Politics mixed with religion can be a potential Molotov cocktail. But politics vs. religion can be a deadly explosion.

Indian Central Government has capitulated before DMK of Tamil Nadu, rather than before Lord Rama, who according to the Holy Text Ramayana built Ram Sethu or Adams Bridge. This critical capitulation to LTTE friendly DMK, for the sake of the most controversial canal project is most likely to have implications for Sri Lanka, beyond the impact of the Canal itself.Prime Minister Manmohan Singh declared at the launching of the project on 02/07/05, that the project is the "fulfillment of a sacred assurance we gave specially the people of Tamil Nadu through the National Common Minimum Programme". Translation, $ 600million project had been included in the UPA Manifesto to get the DMK on board the coalition wagon.

The canal project has been mired in controversy from day one, over security, economic, environmental and now the most explosive Hindu religious issues. Sri Lanka’s concern on the possible impact of the canal on Sri Lanka, were conveyed by two Presidents and scientists, but were not taken seriously in the same way criticism by economists, Tsunami experts, security analysts, environmentalists, fisher folk and shipping experts were brushed aside. What was important then and critically vital now, is the survival of the UPA coalition government of which DMK is a vital partner. To Sonia Gandhi in particular, the observance of coalition Dharma, namely ‘agree to what the partner want to keep the flock together’ is the decisive factor. Be it Sethu project or US India Nuclear deal, coalition dharma is more important than national interest. There lies the weakness of the coalition government and the dangerous fall out on both India and Sri Lanka.Harvard educated Prime Minister, had very serious reservations about the safety and viability of the project. His office, in a lengthy letter issued in March 2005 to chairman of Sethu Project spelled out the very serious misgivings. That letter confirmed that essential studies had not been made before deciding to implement the project. The only study was the EIA study done by the Government agency NEERI.

To avert a possible collapse of the UPA coalition, Sonia Gandhi acted swiftly and overruled the Prime Minister. To her, all the issues raised by the Prime Minister and critics from Security to economics were as irrelevant, as the assassination of her husband Rajiv Gandhi by LTTE. Accordingly, she ordered the launching of the project on second July 2005 ignoring numerous protests and demonstrations. Poor Prime Minister had to swallow his pride and opposition. No wonder then they say ‘Sonia Gandhi rules and Manmohan Singh governs India’.

What is significant for Sri Lanka, is the glowing tribute paid by Sonia Gandhi at the launching ceremony to well known LTTE sympathizers such as DMK leader Karunanidi and Vaiko. She said "Dr. Karunanidi is one of the main architects of the UPA government and he has helped guide our coalition. We continue to look to his guidance in the coming years". The canal project has become a mirror of UPA coalition Government priorities and policies. As is being revealed now, not even a security analysis had been done before the project was launched and concerns of the Indian Navy and Coast Guard raised in the media were ignored. What is significant to Sri Lanka is the indifference to the threat from the LTTE in sabotaging the canal operations. B Raman former Head of Counter Terrorism at the intelligence agency RAW says "Terrorists want to attack ships sailing through narrow straits. Since Sethu canal project is creating another narrow channel through Palk Straits it can be a potential target and is bound to interest terrorist organizations". He adds " such an attack would close the channel for months".

This writer warned as far back as in July 05 that the Sethu Canal will be a tailor made target for the LTTE or any other terrorist group. This column added "The LTTE itself is highly motivated and trained frogmen well versed in under water sabotage, could attack any vessel transiting the canal. They could either plant sea mines or even use a fishing boat with suicide bombers to ram in to vessels carrying nuclear fuel or weapons or a tanker carrying crude oil. If that happens it could cause devastation too mind boggling even to imagine" (Island 27/07/05)

The Indian Navy chief Suresh Mettha and the Coast Guard Director General Rusif Contractor in February 2008 said, ‘we believe that the channel is a security risk". Contractor added "projects like Sethu could bring in more security problems. Colonel R Hariharan who writes to South Asian Analysis Group writes "all that LTTE needs to do is to scuttle one of the ships transiting the canal at a vulnerable point through sabotage or mine attack.

A suicide attack can carry out a rocket attack. The attack could close the canal for months".Our emphasis though, was not on the closing of the canal operation, but on the devastation of both human and marine lives besides the environment.

Sri Lanka / India bi-lateral relations can be impacted not only by such security concerns, but also by Delhi Government silence on the repeated threats by shipping Minister Baalu to stop Indian cargo being transshipped through the port of Colombo. Hyped benefits to shipping from the canal has now become a threat to national security and the Delhi Government itself.

Million dollar question is then, why the Indian Government is ignoring all the criticism including on security issues and stubbornly determined to implement the project. Is it purely to please the DMK or is there a hidden external power which is fueling China phobia in the region? The communist party of India which has thus far prevented US India nuclear deal, claims that it is a strategic move by USA to isolate China. It is significant for Sri Lanka that the US Navy rejected the Palk Straits as our ‘home waters’ and declared it as International waters.

The ten member committee of eminent persons appointed by the Government to prepare answers to the Supreme Court says in his report "NO major scientific study based on threats matrix is available to discourage the construction of the Channel. However as mentioned earlier, the Indian Navy Chief and Coast Guard disagree.

Janatha Party leader Subramaniam Swamy whose petition to the Supreme Court is pending, says no security study has been done at all to see what all these pieces mean. Why are the navy and coast guard raising these issues now? Were they bypassed when approving the project. Is the Government prompting such opposition from Security chief to escape from the trap laid by DMK? Is this similar to the staged attack on the Indian parliament when BJP was in power as alleged by several lawyers and Arundhathi Roy. (12 December – the strange case of attack on Indian Parliament).Anyhow when the Delhi Government faced the tug of war with two parties pulling in opposite directors – DMK vs. Hindu’s, Subramaniam Swamy raised questions about the project economic environmental security and cultural viability in the petition to the Supreme Court. After an embarrassing hiccup the Government appointed a committee of eminent persons in November 07, to prepare the answers and a draft affidavit to be submitted to the Supreme Court.

The Committee report concluded, that "the LTTE threat to the canal is blown out of proportions". The 60 page affidavit cleared by the cabinet committee on political affairs chaired by Prime Minister states that the Government respects all religions but the government should not be called upon to respond on issues of faith except in recognizing their existence. The fresh affidavit was filed in the Supreme Court of 29the Feb 2008, seeking vacation of its interim order not to do any damage to Ram Sethu.

Supreme Court is scheduled to consider the affidavit on 15 April 08. BJP opposed the new affidavit promptly as "objectionable and unacceptable". "Government cannot ask for issues of faith to be decided by the courts. It is for the elected government to decide" declared the BJP spokesman. If the Supreme Court rejects the affidavit and orders the Government not to do any damage to Ram Sethu and find an alternative alignment, it may prove to be a God sent to the Government, since it would bail out the government, from the stranglehold hold DMK is exercising, using the sacred promise. On the other hand, if the Supreme Court grants the Government request to vacate the order, the Government may decide to hold elections rather than face nation wide opposition from Hindus. The populist budget, slashing of railway fares, dispensing sops to students and Sonia Gandhi ordering party organizers to choose candidates who can win, appear to be in readiness if the Supreme Court throw the Government to the lions by rejecting the affidavit.

The Impending court decision is most likely to have impacts on Sri Lanka. If the Court declares its satisfaction on security, environmental, and economic issues as explained in the affidavit although raised by the litigants, it could weaken Sri Lanka’s case before a UN Tribunal. Hopefully the Supreme Court may not decide on issues which are beyond its competence.

The Congress party preparations for a general election, may be to pre-empt a Court decision which may go against the Government. UPA Government is in deed in an unenviable position of its own creation. Coalition partner the communist party has all but sabotaged the nuclear deal with the US which the Government desperately needs, while DMK is demanding its pound of flesh over the Sethu Canal, which has pitted the Congress government against millions of Hindus.

In the meantime dredging continues and according to independent research organizations the current monitors who are government funded institutions such as Suganthi Marine Research Insituttue of Tuticorin do not have the equipment or the expertise to assess ocean dynamics."The whole thing is a big hoax" says Coastal Action Network. This important NGO has asked for photos or videos of the dredging, but they have not received any data.

Sri Lanka delegation to the bilateral talks at technical level, repeatedly asked for joint monitoring and was flatly refused by the Indians. India has also unilaterally suspended the bilateral talks without even responding to the report submitted by our team of experts. So much for corporation in the Palk Straits!