In the general election, every vote counts. It would be a grave mistake indeed to think that anyone could carry a general election by playing exclusively to the Sinhala nationalist gallery or a military constituency.

Mahinda Rajapakse is aware of this. Gothabaya Rajapakse once informed me of certain disagreements he was having with his brother, with Mahinda emphasising that there is a political angle and not just a military one.

Recently in Europe, a senior diplomat inquired as to my opinion of developments in Sri Lanka. I replied that like Winston Churchill, Mahinda might win the war, but to win the peace, we might need the First Earl, Clement Atlee of 5th Lane, Colombo 3.

Winning the war requires a certain mindset to be empowered and certain painful changes to the socio economic structure.

If the LTTE had militarised Tamil society in order to fight the "Sinhala-Buddhist" state, then a mirror image of it has taken place in the South, with the present regime having to militarise Sinhala society in order to fight the LTTE with all the resultant baggage and consequences.

An unfortunate by-product of all this is the prevalent Sinhala centric pronouncements and expectations, regrettably emanating from the defence establishment and predictably from certain fringe political formations of the majority community.

After rumblings in India, this constituency seems to have folded their flags and crawled back under the stones, grudgingly.

Since the electoral numbers are stacked so tightly, the administration is hesitant to put forward any meaningful package of devolution at present, fearful that it will be accused of dividing the country (rata bedanawa). A devolution package at this stage would cause dissent and chip away at the Rajapakse support base.

During the Summer, I met Kiriella of the UNP at the Ambepussa Resthouse on our way to Kandy. He was of the view that Rajapakse will win a second presidential term, but that the UNP has a good chance at a general election.

Mahinda Rajapakse may be aware of this.

He may also be aware that the UNP will capitalise on the Mervin Silva factor. It is not surprising that legal action has been filed against Silva, on the run up to a general election. Legal action may be used as a mitigating factor, to appease those who are outraged about Mervin. The Mervin Silva factor has not only outraged the English speaking intelligentsia, but also the Sinhala constituency, the strata represented by Rupavahini staff. This is what used to be the bedrock of the Rajapakse constituency. Silva’s behaviour is abhorred universally and he is identified with Rajapakse with the resultant tarnishing. Imagine an election poster with Mervin Silva, with the caption "do you want to vote for this lot?"

Legal action also seem to be being used to neutralise the proxies of the LTTE, the TNA. Several TNA MPs were questioned by the Terrorist Investigations Department this week, presumably with a view of bringing formal charges for breaching provisions of the constitution in relation to advocating separatism. TNA members have a history of advocating separatism, especially on platforms in Europe and North America, with the Sri Lankan authorities turning a blind eye so far.

The other tool in the UNP arsenal, cost of living, is to be reduced by the government in the run up to the election. But will it be adequate?

Perhaps the most potent tool in the UNP arsenal is Janaka Perera. If the government cannot protect the war hero Janaka Perera, how can it protect ordinary citizens would be a cry that would stir the electorate. The fact that both husband and wife died together would stir emotions, which the Rajapakse’s would not be able to defend.

The Rajapakse administration wants elections soon, and has factored in the expected economic downturn next year. Here in Britain they are expecting deflation instead of inflation next year, while Germany has officially already gone into recession.

Military victories are very much in the Rajapakse administrations favour, but it is doubtful if they have factored in the high casualties expected within the next three months, which are already on the rise and its implications on the electorate.

The war cannot be fought without high casualties. But as casualties rise, it may reflect negatively in the ballot box, as a means of directing their sorrow and anger of losing loved ones or losing limbs.

Winston Churchil won the war and lost the elections. Margaret Thatcher won the war and won the elections. The deciding factor was casualties. Casualties of the Falklands war was bearable for the British electorate. If Thatcher had got involved in a long drawn out war like Iraq or Afghanistan with high casualties, she too would have lost.

Rajapakse’s war has momentum. This will be in his favour.

The priority and focus of the electorate in the coming general election should not be the past or the present, but the future. The most relevant question for the electorate is ``who can win the peace?’’

Can the advancement of a perception that Sri Lanka is a Sinhala country win the peace? Such a position would alienate the entire minority constituency and by not taking a stand on the issue Rajapakse may have done just that. Ranil also kept quiet, but the people who made these comments, are identified with Rajapakse and not Ranil. Other than the minorities, many Sinhalese too would have found the comments to be in bad taste. The speaker of the Sri Lankan parliament was of the opinion that these were not comments that should have been made in public even if they are in ones mind.

The achievements of the armed forces are quite profound, but the Sinhala centric political comments that have emanated from the military establishment has seriously tarnished their kudos amongst the intelligentsia. In the eyes of a substantial segment of the population, the army is viewed not as a professional army of the republic battling terrorism for freedom and liberty of its citizens, but as a Sinhalese tribal force enforcing Hutu – Tutsi style tribal will. Even members of the other armed forces may have cringed away from these "Sinhala" comments, going by their deafening silence.

There were always inherent dangers of a predominantly Sinhala force fighting a predominantly Tamil force. Those in authority under the present watch obviously did not realise these finer points and the need to be seen to be vigorously impartial and independent, rather than tribal.

This lack of awareness of the finer points, seem an inherent weakness in the Sri Lankan establishment and will cost votes at the general election.

When the Chief Justice appeared on TV doing his Buddhist thing, many viewed it as poor judgement for the CJ of a republic to be identified with a particular religion to such a great extent. For those who had doubts, the remand order of the Buddhist monk over the loudspeaker issue, instantly restored his balance and integrity and that of the Supreme Court.

They say that justice alone is inadequate. Justice needs to be seen to be done. The same goes for independence and integrity.

 More recently the Foreign Ministry was having photo exhibitions of LTTE atrocities in Western capitals. Whoever thought this one out has absolutely no idea about international opinions about the Sri Lankan conflict or the Western mindset. The LTTE used to have similar exhibitions all over Europe and it seems that the limits of Sri Lankan imagination are restricted to copying the LTTE and committing the same mistakes. Sri Lanka can never beat the LTTE, when it comes to photo exhibitions of atrocities. Can Sri Lanka have a photo exhibition of atrocities to counter the `83 riots or white van disappearances? Further more the Western mindset would cringe from such exhibits. Western TV and newspapers would not even dream of publishing the horrendous pictures publicised in Sri Lankan media as they would consider such exhibits as being vulgar and unacceptable as they aspire to a different quality of life.

When I used to visit these LTTE photo exhibitions in Europe and North America, I used to smile to myself in the realisation that the LTTE were shooting themselves in the foot for their ignorance of the Western mindset. It was like the Tutsi’s having a photo exhibition of atrocities committed by the Hutu’s.

Now the Sri Lankan government is doing the same. Hutu’s having a photo exhibition of atrocities committed by the Tutsi’s.

A more appealing photo exhibition would have been to publicise the development in the East. A child solder under the Prabakaran regime, now going to school under Mahinda Rajapakse’s regime, would have caught the imagination of the Western mindset and that is something which the LTTE could never compete with. It would also have had a unifying effect among the communities, rather than the perception of the Hutu’s showing pictures of Tutsi atrocities and vice versa.

All these inherent weaknesses send signals to the electorate and the international community including Tamil Nadu and India. The gentle guiding hand of Lakshman Kadirgamar is surely missed.

In 1959, Senerath Paranavithana wrote "The higher culture, including the languages, brought to these regions by the Sinhalese as well as the Tamils, was adopted in varying degrees by the people of a stone age culture, who were there before their arrival. Thus the vast majority of the people who today speak Sinhalese or Tamil must have ultimately be descended from those autochthonous people of whom we know next to nothing."

As Paranavithana has correctly pointed out, both the Sinhalese and Tamil speakers have an equal stake in Sri Lanka that go back to the beginnings of history, and those who advocate otherwise can never win the peace. They will place Sri Lanka in a perpetual state of conflict and militarisation, reducing her to poverty.

Like the mindset required to win the war, winning the peace also requires a certain mindset that understands the pain of a peoples who feel battered, abused, rejected and unappreciated because of an accident of nature resulting in them being born to a particular ethno linguistic identity. They do not view Rajapakse as a liberator, saviour or a hero.

Parachuting in of Pillayans, Karunas and Devanandas will only be a temporary stopgap, and will not last the test of time. Fundamental attitudes need to be challenged and changed. Power needs to be substantially devolved to democrats rather than tyrants with an eye on improving the quality of governance for all.

Peace can only be won, when all the peoples in Sri Lanka feel secure, valued and they feel a sense of belonging. They need to be stakeholders, not mere tenants, as some want them to be. In the absence of this, the divide in Sri Lanka will grow wider and deeper as is happening at present.

Malin Abeyatunge writing in the "Island" this Wednesday under the heading, "Be humble in victory" has suggested that instead of a week of celebrations for the army’s return to Pooneryn, there should be prayers at temples, churches, kovils and mosques. How refreshing and enlightening an idea. This will unite all communities, unlike the celebrations planned, which would be viewed as Hutu’s celebrating while the Tutsi’s look on, repeating the same mistakes.

Those who fail to understand the above phenomena are whistling in the dark.

The challenge faced by Rajapakse and others that may form governments in the future is to transform the present military machine into an economic machine and forging national unity as never before and facilitating the emergence of a new stronger Sri Lankan identity, empowering all its many peoples.