Perhaps, following the recent developments in the Caucasus, Russia now wants to tie up the Iranian nuclear question and Iran’s security which are touchy matters for the U.S. and the West with that of her (Russia’s) interests in the Balkan and the Black sea area. Among the latter are the recognition by the West of the Unilateral Declaration of Independence of Kosovo, over which Russia protested. That amounts to intervention in a Russian sphere of influence and impinges on Russia’s security on another flank.

Russia in Venezuelan naval exercise

Russia’s agreement to participation in naval exercises with Venezuela in the Caribbean in coming November seems to have added another dimension to the U.S.-Russia stand though a Pentagon spokesman had played down its significance. The spokesman pointed out that the U.S. joined in such manoeuvres all around the globe and with many other nations. Though the spokesman for the Russian navy said that the agreement for joint manoeuvres with Venezuela was reached in July during the visit of President Chavez to Moscow (pointing to a pre-Georgian decision), the U.S. cannot be taking the development lightly, considering that in its awake came the action by President Bush of withdrawing from the Congress the agreement signed with Russia in May this year (first announced at the Great 8 Summit of 2006) on cooperation in the civilian nuclear industry, including cooperation in the production technology of MOX fuel (Mixed –Oxide-fuel), sale of domestic uranium to U.S consumers without the mediators and anti-dumping dues, production of reactors on fast neutrons.

State Secretary Condoleezza Rice was quoted by the media saying "unfortunately, given the current environment, the time is not right for this agreement." The U.S. decision to renege on it could have been on the cards for sometime specially after the disclosure of Russia’s support for the development of the Iranian nuclear potential and reasons which were seen as disadvantageous in it to the U.S. and the little prospects of the agreement being ratified by the Congress. Equally well, there were fears in certain military quarters in Moscow that the agreement might give access to the U.S. on vital nuclear matters. So, there were plus and minus factors for both sides. The virtual cancellation of the agreement by the U.S. Presidential action is seen affecting relationship with Russia in two ways. Firstly, that it ‘soured’ the relations even further; and secondly, the U.S. lost out on the opportunity to shore up her national security by monitoring and eventually cutting down the amount of nuclear material there. (in Russia).

Perhaps, it was the cumulative effects of the disclosure of the Russian missiles offer to Venezuela and later to Syria which sent Israeli Prime Minister Olmert on a hurried mission to Moscow and the more recent disclosure about a Russian –Iranian deal to supply S300 missiles to Iran, which has been denied both by Iran and Russia, which persuaded the U.S. to re-think the advisability of going through the agreement with Russia on the export of missiles.

The Russian decision to joint naval manoeuvres with the Venezuelan navy in the Caribbean, however innocuous it may seem, coming at this particular juncture in straining relations between the two great powers, and the nature of participation – that it is not a case of a few Russian Destroyers taking part but with the heavy nuclear- powered guided missile cruiser, Peter the Great, which could deliver nuclear or conventional warheads leading the Russian fleet, could be seen as a direct affront to the authorities in the Pentagon. It could have been seen as another demonstration that Russia is now ready to reciprocate to the U.S. in the matter of the latter’s meddling in what was former Soviet backyard. That the U.S. humanitarian aid deliveries were accompanied by U.S. warships armed with guided missiles was not taken kindly in Moscow though it may not have had the same implications as the first confrontation in the Cold War when the "USS Missouri" was deployed in the Black Sea in 1946 to deter [Russian] then Soviet threats against Turkey. The dispatch of two Russian TU 16 bombers to Venezuela for military exercises this week (8th September) could be a further demonstration of Russian displeasure over U.S. response to her policy in the Caucasus. The head of the Institute of Strategic Assessment in Moscow, Knovlov, went on record saying that Russia also could be nasty; "You send warships to the Black Sea and we send bombers next to your door."

The deployment of Russian S 300 missiles in Iran, or at least the news that the missile launchers are on the way in Byelorussia may not have the menacing implications like Cuban missile crisis under Nikita Khrushchev but the message is clear that Russia expects her to be treated as a super power and could still manipulate her foreign policy to meet U.S. moves.

The Russian leadership has not minced words about their position that Russian retaliation in Georgia commenced as result of the U.S. not restraining the Saakshivili government from invading the separatist provinces of South Ossetia and Abkhazia and that it was encouraged in doing so by the U.S. which was training the Georgian armed forces and the navy. One of the first things that was observed was the U.S. trainers evacuating from Georgia as soon as the Russian offensive began with full force.

Presently, relations between U.S and Russia have reached its lowest ebb since the renewal of the Cold War over Russian intervention in Georgia and immediately following U.S. agreement with Poland on the implementation of the missile shield project. However, it is clear that the U.S. has not been able to convince her European allies in the NATO over taking a tougher stand towards Russia as was seen from the failure of the recent Western Summit to decide on any such decision like imposing sanctions against Russia. European powers are not unconcerned that Russia still holds the trump card in respect of energy supplies to Europe. The Black Sea corridor which the U.S. is trying to safeguard through wooing Georgia, Ukraine and Azerbaijan cannot yet replace the present dependence on Russian pipe line. Nor has Russia’s action in Georgia won approval of pro-Russian partners in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. There are frightening elements in that action for the independence of small states and even for China which has major stakes in her troublesome Central Asian provinces.

The rhetoric on the part of the U.S. and rushing of humanitarian aid to Georgia with U.S. warships accompanying may serve the immediate purpose of forthcoming presidential elections and boosting the morale of the pro-U.S. Caucasian states. The long term effect of this political game and rhetoric is going to have a negative effect on global stability towards achieving which one hoped the two super powers were omitted at one stage. As Prime Minister Putin put it not so assertively, Russia too is a great power!