It is clearly seen that the war between the LTTE and Government Security Forces is moving towards a decisive phase.

After the capture of the East, Forces were able to capture Mannar which was under the control of LTTE and now they have entered Kilinochchi which is considered as the main power base of LTTE. According to some war analysts, the LTTE has so far mobilized only the second grade fighters for their forward defence lines and have not mobilized the first grade fighters. But for the Kilinochchi battle, LTTE has replaced the Forward Defence Lines with first grade fighters. According to some analysts, after this battle, the LTTE will have to withdraw in to the Vanni Jungles. But according to some analysts, the LTTE strategy is to allow penetration of the Security Forces in to their area of control and then strike back, which will enable them to cause severe damage to the Govt. Security Forces.

Public opinion among Sinhala People is pro anti-LTTE war. Although there is confusion in the opinion of the Tamil people, they do not like to see the downfall of LTTE.

Compulsory nature of the war

A minority among the Sinhala society who believe that justice should be granted to the Tamil people also do not like to see the downfall of LTTE. It is not because of a special liking for the LTTE, but due to the fear that if the Security Forces are able to defeat the LTTE, then the rights of the Tamil people will be forgotten totally thereafter. According to them, the Government should withdraw from the war and take up a stand to negotiate with the LTTE for the purpose of finding a political solution for the problems. Western countries too more or less share the same line of thinking. This minority among the Sinhala society could be considered the most just and right thinking; but it is sad to say that such thinking is utopian.

What the LTTE is seeking is a separate state or else a confederation solution where they have the freedom to possess arms. They are not prepared to come down at least by one step. Even though it was stated that they agreed to an Internal Self Determination at the peace talks held during Ranil Wickremesinghe’s government, after the collapse of the peace talks, they said that they never had such an agreement.

Government of Mahinda Rajapakse, or, for that matter, any Government that acts in a very sensitive manner towards the grievances of the Tamil people cannot agree to a separate state or a confederation solution. It means that no government will have the ability to agree to their demands, even with many rounds of peace talks, unless the LTTE changes their unwavering stand. Then, what is to be understood next is that as long as they stick strongly to their stand, they cannot win their demand through negotiations. Then it becomes compulsory for them to fight to achieve their objective while it becomes compulsory for Lankan Government to fight to defeat that objective.

Aim of the LTTE is utopian. It can not be achieved. It is not only the Sri Lanka state that will not allow them to achieve their objective; India also will not allow it. Under these circumstances, as long as there is LTTE political domination over the Tamil people whether we like it or not there could only be constant war, with or without peace talks.

The next important question is whether there is any possibility of forwarding a solution to the Tamil people as long as there is LTTE domination. The Tamil people who are under LTTE domination will not accept any such solution. Under the circumstances, where an armed LTTE acts as the sole representative of Tamil people, there is no ability for the Tamil people to accept any political solution, even if it is ideal. Also, the LTTE will never allow any solution to be implemented if it has been decided disregarding them. Hence, a Government with an alternate solution will be pushed in to a war to defeat LTTE, if that solution is to be implemented. Hence it is discerned that the war cannot be prevented and is compulsory.

Even with the peace talks, there was war in the country for the last twenty years. During this period of 20 years, there were only few brief intermittent periods without any war. Hence war cannot be considered as something new that has come into this country.

Homeland

It is not only the political system they are asking for which acts as an obstacle to reach a solution. Even if they do away with the idea of a separate state or a confederation and agree to a Federal system, they are seeking control not only of the North, where the majority are Tamils. They seek the control over the East too with the North and East combined as one region. They consider both the Northern and Eastern provinces as the traditional Homeland of Tamil people. Through this they claim ownership for 30% of the entire territory of the country and nearly 50% of the coast and ocean resources. The historical factors they submit for this claim are not correct and also cannot be considered justifiable. Three communities live in the Eastern Province. Even though Muslim people use the Tamil language, they are thoroughly against being treated as a part of the Tamil community. Sinhalese and Muslim communities of the Eastern Province taken together will become the majority of the Province. While in the North, there is a vast majority of one community, the condition in the East is different. One single community does not demand a majority and they are more or less of equal proportionss.

In the General Election, held in 1977, the TULF seeking a mandate for a separate state contested in both North and East Provinces. But they could only win in the North. They received only about 36% of the votes from the East. At the beginning, even India did not favour the merging the Northern and Eastern Provinces. Finally, in the Indo-Lanka Agreement, temporary merging of the two Provinces was agreed upon as an essential step to persuade all Tamil political parties to support the Agreement. However the decision was subject to a referendum to be held in the East. But after the Agreement was signed the LTTE and also the other Tamil political parties were thoroughly against a referendum being held in the East. The reason was that the majority of the people, according to the constitution of the communities will not agree to the merging of the two provinces. When the majority of the people of the East do not agree to merging, simply because one community or a political campaign puts forth an extreme demand, how can the merging be effected? Any merging done by force will finally result in severe blood shed. It is important to introduce a scheme for devolution of power. But then, there should not be one unit for both Provinces. Instead, there should be two units. That is one unit for North with a vast majority of Tamil people and one unit for the Eastern Province where it is a mixed population. If the people of the Eastern Province so wish, the two units can be amalgamated.

Once they get away from the path of the armed struggle, Tamil political parties will still need to withdraw from the concept of traditional homelands to evolve a justifiable solution. In this crisis, myths prevail not only among the Sinhala community who are supposed to be the oppressors, but also among the Tamil community who are considered as oppressed. Myths on both sides act as obstacles to a justifiable solution.

The difference in the War

It should be expressed that there is a difference in the present war from the war that was there for more than two decades. One characteristic of the war that was waged earlier was its aim to pressurise the LTTE to agree to a peaceful solution. But the present day war can be considered as a war with the objective of defeating the LTTE. This war can also be considered as one which was sought or asked for by the LTTE on its own accord.

Even though there could have been various ulterior motives in the peace talks by Ranil Wickremesinghe, LTTE had been granted a large amount of concessions by the Wickremesinghe government which no other government would have given. If the LTTE genuinely wanted the continuation of peace talks which were started by the Ranil Government and had been stalled halfway, they should have supported Wickremesinghe at the Presidential election and not obstructed his victory. But what LTTE did was to obstruct such victory using all their might. Through this, by historical means, they brought in to power the person who will dig their grave.

This can be considered as one of the two grave and foolish deeds done by LTTE in their political career. The worst was the assassination of Rajiv Gandhi. It is not only an instance where they showed their political stupidity, but also an instance where they showed their political arrogance. Even though they may have felt highly elated on their ability to assassinate a front line leader of India, it brought devastating results to the LTTE in the long run. That was the day India understood the LTTE correctly as a highly venomous serpent. Along with this incident, the doors which were open to LTTE in India were closed. The second foolish action of LTTE was the prevention of the victory of Ranil Wickremesinghe. It can be stated that these two acts of stupidity was favourable to the Sri Lankan State and for the destruction of LTTE.

Not only did the LTTE allow Mahinda Rajapakse who is digging their grave to come in to power; they also enraged him by following a path of attack, not giving a respite period once he came in to power. This act of LTTE helped to create a strong environment for Rajapakse to start the anti-LTTE war. LTTE also created two able warriors who will take action mercilessly in the war which is to be initiated against them. The LTTE tried to take the life of the Army Commander by using a woman suicide bomber. But their aim went astray. Then they targeted the Defence Secretary which plan was also not successful. But through these acts, LTTE created two strong willed warriors for President Rajapakse who will fight in a most committed, merciless manner without settling for a half way peace.

War benefits whom

Historically, the present war will not be beneficial to the LTTE, but will be beneficial to the Government. Before this, in the wars that were waged against the LTTE, the Security Forces did not have a clear aim. The Security Forces waged a war not to defeat the LTTE, but to weaken them. The Security Forces did not have a strong psychological environment to wage a war to defeat the LTTE.

But President Mahinda Rajapakse restored their esteem and created a psychological environment to wage a war with self-confidence. Disregarding the local or international pressures, he continued the war effort to chase and strike the LTTE. In the previous wars, the Security Forces waged a war for defence to a greater extent and for offence to a lesser extent. Now it has become a war surpassing the lines for defence and advancing further for offensive strikes. For the first time, the LTTE has to wage a war for their defence.

Previously, LTTE was in an unsurpassable condition, military-wise. They fought in a miraculous manner. While they were withdrawing strategically, they targeted important objects in an unexpected way. They affected a major attack in some part of the country at least once in two months. After attacking and taking over the Elephant Pass forces complex, they continued with their attacks on Katunayake Air Force base and Katunayake airport. At that time they were at the peak of their military prowess. They also had a favourable international environment.

They used Tamil Nadu as a base camp for their struggle. Due to the sympathy they received at the international level, they collected funds in the Western countries without any hindrance. They received necessary supplies by sea without any difficulty.

In spite of the fact that they were at the helm in a very strong manner with an international environment favourable to them, they lacked the intellect to settle the accounts correctly. Their eyes went blind with the arrogance of violence.

Then came the historical era of their downfall and destruction. The international environment which was once favourable to them changed dramatically. A large number of countries in the world proscribed them as a terrorist organization. Thus barriers were erected against their fund raising. The ability to acquire supplies was limited. The break away of Karuna Amman from the LTTE weakened its authority in the East and limited the recruitment capability of the LTTE army. It is during this historically crucial period where LTTE has started its downward journey that Mahinda Rajapakse who is determined to defeat LTTE militarily, comes into power. He is able to harness the support of India and America for the merciless war initiated against the LTTE. He is able to push the LTTE to a position where they fight not for offence but for defence. After the attack at Anuradhapura, any surprising attacks of serious nature by LTTE cannot be heard of. During the SAARC Summit, when the LTTE declared a unilateral Ceasefire, the Government straightaway refused to accept it. Even then the LTTE was unable to do any destruction, be it major or minor, in Colombo City. The Tamil people living in Colombo helped the LTTE due to fear. They provided them with lodging. But now the Tamil people living in Colombo, through their fear of the security forces, do not offer any support to LTTE may be unwillingly. Even when the forces are chasing the LTTE and striking them hard, we do not hear of any major incidents as in the past. It is now categorically true that the LTTE is facing the downfall and destruction.

War and the Tamil People

What is the good or the bad that will be caused to the Tamil people due to the defeat of LTTE in this war? It may be that the Tamil people may suffer to some extent at the defeat of LTTE due to the wrongful esteem inculcated in them by the LTTE. But on a long term basis, when the LTTE domination over the Tamil society is demolished, there will be a greater benefit to the Tamil people and not a loss to them. Even if they do get anything new from Mahinda Rajapakse government after the victory at war, they will be sure to get many concessions indirectly due to the elimination of domination of LTTE.

There will be no war in the absence of LTTE. There is no need to have expansive high security zones if there is no war. Those who lost their lands and property due to high security zones will get the right to be resident in their lands. When there was a struggle to crush the JVP insurrection, the Sinhala people in the South had to bear the burden of that struggle. Once the insurrection was defeated, the Sinhala people in the South were able to live freely. In the same manner, once the war by Prabhakaran is defeated, the Tamil people in the North will be able to have a new life with freedom. Due to the LTTE domination freedom of expression had ended. Emergence of an alternative leadership had got halted. After the elimination of LTTE domination, new ideas will emerge in Tamil society and also new leadership and new activities. After defeating the LTTE, if the Government is not granting their rights to the Tamil people, then they could resort to a new method of struggle to win their rights in a more streamlined and realistic manner without involving any form of violence. Instead of living continuously in a stagnating and never ending war situation with or without intermittent periods of ceasefire, the Tamil people will be able to come out of this doomed, desperate condition if the war ends at its earliest even though it would be through the defeat of LTTE.

The Tamil people should consider seriously and in depth the fact that even without their rights the life they had previously was much better than the life they are now living after the commencement of the violent struggle to win a separate state.

The state is the only authority vested with the right to hold arms. Even when there is severe injustice, the policy of taking up arms is disastrous. The Tamil people who are engulfed in a vicious cycle of violence can only be salvaged by the military defeat of Prabhakaran’s LTTE campaign. If there is a need to continue the struggle for obtaining the due rights, intelligent leadership will emerge from among the Tamil people in future who even after a lapse of time will engage in a civilised form of agitation.

(open for dialogue)