At this point, Wickremseinghe had lamented that it was those who were closest to him who were laying siege to him in this manner. To this, the dissident parliamentarians had said that all those closest to him had left him. They had pointed out that those like Rohitha Bogollagama, Milinda Moragoda and Karu Jayasuriya whom he promoted from the municipality level upwards, had left him. Before leaving, all these people had spoken to him in an attempt to reform him but they were not listened to. After they left in disgust, Wickremesinghe was in the habit of saying that they went to enjoy the perks of office and washing his hands off the whole affair. The dissidents had told him that this time he won’t be able to do that because they will not leave the party but will stay on and fight because they want to reform the party and turn it into a winner once again.
In the coming few days, the committee of party seniors appointed to look into the proposals for reforms put forward by the Johnston Fernando-Lakshman Seneviratne group will submit their final report to Ranil Wickremesinghe. The Fernando-Seneviratne dissident group has been asking for a change of leadership, but the reforms will not come anywhere near that. The maximum that can be expected is for the deputy leadership to be given to Rukman Senanyake with S.B.Dissanayake, Sajith Premadasa and Ravi Karunanayake being appointed as the three Assistant leaders. Joseph Michael Perera is tipped to be appointed party chairman.

After the presidential elections of 2005, there were no real reforms because the dissident group led by Karu Jayasuriya, Rajitha Senaratne, G.L.Pieris and others, simply upped and left to join the government without fighting Wickremesinghe to the finish. One of the changes that did take place was the abandonment of the policy of appointing non-politicians to the positions in the party. Mr. N.G.K.K. Weragoda, a retired senior civil servant who held the post of general secretary of the party was removed and Tissa Attanayake appointed in his place to satisfy the faction that was backing Wickremesinghe. Malik Samarawickreme another non-politician was asked to step down from the position of party chairman and the post was given to Rukman Senanayake.

Reshuffling positions

After every major defeat that the UNP suffers, there is a shuffling of positions in this manner. In the wake of the 2004 parliamentary election defeat, the party general secretary Senarath Kapukotuwa was asked to resign and Weragoda appointed in his place. Attanayake was appointed deputy general secretary. This time around too there may be a change in the constitution, but not with the purpose of appointing another leader. There was a great deal of hype in the media about the working committee meeting that was held last Thursday. Having announced that the meeting was on, Derana TV telecast interviews with Johnston Fernando, and Dr Jalath Jayawardene who spoke for a change in the leadership and with Vajira Abeywardene who spoke against it. In addition to this, there were clips of Lakshman Kiriella and Mangala Samaraweera addressing a press conference. They spoke against any change in the leadership.

This was one of former SLFP strongman Samaraweera’s rare public appearances these days. He was not to be seen even in the NCP and Sabaragamuwa PC elections. But he came out in defense of Wickremesinghe in this instance because if Wickremesinghe goes, Samaraweera will also find himself out in the cold. Whoever succeeds Wickremesinghe will never accord Samaraweera the place accorded to him by Wickremesinghe – that of the UNP’s deputy prime minister in waiting. If Wickremesinghe leaves, S.B.Dissanayake will become very powerful in the party and that will be the end of Samaraweera’s political career.
Even though Derana TV broadcast all these interviews on the same day, thus creating the impression that there was a mighty row within the UNP, that is not strictly correct because the working committee meeting had been a relatively tame affair given the circumstances. This was only to be expected because the UNP is a methodical party, and there was no room to discuss the removal of the party leader because there already was the committee of party seniors looking into the question of party reforms. It was Dayasiri Jayasekera, the Kurunegala district parliamentarian who had first raised the issue in the working committee. He had insisted that the committee of party seniors complete the process of obtaining the views of all UNP parliamentarians on the proposed reforms and submit the complete report within two weeks. Lakshman Seneviratne and Ravi Karunanayake had supported the suggestion. S.B.Dissanayake had not said much at the working committee. Johnston Fernando had however made comments about the fact that Ranjan Ramanayake who had just been inducted to the working committee had spoken disparagingly in public of the party leader and Ranil’s proclivity to prevaricate and postpone matters. Other than these comments by Fernando, the working committee meeting had gone off without much drama.

The real drama took place before the meeting on Thursday morning when parliamentarians Johnston Fernando, Lakshman Seneviratne, Talatha Atukorale, Dr Jayalath Jayawardene and Indika Bandaranaike had met Wickremesinghe and said that the UNP had been defeated for the 16th time under his leadership and that the party will never be able to raise its head at this rate. They had urged that he should resign forthwith. Their case was that every decision made by Wickremesinghe was wrong and that was why the party was in this pass. They said that S.B Dissanayake had come over to the UNP and had enabled them to form a government but he could not even retain the power that had been handed over to him on a platter. He was deaf to all entreaties and had surrounded himself with people who had no political experience and people like Charitha Ratwatte and various foreigners. Nothing had been done for the UNP rank and file or even the country. The short lived UNP government had ended with SB finding himself in jail.
The justifiable tirade

They had told Wickremesinghe that even to this date, he was operating with a few close confidantes and that he had no thought for the party or the victory of the party or the ordinary UNPer. The dissidents urged that this PC election defeat was even worse than the defeat at the presidential elections and that the government had won all electorates in both the provinces with huge margins even with the JVP contesting against them. The parliamentarians had said that all UNP MPs worked indefatigably for these elections and that despite all their efforts, the party lost and the reason for that is that the people of this country do not trust him (Wickremesinghe). If the UNP accuses Mahinda Rajapakse of giving money to the LTTE, the people will not accept that. But if they are told that Wickremesinghe gave money to the LTTE, they will readily believe that - all this being because the people have a visceral dislike of Wickremesinghe and deep seated mistrust of him. The people also fear that if Wickremesinghe comes back into power, even the areas recaptured from the LTTE will be handed back to them. They had told Wickremesinghe that the party cannot move forward even one inch under his leadership.

At this point, Wickremseinghe had lamented that it was those who were closest to him who were laying siege to him in this manner. To this, the dissident parliamentarians had said that all those closest to him had left him. They had pointed out that those like Rohitha Bogollagama, Milinda Moragoda and Karu Jayasuriya whom he promoted from the municipality level upwards, had left him. Before leaving, all these people had spoken to him in an attempt to reform him but they were not listened to. After they left in disgust, Wickremesinghe was in the habit of saying that they went to enjoy the perks of office and washing his hands off the whole affair. The dissidents had told him that this time he won’t be able to do that because they will not leave the party but will stay on and fight because they want to reform the party and turn it into a winner once again. The MPs pointed out that at all 16 elections the UNP lost, the people had been telling him to leave. They had pointed out that anywhere else in the world a politician would resign after facing defeat twice or thrice at the most; but he was sticking on even after facing 16 defeats.
They accused Wickremesinghe of working to ensure that the UNP is defeated again and again in the future as well. Wickremesinghe had listened to this tirade and asked the parliamentarians for time to decide. This had irritated the already agitated parliamentarians even more and they had said that he kept on postponing things and prevaricating and then going abroad. He will return in about a month and then hold a working committee meeting and go overseas again. Last year he had been more out of the country than in it. They had told Wickremesinghe that this time he will not be allowed to postpone and prevaricate as was his wont and that he should resign forthwith. Thereupon the irate parliamentarians had walked out of the meeting. These intra party squabbles in the UNP have now gone from the sublime to the ridiculous and people have lost interest in following these flare ups. They always end in the same depressingly familiar manner. After all the froth and fury, Wickremesinghe is still around and this latest round is not going to be any different.

Last hope gone

The reason why some UNP parliamentarians are beside themselves with fury and anguish is because of Janaka Perera’s defeat. Ranjan Ramanayake’s defeat was a foregone conclusion and in any case, he was a stop gap measure brought in to save the party’s face after Upul Shantha Sannasgala declined the chief ministerial candidacy. The joke in the UNP at that time was that they were looking for a ‘Madduma Bandara’ to face the inevitable without flinching. This refers to the second son of Ehelepola Dissawe of Sabaragamuwa who faced the executioners of Sri Wickreme Rajasinha bravely while his elder brother screamed and struggled when the executioners seized him. Well, the UNP found their Madduma Bandara and he played the role to perfection and there’s nothing more to that. But Janaka Perera was a different kettle of fish altogether. He was the UNP’s secret weapon. The government’s biggest plus point was the war and in Janaka P, the UNP found someone with credentials that would enable them to take on the government. But even he had to face defeat. Many in the UNP expected the retired major general to be able to deliver to them what Rauff Hakeem failed to deliver at the EPC elections. They expected Janaka P to be a turning point in their fortunes but his team didn’t make it.
Furthermore, there was always this belief in the UNP that when the SLFP and the left movement splits, that portends a victory for the UNP. In 1977, the SLFP and the left parties the CP and the LSSP contested separately and lost to the UNP. In 2001 too, the only reason why the UNP won the parliamentary election was because the JVP and the PA contested separately. In 2001, the JVP and PA votes put together exceeded the votes polled by the UNP/SLMC/CWC + other coalition partners. The reason why the UNP lost the 2004 parliamentary election was because the JVP and the PA contested together against the UNP. So many UNPers had great hopes of being able to win once the JVP had irrevocably distanced themselves from the Rajapakse regime. But at these two PC elections, the JVP has been reduced to an insignificant fringe party and with that the hopes of the UNP have been dashed.

The UNP has run out of options. The strategy of bringing in prominent individuals has failed to produce results and they don’t have anybody bigger than Janaka Perera to throw at the government. What stretches before them is nothing but the bleak prospect of defeat at all the forthcoming PC elections and the parliamentary or presidential election that will follow. Many of the seniors in the party may retire without holding office ever again. Thus there is a great deal of despondency sweeping through the ranks of the party as could be expected in any party in similar circumstances. But trying to effect a change in leadership may not be the best solution for the UNP at the present moment. It may be the case that sometimes the leadership may not be the only cause of victory or defeat. Despite his many failings as a leader, it has to be said that Wickremesinghe did provide leadership to these two elections. He fielded the two most formidable chief ministerial candidates available and it was his voice that was heard in the campaign. All the TV channels focused on his speeches because his was the most credible attack on the government heard on the UNP platform.

Why RW should stay

Some years ago, Wickremesinghe’s performances were pathetic to say the least. In 2001, in the run up to the UNP victory later that year, he cut a very poor figure in the Jana Bala Meheyuma organized by Gamini Atukorale. The present writer can still remember Wickremesinghe complaining over the microphone at Punchi Borella, that the PA government tried to kill him. Lawyer Srinath Perera, who was a professional without any political experience put up a much better performance there. But at this election there was none of that amateurishness to be seen in Wickremesinghe. It can be said that all concerned pulled their weight but still the party lost. There are times when the opposition has to wait until a powerful and popular government runs its course. In this case, for the UNP, it appears that there are no options but to wait it out. Mahinda Rajapakse is far too popular a leader for the UNP to be able to topple a government led by him. Janaka Perera lost to Mahinda Rajapakse, not to Berty Premalal Dissanayake.

Why changing the leader at this stage will be unwise is because the probability is that the next leader who takes over may also lose to Rajapakse. What would happen then is that the UNP would have dissipated the political capital of that alternative leader as well. We could see this happening in the Australian Labour Party when Simon Crean could not take on John Howard. The Labour Party sacked Crean and brought in Kim Beazley. But he too lost to Howard because Howard was just too powerful and too popular at that particular moment. Later the Labour party sacked Beazeley as well and appointed Kevin Rudd. By that time the John Howard administration had run its course and Rudd won. It may be a wiser option for the UNP to allow Wickremesinghe to remain as it would be he who takes the flak for the inevitable future defeats. In any event, Wickremesinghe himself has no intention of leaving and his support base within the party is solid. For everyone who opposes him, there will be two to support him. Even if he loses the support of every UNP MP in parliament, he will find support from among the provincial councilors and if he loses the provincial councilors as well, he can find support from among local government members and if they too give up on him, he can always draw on the inexhaustible pool of ordinary UNP members. There will always be people starry eyed with ambition who would be willing to do the bidding of the UNP leader in the hope of getting ahead in life. If the parliamentarians fall out with Wickremesinghe, this will be seen by those lower down in the hierarchy as an opportunity for themselves, and so the cycle goes on.

Of course, after a while, the UNP will be a party of nonentities as it has already become in some areas. On this leadership issue, the UNP is obviously faced with a situation not faced by any political party anywhere in the democratic world. Hence the solutions that they come up with will also have to be unique. Open criticism of the party leader by Johnston Fernando and the other rebels may end up with the party rank and file turning against them because many of them will see an attack on the party leader to be an attack on the party itself done at the behest of the government.

JVP reeling

When he JVP politburo met last week, for the first time since their resounding defeat at the NCP and Sabaragamuwa elections, the main topic was naturally the elections.
Somawansa Amarasinghe stated that from the day the election was called the government worked towards obtaining this result by utilizing to the maximum the resources of the state. The actual thinking of the people is not reflected in this result. K.D.Lal Kantha said that the JVP had a substantial support base in the Anuradhapura district and that this base is intact and that this result does not mean that the people have rejected the JVP or that they have accepted the corruption and nepotism of the government. Anura Kumara Dissanayake said much the same vis a vis the Polonnaruwa district.Vijitha Herath said that many people are in doubt as to the authenticity of this election result and that there is a rumour to the effect that there was a massive electoral fraud. All these feel good statements made at the JVP politburo flew in the face of the admission made by party leader Amarasinghe at a press conference soon after the election to the effect that the JVP has in fact, suffered a setback at the election in terms of votes and that they will not make an attempt to conceal that fact.

When the JHU central committee met last week under the chairmanship of the Ven Omalpe Sobitha Thero, they too discussed the results of the elections. Their view of why the JVP lost so badly was very different to the view held by the JVP. Sobitha Thero described the JVP’s poor showing by means of an allegory. There was once a donkey, he said, who used to carry the king around on its back and everywhere it went the people bowed in the presence of the animal. Later the donkey began to believe that the people were actually paying obeisance to him and not the king. So one fine day, he threw off the king and went before the people to receive the usual obeisance. But the people, enraged at the animal for having thrown off the king beat the animal and chased it away.
It may be accurate to say that the UNP and the JVP spent the whole of last week trying to come to terms with the drubbing they got. For the JVP, these two PC elections may well turn out to be a turning point like the 1977 parliamentary election was for the LSSP and the CP. The writing was on the wall even though both the JVP and the UNP were too dense to realize it. The clearest pre-election indication of which way the cookie will crumble was the way the public reacted to the call for a general strike by the JVP and UNP jointly on July 10 this year. The people were indifferent to their call and the strike was a complete flop. After the strike failed, JVP trade union leader Lal Kantha spoke of a three day strike and just before the election there were news reports to the effect that the private bus operators association had decided to join the proposed three day strike. So things were looking up. But with the result of this election, any chance of going ahead with the proposed three day strike has basically evaporated.