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Serious technical deficiencies in IMF  officers research model
In the recent past, several news media have quoted from a working paper published by an IMF officer, Ms. Nombulelo Duma, on Sri Lanka’s inflation. On the first page of the working paper itself, it has been clearly stated that the views expressed in the paper should not be construed as those of the IMF, that the research is still in progress, and that the paper has been published to elicit comments and generate debate on the issues.

On receipt of the draft working paper prior to its publication, Economists at the Economic Research Department of the Central Bank carefully studied the data, methodology, econometric techniques, plausibility and consistency of the findings of the working paper in terms of the general and accepted research methods adopted by scientific researchers. Based on such study, the Central Bank Economists found serious technical deficiencies in the model used by the IMF staff member since it contained a number of highly misleading and implausible findings. The fact that the model could only explain 25 per cent of the movements in the inflation, and the fact that the author had attempted to attribute the residual inflation (balance 75%) to domestic policies (such as "loose monetary and fiscal policies") without further disaggregation is clearly not an acceptable model that any reputed economist would have applied.

Further, the model does not even examine the impact of monetary and fiscal policies on inflation. In addition, the Economists at the Central Bank of Sri Lanka replicated the results by running the same Vector Auto Regression (VAR) model, and when doing so came across several technical deficiencies. In point of fact, the author’s finding that higher oil prices have reduced Sri Lanka’s inflation is obviously highly implausible and indicates the invalidity of the model. Based on its findings, the Central Bank of Sri Lanka forwarded comments on the paper highlighting the weaknesses in the study with a view to helping the author to improve the paper to a publishable standard. Sadly, however, the author has failed to understand the technical comments and published the sub standard paper with its glaring imperfections. The inability to grasp the technical comments provided by the Central Bank also reflects the lack of professionalism on the part of those who approved the paper for distribution as well.

Since the highly erroneous conclusions of the study have been widely quoted in the local media, particularly by politicians and others, who believe this to be an authoritative study of the IMF, this clarification is being issued by the Central Bank of Sri Lanka to set out the true position.

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