Neville Laddhuwahetty in his article "Eastern Province: Impact of altered demographics" published on the Saturday the 12th April 2008 in the Island has thrown up a very interesting observation, which will bring about a new dimension to the intellectual discussion on the so called "Ethnic issue" in Sri Lanka.

Laddhuwahetty states: "An imperceptible but pertinent fact that is emerging is the demographic changes in the Eastern Province. These changes have gone unnoticed since the Census of 1981. The 2007 enumeration conducted by the Census and Statistics Department reveal that the Muslims are not only a majority in the province but also that they are the majority in the Districts of Trincomalee and Ampara. This trend could lead to the Eastern Province becoming the territorial base of political power for the Muslims.

According to the data in the Preliminary Report of 2007 the distribution within the province is: Muslims 40%, Tamils 38% and the Sinhalese 22%. According to the Report the distribution by district is: Trincomalee District: 45.4% Muslim, 28.6% Sri Lankan Tamils, 25.4% Sinhalese; Batticaloa District: 25% Muslim, 74% Sri Lankan Tamil, 0.5% Sinhalese; and Ampara District: 44% Muslim, 18.3% Sri Lankan Tamil, 37.5% Sinhalese. These ground realities could have a profound effect on the short and long term trajectories of power sharing arrangements in Sri Lanka.

The immediate impact of this statistical data is that the Muslims are emerging as the most populous ethnic group in the Eastern Province, with the Sri Lankan Tamils remaining as the most populous ethnic group in the Northern Province. Even though each province may evolve as a political base of each respective group, the fact remains that the majorities of both communities reside outside these political bases. Under the circumstances, political arrangements based on territorial distribution makes no sense."

These figures clearly confirm the logic of the leader of the SLMC leader Mr Rauf Hakeem and two of his MPs deciding to resign from the National Parliament, accepting the ground realities and making a pitch for their role in the Eastern Province. The Eastern Province will continue to be dominated by the Muslims.

There is no dispute that the Northern Province is, at the moment overwhelmingly Tamil. The question arises here as to why the LTTE, who claim to be the sole representatives of the Tamils, should continue with the war for Eelam because the war is now about the Northern Province. The demographics of the East apart from all the other considerations takes the Eastern Province out of the Eelam equation. Can we then not grow out of atavistic tribalism of homeland theories and get to accepting the fact that the "whole country belongs to all". (Atavism being a trait or character typical of an ancestral form).

If we leave it at that and bring Peace with provincial governments in the North and East, we may encounter a new set of problems. The North is mono-ethnic Tamil and it could decide to affiliate with Tamilnadu. The East though presently a mixed population could tilt to an Islamic dimension. So the country will be divided on ethnic lines with horrendous repercussions. Sri Lanka being multi-ethnic, multi-religious and multi-cultural has to work out a format which fits a pluralistic character and makes everyone feel a part of the country.

In a talk I gave at the SLAAS in December 2006, under the title "A proposal for sub-regional delineations and governance with reference to examples from abroad"

I gave the example of how Switzerland a country with a similar demographic pattern cracked the problem. Let me quote from it:

"The Swiss solution

… The percentage of its three national groups (not speaking of the Romanche, her fourth nationality) is over 70% for German, 20% French, and 7% for the Italian speaking population.

If these three national groups as such were the basis for the Swiss Confederation, it would have inevitably resulted in the domination of the large German speaking block.

The reason for the French and Italian speaking communities remaining in an enterprise, dominated by the German groups, would have been strained.

The French Swiss and the Italian Swiss would have been pushed across the border to their own blood-relatives. Similarly, the German block could have been tempted to join Germany.

In fact, the basis of the existence of Switzerland and the principle of various national groups living together is not the confederation of her three ethnic groups, but the federation of her 20 Cantons and 6 half Cantons.

This was an essential precondition for the democratic federation. The reason is that Switzerland is a union of Cantons, not of nations.

To understand this political structure, for instance, a person from Geneva does not confront a person from Zurich as a German to a French confederate, but as a citizen from the Canton of Geneva to a citizen from the Canton of Zurich.

It is important to realise that in Switzerland people consider themselves as Bernese, Zurichois, and Genevese. Their loyalties are to their Cantons and not to their nationalities as German Swiss, French Swiss, or Italian Swiss. If at all, they refer to themselves as Swiss.

The unique hallmark of the Swiss idea is the smallness of its cells from which it derives its guaranties.

The alternative to this historical development would have been three provinces not of Switzerland, but finally of Germany, Italy and France separately.

The Swiss parallel and logic of avoiding mono-ethnic and large Provinces as an alternative to their Cantonal form of government is a subject which has to be examined by the experts formulating our "New Political Order in Sri Lanka."

The contention that the District is the superior Unit of Devolution for Sri Lanka is based on this premise. This is particularly so as the majority of the Tamils and Muslims live outside the Northern Province and the Eastern Province and need inter communal harmony for their survival apart from the fact that it is an imperative for the well being of the entire country.

The purpose of new political structures and frameworks is not to satisfy vociferous elites of any community. It should be to bring citizens as close as possible to those elected to represent them. That proximity is an advantage to promote good governance. Gramarajyas, Pradeshiyarajya and Districtrajyas are the means to bring about this end. Each unit (Gramarajyas, Pradeshiyarajya or Districtsrajya ) is better adapted to respond to the special characteristics and features  of different areas in the country. The minorities in any area are better protected than in large units such as provinces.

Competences and laws would be different at various levels of administration. It might at first sight seem complex to administer at so many levels but arrangements could be made for cross-unit cooperation that is of mutual benefit.

The advantage is that such a system has been tried, tested and evolved. In Switzerland it works and works well. Switzerland has an "army" of volunteers in politics. People get elected at different levels in the political structure --federal (central) level, cantonal (district) level or commune (Pradeshiyarajya/ Gramaraja level) not for what they can get by being  elected (very few are full time politicians even at the Federal Parliament level) but what they can give to the community according to the values, thoughts and ideology they subscribe to.    

 The devolution system proposed above does not preclude power sharing among various language or religious or political based groups in the central government. The Swiss system shows how the system could work. Switzerland has a central government with only seven Cabinet ministers. These seven are elected by Parliament once every four years. Parliament could elect anyone of its members to the Cabinet. In practice it has meant people belonging to different parties (not necessarily official nominees of parties) are elected to serve in the same Cabinet. The Cabinet acts in a collegial fashion. In other words once decisions are taken by the Cabinet all members of the Cabinet must abide by the decisions. The President of the of the seven member Cabinet is elected by Parliament  for one year only and he does not have any more power than any other Cabinet Minister. The post is largely ceremonial. 

I have given an important focus on the Swiss system not that we can transplant a foreign system built on its own traditions and dynamics but we can certainly look at the political principles practiced successfully in a country with an ethnic divide similar in proportions to our breakdown in Sri Lanka. The word Federal, which appears in the Swiss political jargon, is a "buzz" word which puts off several people in this country. What is important is not semantics but the essence. What is important is to give citizens a greater voice in the affairs of governance and have a closer contact to their representatives.