Today's elections to the North Central and Sabaragamuwa Provincial Councils have assumed the proportions of a referendum as well as a general election. The government has, according to none other than President Mahinda Rajapaksa himself, sought a fresh mandate for its hitherto implemented programmes, especially the much flaunted war effort. The Opposition has turned the PC polls into a national election of sorts. It seems to believe that if it can win today, its victory will act as a catalyst for greater political change, which will culminate in a change of government. Opposition and UNP leader Ranil Wickremesinghe has urged the voting public to help make a breakthrough in his political offensive against the government.

Thus, the PC polls have become a fiercely fought contest between President Rajapaksa and Opposition Leader Wickremesinghe rather than the actual candidates in the fray. Mahipala Herath, Ranjan Ramanayake, Janaka Perera and Bertie Premalal have been shoved off the centre stage. They have played only supportive roles.

For a seasoned psephologist, the outcome of today's polls may not be difficult to predict, though it is being claimed in some quarters that the two competitors––the government and the UNP––are neck and neck in the race. It is also clear that the polls results won't trigger a political avalanche for either party. If the UNP loses today, its loss won't mean that everything is hunky dory for the government. Nor will there be a change at the UNP's helm in such an eventuality. The status quo will remain and the party will have the capability to strike back later. The Kumaratunga government, it may be seen, scored a string of victories from 1994 onwards but lost the 2001 general election. (It was only one year before in 2000 that her party had formed a short-lived government.)

If the government loses today, it won't still be without trump cards. It will have time to control damage and some more councils to dissolve like the Southern PC, which it can bag quite easily. Moreover, a loss at the PC polls won't necessarily translate into a defeat at a general election. The impact that the war is going to have on the electorate in time to come should also be factored in.

The only party that won't recover from a defeat today is the JVP, which has been losing ground in democratic politics steadily since it broke ranks with the SLFP in 2004. A loss at today's polls will give a fresh impetus to the JVP's journey towards oblivion in the political mainstream.

It is unfortunate that the run-up to the polls was marred by violence in some areas in the NCP and Sabaragamuwa. The blame for that goes to the government, whose goons started it all. The police pathetically failed to act fairly and efficiently, as was evident in the violent incidents reported from Anuradhapura the other day. We only hope that today' elections will take place, free from violence and rigging.

The Elections Commissioner has erred on the side of caution. He has vowed to declare the polling at the centres affected by violence or malpractices null and void. He must honour his promises in the name of democracy, should what is feared happen. It must baulk at nothing to ensure free and fair polls so that the voter will emerge the real winner––to hell with violent politicos of all hues.