibility of the dark forces
that the US and the EU have unleashed in the Balkans coming home