A rumour discussed in political circles last week had it that four members of the UNP (Democratic) group would be re-joining the UNP with Karu Jayasuriya among them. The reasons averred for Jayasuriya’s disenchantment with the government was that Basil Rajapakse was to be made an SLFP organizer in the Gampaha district. This would have increased the competition for Jayasuriya who would otherwise easily have been number one on the UPFA list. Another reason was that the president had not gone to see Jayasuriya who is recovering in hospital after surgery while Ranil Wickremesinghe had. All these factors fuelled speculation that some in the UNP(D) group were planning to rejoin the green party. The president did not visit Jayasuriya because the minister himself had told Rajapakse not to do so both for security reasons and the hassle it would cause at the private hospital where he was recuperating.

As for Basil Rajapakse being appointed an SLFP organizer for the Gampaha district, Jayasuriya has no issue with that either. He would have had powerful SLFP contenders for the number one slot in terms of preference votes anyway in the form of Anura Bandaranaike and Jeyaraj Fernandopulle if they had not been removed by circumstances. In any case, he is a man who ran with Bandaranaiake on the same list and came on top. Besides, it would be a supreme irony if somebody of Jayasuriya’s stature was to change sides because of a possible preference vote war with a candidate who has not yet contested an election. Despite this, there are in fact rumblings within the UNP(Democratic) group which is allied with the government. It is only natural that there should be some ferment, because there is the distinct possibility that the government will go in for a snap parliamentary election next year. It is possible that the parliamentary election will precede the provincial council elections that are due.

Election jitters

Given the fact that a parliamentary election is around the corner and their continuation as parliamentarians is at stake, the seventeen members of the UNP(Democratic) group have been compelled to size up their prospects. There are three schools of thought within the group. One school is for joining the SLFP and contesting the next election as candidates of the UPFA. The second says that the group should remain as the UNP(Democratic) group and contest the election on the UPFA list but as a coalition partner. They contend that their presence would be even more useful for the government in terms of attracting breakaway UNP votes if they were to contest as a coalition partner with a separate identity. There is a third school which says that the group should rejoin the UNP. It is when an election nears that the members of the breakaway group will have to take stock of their prospects for the future. One has to strike while the iron is hot. It is not for nothing that Wickremesinghe visited Jayasuriya in hospital. Common courtesy is useful if there is an advantage to be won.

When it comes to the question of getting re-elected in order to continue in their present positions, it is every man for himself, and may the devil take the hindmost. As the iron thus grows hot, there are voices in the mainline UNP that are raised in favour of getting the defectors back. They know that getting all 17 would be impossible, but even three or four would be better than none. Last week, when the present writer interviewed UNP chairman Rukman Senanyake, one of the questions I posed was about the moves by a section of the party to make him the party leader or the deputy leader because of his rapport with the JVP. Those who wanted him as leader believed that he would be able to deliver the numbers to be able to form a government. But Senanayake dismissed this saying that he does not believe the JVP will ever form a government with the UNP and that the most that could be expected was to get their cooperation to topple the government. What he said was that it was more important for the UNP to try and get the 17 defectors back rather than to try and win over the JVP. This is the `pull’ factor operating within the UNP.

At least in theory, many members of the UNP (Democratic) group have never thought of themselves as anything but UNP. It is only now, with a parliamentary election looming in the horizon, that they have had to seriously consider which side they are on. In this there is a `push’ factor operating from within the government. This is that even though some of the17 dissident MPs are experiencing a very high subjective state of satisfaction with the responsibilities that they have been given, overall there is the question of some key government pledges not being fulfilled. Foremost among these, is the promise of solving the issues of politically victimized UNP members. The UNP(D) has 400 documented instances of political victimization dating back to the Chandrika Kumaratunga regime. The democratic group laid much store on solving the problems of those UNPers subject to political victimization because that would have raised their standing among ordinary UNPers.

Political victimization

The breakaways have been able to settle about 100 cases of political victimization during the one and a half years that they have been in the Rajapakse regime. The complaint is that they have not been able to solve the problems of the other 300. The cooperation that they have been getting from UPFA ministers in this endeavour has generally been less than enthusiastic. In this, Minister Nimal Siripala de Silva stands out as an exception with many of the 100 or so cases settled being in the health sector. Transport Minister Dullas Alahapperuma had also cooperated in settling some cases in the CTB and the Railways. . However, some ministers had been least accommodative with the worst offenders being the Petroleum Corporation and the CEB which, ironically, were part of Karu Jayasuriya’s Power and Energy Ministry during the UNP government. R.A.D.Sirisena, who was the Samurdhi minister under the UNP regime and is now the general secretary of the UNP (Democratic) group, had tried to get three drivers that he had recruited when he was the minister reinstated after they had been dismissed by the CBK administration.. He had even approached the prime minister, but nothing had worked. Later, the three drivers had gone to court and won some compensation but that too had not been paid.

This question of political victimization is nothing new. When the UNP was in power between 2001-2004, they were confronted with the problem of party men who had been victimized in various ways during the seven year rule of Chandrika Kumaratunga. If one asks any member of the UNP (D) group how many of these outstanding issues they managed to solve during the UNP government, the answer will be not a single! Given the fact that they were not able to reinstate a single UNPer while the UNP was in power for two and a half years, the fact that they have managed to settle 100 ie one quarter of the total, in the one and a half years that they have been with the Rajapakse regime is a very creditable achievement indeed. It is ironic that problems of UNPers that could not be solved when the party was in power have been solved at least in part under an SLFP led government. It may also be unrealistic for them to expect the UPFA government to settle all 400 cases while the mainline UNP is still in the opposition. Given the fact that the UNP(D) is only a breakaway group of the UNP, half of the total outstanding cases may be a reasonable target.

The reason why those in the UNP(D) group are keen in getting these cases of political victimization solved is because they believe it will enhance their stock among the voters who traditionally vote with the UNP. The reason why so many UPFA ministers had been less than accommodative of the efforts of the UNP(D) group to solve these cases of political victimization is probably because many of the UPFA ministers feel that these UNPers are not going to vote for this government anyway and that there’s hardly any point in wasting their time on aggrieved UNPers. Besides, the UNP(D) group has quite a lot of ministries under their command and it may be the case that the SLFP ministers have no desire to accommodate any more UNPers in the areas that they command. There is another aspect that many of the SLFP ministers fail to understand. R.A.D.Sirisena is upset because he couldn’t get three drivers reinstated. Many SLFP ministers wouldn’t see this as a reason to get upset.

Famine victims

However there is a problem. R.A.D was the minister of Samurdhi in the UNP government and the only jobs that he gave during his entire two and a half years as a UNP minister were these three driver postions in the ministry. In the past one and half decades he has given only three jobs and even those three recipients were booted out by the PA – thus, in the final analysis, he has given no jobs at all in the past one and a half decades. This is the kind of thing that would make any politician want to really think over his reason for existing. This is why some members of the UNP(D) group are literally chewing their own backsides in anguish over this question of reinstating political victims. R.A.D.Sirisena gave three jobs when he was the minister of Samurdhi. Rajitha Senaratne gave six jobs. And S.B.Dissanayake gave twenty two jobs, all of them in the category of labourer and driver. These jobs are precious to these politicians and are bound up with their very notion of self respect.

Many in the UPFA are unaware as to why the UNP was really defeated in 2004. They probably think it was a combination of the JVP joining them and the disastrous ceasefire that the UNP signed with the LTTE. But the real reason was the scant disregard that the UNP showed to their own people. The extent to which the UNP victimized its own members is not known outside the UNP because even the UNP dissidents who joined the government have not told their new SLFP friends the real extent of the deprivation they had been subject to under their own government. There is of course the fact that all these wrongs cannot be put right by the present government and understanding is required on both sides. The government for its part will have to realize that they are dealing with people with serious carry over problems from the past which normal SLFP politicians would find hard to grasp. They had experienced nothing of the sort except those unfortunate enough to have been in the UNP from 1994 onwards. The UNP(D) group will also for its part, have to realize that trying to get the present government to deal with all the sins of omission and commission of the government of 2001-2004, is not a practical proposition.

As we said earlier, there is one school of thought within the group of 17, that they should rejoin the UNP. Such individuals would undoubtedly be very much in the minority. Anyone who remembers what life was like in the UNP, even when in power, would have second thoughts about going back for more of the same. Apart from this, the reasons why they left the UNP – the lack of internal democracy and so on - have not yet been solved. In fact, after they left another crop of dissidents have come up within the UNP, saying much the same things that the UNP(D) group said before leaving. So even if some members of the dissident group return, what will they be returning to? Whoever leaves, one thing is certain. The government is not going to even notice. Quite a few members of the UNP(D) group are satisfied with what they have been able to achieve and will be prominent members of the present government so long as it lasts. And anyway, the government has the numbers in parliament with the Weerawansa group to be able to afford a few defections. The man to watch perhaps, would be ‘My Own’ Mustafa the parliamentarian from the east, who feels left out of all the goings on in the east.

Belated enlightenment

After the government ended up with egg on their faces in not having provided security to Janaka Perera, they seem to have learned a lesson. They had to needlessly share a part of the blame whereas they could have escaped that had they continuously provided him at least the security contingent ordered by the Supreme Court. This is not the first time that this happened either. Parliamentarian T.Maheswaran’s security was withdrawn last year, thus paving the way for his assassination as well. The government now seems to be intent on avoiding avoidable blame in the future. The UNP held its first meeting after the assassination of Janaka Perera – a meeting of the Hali Ela electoral organization - at the Hali Ela Jana Kala Kendraya. The Badulla police had provided security and all those entering the venue, were body searched.

When the JNP politburo met last week under the chairmanship of Wimal Weerawansa, the main topic of discussion was the situation developing in the neighbouring South Indian state of Tamil Nadu. By that time they had got the news that the meeting of political parties summoned by the Tamil Nadu chief minister had decided to pressurize the Indian central government to intervene in the Sri Lankan issue failing which they would withdraw support from the government within two weeks. Expressing his views, Weerawansa said that it’s not just the Tamil Nadu government, but also the New Delhi government that does not want to see an end to the LTTE problem because India would then have no leverage over Sri Lanka. Parliamentarian Nandana Gunetilleke said that India may not make the same mistake that they made in 1987, but in order to appease the Tamil Nadu government, they may make some decisive intervention. National organizer Kamal Deshapriya stated that this is not only just pressure coming from India, but also the western nations which were unable to pressurize Sri Lanka directly were now doing so through India. The JNP decided that they will rally all political parties to the cause of resisting western pressures that are coming through India. A series of discussions between the JNP and other political parties and groups are scheduled to be held next week.

When cabinet met last week, one of the main topics discussed was the extension of the GSP+ facility. Professor G.L.Peiris, the minister of export development, briefed the cabinet on the present state of the negotiations for the extension of the facility. He pointed out that a team from the EU was preparing to come to Sri Lanka to examine whether this country had met all the criteria to qualify for GSP+. The minister pointed out that one of the criteria that Sri Lanka would be judged against would be whether Sri Lanka had subscribed to international conventions against torture and degrading treatment. Peiris stated that he had protested over this to the European Commission because there wasn’t a single complaint with regard to torture and that this criteria should be removed. The president said that there was no point in getting a concession that will be withdrawn anyway after losing our independence. He instructed .Peiris to write to the EU registering Sri Lanka’s protest and stating we are not willing to submit to any examination by the EU.

The president said that representatives of the garment industry had come to see him and asked him to agree to this examination because if we fail, the effects will be felt only in 2009 or 2010. Although these would be election years for the UPFA, he was not going to bow down. He stated that if prices of SL manufactured garments went up in the EU and we lost market share as a result of losing the GSP+ concession, then they should look for alternative markets in countries such as Brazil and the Middle East relying on the quality of the local product to find new markets. Rajapakse stated that if push comes to shove, they would provide the garment industry with a subsidy like the fertilizer subsidy in order to keep the industry going until an alternative is found and to ensure that no factories are closed down or jobs lost.

Encirclement of Sri Lanka

There are some points to ponder here. The garment industry is more than 30 years old, but the GSP+ concession was given only in 2005 because of the 2004 December tsunami. Before that the garment industry was exporting to the EU, without GSP+. If it is the case that in three short years an industry which had been independent for 27 years has been brought to a position where they cannot survive without that concession, then this is the second tsunami to hit Sri Lanka. No wonder India and Thailand refused all aid from the west in the wake of the tsunami – that aid renders you worse and not better off in the end. If it is the case that the garment industry is going to collapse without GSP+, then the industry is doomed anyway because Sri Lanka is a middle income country not entitled to such concessions. And all it can hope to do is to survive for another three years until the concession is finally withdrawn and the industry folds up. If it is a case of having to hold the hand of a doomed industry until it folds up, I suppose the government can do that on its own, without compromising on national issues.

It may seem a major folly to lose what we have. But if what we have is a handout in the form of a tariff concession which has made an otherwise competitive industry uncompetitive, then the country would have been better off not accepting that tariff concession in the first place because all it has done is to ruin an industry that was doing fine without it. So what we have here is a case of aid gone wrong and the sooner this is rectified the better.

The decision not to cooperate with the EU ‘investigation’ was taken on Wednesday and by Thursday, the Sri Lankan ambassador in Brussels had conveyed to the European Commission that Sri Lanka would not subject itself to any investigation by the EU because it was inconsistent with our national sovereignty and self respect as a nation. The position was that the absolute maximum that Sri Lanka would gain in terms of reduced tariffs to the EU if the GSP+ concession were to be retained would be 150 million USD per year and that too would not in perpetuity but for just three years more. It was simply not worth compromising on national sovereignty for this kind of money. Given the kind of statements that were emanating from the EU, it was obvious that there was prejudice against Sri Lanka and the ‘investigation’ would have been made use of as a forum to propagate views against the Sri Lankan government.

When the JVP politburo met last week, one of the topics discussed was the attempt being made by the politicians in Tamil Nadu to halt the advance of the Sri Lankan armed forces, but that it was obvious that these noises were being encouraged by the Indian central government as well. When the JVP sponsored National Patriotic Centre met under the chairmanship of Ven Dambara Amila with the participation of JVP parliamentarian Vijitha Herath, Ven Amila said that there was tremendous pressure coming from India to halt the military operations against the LTTE and that the government cannot be allowed to succumb to these pressures.

Nearly 21 years after the events that led to the Indo-Lanka Peace Accord of 1987, we seem to have come full circle. The Rajapakse administration resembles the J.R.Jayewardene regime in more ways than one. In the 1980s there was a strong government with a weak opposition. And the government was under siege by both the west and India which supported the LTTE openly. J.R.Jayewardene broke out of the international encirclement by signing a peace deal with India. How will the Rajapakse government overcome the same trap?