Political Watch

The latest news coming from within the UNP is that some parliamentarians are preparing a petition to be presented to the party leader requesting that S.B.Dissanayake and Sajith Premadasa be appointed to the UNP’s deputy leader and assistant leader slots. These MPs, while suggesting these two names will refrain from specifying who should get which post – that would be left to the discretion of the party leader and for Dissanayake and Premadasa to settle among themselves. The appointment of a deputy leader and an assistant leader has been on the cards for some time and some MPs are frustrated at the lack of progress. They hope to expedite matters by expressing the wishes of the UNP parliamentary group without waiting for a long drawn procedure involving the calling of applications and the scrutiny thereof.

Last week, the terrorist attacks in neighbouring India grabbed world headlines. These attacks have implications for India’s policy on Sri Lanka. What the Mumbai attacks showed the Indians was the kind of effect that terrorist organizations in neighbouring countries can have on India especially in the context where sections of the Indian population are sympathetic to those terrorists. Terrorist organizations have done to India what no hostile state has yet dared to do. Muslim terrorists from Pakistan have attacked the Indian parliament and now some group not yet clearly identified caused the lockdown of the whole of Mumbai. But what really took the cake was the LTTE’s assassination of Rajiv Gandhi. After the Mumbai attacks, India, will have to adopt a zero tolerance policy towards terrorism.

If there is a section of the Indian population that is in sympathy with foreign terrorist organizations for whatever reason, India should deal with it at their end without trying to appease such sentiments. Once the Indian population recovers from the Mumbai attacks, it shouldn’t be too difficult for the Indian government to whip up anti-terrorist sentiments among the people, even among those living in Tamil Nadu. The Islamic terrorism that India faces is nothing compared to the sophistication of the LTTE and the Indian government would do well – in view of its own future wellbeing - to silence all those in Tamil Nadu who suggest that the Sri Lankan government’s thrust against the LTTE should be stopped. With the Mumbai attacks, the demise of the LTTE and not the appeasement of extremist elements in Tamil Nadu should be the priority of the Indian central government.

UNP(D) group spurned

Last Friday, a rumour flew around Colombo that UNP leader Ranil Wickremesinghe had met Mr. Karu Jayasuriya with a view to getting the dissidents back to the party. But this was incorrect. Before he left for India the week before last, Wickremesinghe had told those who took the trouble to ask that he would meet up with the (D) group after he returns. Upon his return, Wickremesinghe did not seem to be in too much of a hurry to talk to the dissidents. On Friday, there was talk that Wickremesinghe met Jayasuriya. This was not correct. It appears to be that Wickremesinghe is marking time just to keep the reconciliation lobby in the UNP happy even though he has no intention of taking the UNP (D) group back. Even though the UNP leader did not meet Karu Jayasuriya, party sources say that he spoke to two other members of the UNP(D) group and that negotiations were on - on an individual basis and not as a group. The UNP earlier took back Gampaha district parliamentarian Edward Gunasekera and Imtiaz Bakeer Marker from the dissident group. Be that as it may, the UNP has not yet called off the disciplinary inquiries against the 17 dissidents – a move that was widely expected as a prelude to a reconciliation.

On Saturday last week, Wickremesinghe presided over a meeting of officials of the Lanka Jathika Estate Workers Union (LJEWU) and electoral organizers from the plantation areas. This meeting was attended by Renuka Herath, Ravi Samaraweera, Lakshman Seneviratne Tissa Attanayake and others. The UNP leader told those present that 2009 is going to be an election year and that an urgent programme should be launched to win the votes of estate workers. At this point, Renuka Herath queried whether they were going to contest in alliance with the CWC. The party leader’s response was that it was up to the CWC to decide who they were going to contest with and that whether they come with the UNP or not, the work of the party had to be taken forward.

The question raised by Ms Herath is pertinent in the present context. Before 1989, when the UNP was in power, the party had its own support bases in most areas inhabited by the ethnic minorities. Ethnic parties have always existed in this country, but the UNP always held its own. Things started changing after President Premadasa began wooing the minority parties like the CWC and the SLMC. Even though President.Jayewardene too did woo the minorities, he did so on his own terms. There is some truth to the theory that some members of the UNP like Vajira Abeywardene and Rukman Senanayake have expressed up to now, that bringing down the cut off point to qualify for representation from 12.5% to 5% has had disastrous consequences for the UNP. From the time of Premadasa, the UNP has become increasingly captive to the minority parties with the process having been accelerated after 1994.

‘Outsourcing’ political support

In the east, the UNP would have been completely helpless if not for the SLMC at the last provincial council election. But once upon a time, the UNP had its own base in the east, with Tamil, Muslim and Sinhala leaders. But today, after forming alliances with the regional ethnic based parties and sidelining the UNP’s own people in those regions, the UNP has ended up with no presence in the east on its own account. In the present negotiations to get members of the UNP(D) group back, one of the most frustrated members of that group is the eastern parliamentarian My Own Mustapha. But so long as the UNP allows the SLMC to call the shots in the east, UNP Muslims there like Mustapha have no place. The UNP is in thrall to the SLMC to such an extent that at the last EPC elections, the UNP leaders of all three districts in the east including the predominantly Tamil Batticaloa district, were SLMC Muslims! The same can be said of the up country Tamil areas – despite Saumyamoorthy Thondaman’s stranglehold over the Tamil population in the plantations, the UNP of J.R.Jayewardene was able to build up a base of its own because it was the UNP that granted citizenship rights to large segments of the Indian Tamil population in these areas and also began the process of improving their housing conditions. The LJEWU in its heyday under the direction of Gamini Dissanayake was a vibrant organization. It is now but a shadow of its former self.

The question that Renuka Herath asked Wickremesinghe was very pertinent because if the CWC was going to join the UNP for the election, then regional UNP leaders like herself will have no role to play at all because all the shots will be called by Thondaman. In 1977, Gamini Dissanayake came first in the multi-member Nuwara Eliya seat and Anura Bandaranaiake came second while Saumyamoorthy Thondaman came third. Since then, the granting of citizenship rights has increased the number of Tamil voters in the up-country areas, and the UNP’s dependency on outsourcing political support in these areas has increased correspondingly. If Navin Dissanayake of the UNP(D) group wishes to go back to the UNP, one of the main impediments will be the UNP’s proclivity to cede the entire plantation areas to the CWC – in which event, he too would be left high and dry like Renuka Herath who managed to make it to parliament only when S.B.Dissanayake was unseated due to failure to attend parliament for three months after he was imprisoned for contempt of court. Arumugam Thondaman, who dislodged Herath, by contesting with the UNP, is now serving in the government.

That same evening a meeting of the political parties affiliated to the UNP was held which was attended among others by SLFP(M) leader Mangala Samaraweera and businessman Tiran Alles and SLMC leader Rauff Hakeem. The main item discussed here was the political campaign to be launched against the government in January after the budget. The UNP leader notified his colleagues in the alliance that some of those who had contested from the UPFA were willing to contest under the UNP banner at the next election and that they would have to look at this seriously. No names, naturally, were revealed. But the thing to notice in this is that Mangala Samaraweera does not appear to be playing the role of a go-between in this because the sitting UPFA parliamentarians/ministers are supposed to have contacted Wickremesinghe direct.

Hunting for celebrities

A meeting of the UNP’s party seniors committee was held last week where it was decided to appoint organizers for the electorates of Nikaweratiya, Bingiriya and Polgahawela in the Kurunegala district within the coming week and to appoint organizers for other vacant electorates in the country by the end of January 2009. When the UNP political affairs committee met last week, they considered a proposal put forward by parliamentarian Vajira Abeywardene for a house to house campaign and another proposal put forward by party general secretary Tissa Attanayake to appoint representatives for every 10 households and to appoint village level leaders styled ‘Janabala Lekam’ to preside over these representatives of households. The UNP thereby hopes to build a huge grassroots organization which they hope will be their ticket to power. The PAC decided to implement both programmes from January next year. The party leader said that since the provincial council elections are due next year, they should also appoint the chief ministerial candidates for the other provinces. He told the PAC that there was no problem in the central province because S.B.Dissanayake had come forward.

UNP national organizer S.B.Dissanayake has for some time now, been saying in various fora that he is prepared to come forward as the UNP’s chief ministerial candidate for the central province. Last week’s comment in the PAC by the party leader, is the first indication that Wickremesinghe has accepted the offer. Readers should note that when Wickremesinghe talks of a need to look for chief ministerial candidates for the various provinces, this is not because there was any dearth of UNP politicians in these areas. In fact every province has a UNP leader of the opposition and technically it is this person who should be the UNP’s choice for chief ministerial candidate. But when the UNP leader talks of looking for chief ministerial candidates, what he means is that he is looking also for popular figures like Janaka Perera and Ranjan Ramanayake to don the UNP mantle.

Perera and Ramanayake, two complete outsiders and newcomers to politics, were chosen because of the name recognition that they could bring into the campaign. This may bring some fizz into the UNP in the short term. But by stuffing the party full of such people from outside, the UNP may suffer irreparable long term damage. Some of these celebrity-parachutists may or may not have political skills. Ranjan Ramanayake for instance, was a man who found it difficult to organize an electorate (Katana) and was pulled up before the UNP’s committee overseeing the work of electoral organizers on two occasions during the one year that he was the Katana organizer. How he would fare as the opposition leader of Sabaragamuwa remains to be seen.

In the old days, J.R.Jayewardene was able to make giants out of common clay. When JRJ wanted someone to contest an election, he would not go looking for celebrity parachutists but would promote someone from the area in question. In the early 1980s, when he wanted someone to contest the Anamaduwa by-election, he chose a relatively unknown Asoka Wadigamangawa and garlanded him before the assembled crowds in Anamaduwa. Nearly thirty years later, Wadigamgawa is still a very popular politician in the north western province. Similarly, when JRJ wanted someone to contest the Mulkirigala by-election, he chose Ananda Kularatne, an unknown youth. He is still in parliament, undefeated for nearly three decades. The UNP has lost this art of building regional leaders and they are now completely dependent on well-known amateurs from outside.

The JHU’s ceasefire

At the PAC, Joseph Michael Perera, suggested that some statement should be made at the forthcoming party convention that would inspire hope in the rank and file. Ravi Karunanayake also spoke in favour of such a move. The UNP leader said that there was a resolution that had been adopted in 2006 to the effect that all those UNPers who had been subject to political victimization would be helped by the party regardless of age or status and that this pledge should be reiterated.

When the JVP parliamentary group met in parliament under the chairmanship of Anura Kumara Dissanayake, one of the matters discussed was the statement made by the JHU spokesman Nishantha Warnasinghe to the effect that there would be nothing wrong in going for a ceasefire if the Indian government was willing to accept the responsibility for seeing to its implementation. Parliamentarian Samantha Vidyaratne said that the government was using its minions to put out feelers to see what the public reaction would be to a ceasefire and peace talks with the LTTE. Last week, the JVP’s district leaders met at the party headquarters in Maharagama. Party leader Somawansa Amarasinghe, who was back from Europe, said that the government was preparing to go in for negotiations with the LTTE in the backdrop of the economic crisis that the country faced. He also said that before negotiations are begun, parliament will be dissolved and an election held. He stressed the urgency of reorganizing the party district organizations saying this should be completed before mid-January. Vijitha Herath said that the JVP had stood for the defeat of terrorism and had played a major role in taking this message to the people. He expressed satisfaction about the fact that this had now become the generally accepted thinking among the people.

It was not just the JVP that was harping on the fact that the government now seems ready for a ceasefire. Kumar Rupesinghe of Anti-War Front did as much. He too had latched on to this statement by JHU spokesman Warnasinghe that they were prepared for a ceasefire. But what Warnasinghe has told the lankadissent web site was in effect that the JHU would be agreeable to a ceasefire if India is willing to take the responsibility to disarm the LTTE, make them give up their cry for a separate state and ensure that they come into the democratic mainstream. These were things that the Indians tried to do in the late 1980s and failed.

Speaking to the district leaders of the JVP, Somawansa Amarasinghe said that according to the constitution of the UPFA the 12 parliamentarians who had been sacked from the JVP should be removed from their parliamentary seats by the UPFA but that this has not happened. Parliamentarian Lal Kantha said that once these dissidents are removed those who will make it to parliament are SLFP seniors like Bharatha Lakshman Premachandra in the Colombo district. By their non-removal, what one had to assume that the SLFP leadership now trusted the JVP renegades more than their own people. Parliamentarian Sunil Handunnetti said that once they had been tamed with money and privileges, there is no need to mistrust them. What is interesting is the fact that the JVP was willing to countenance the appointment of SLFPers to the seats held by the JVP dissidents even though they had gone to court over the appointment of Karuna to parliament on the national list seat vacated by the Wasantha Samarasinghe to contest the NCP election.

In JR’s footsteps…

They probably thought that the sacking of Weerawansa and company would be expedited if there was pressure from within the SLFP, to get rid of them and appoint members of the SLFP to parliament. But so far, nobody seems to have taken the bait. Despite these barbs, the breakaway JNP was riding high last week, with the success of their ‘friendship train’ from Matara to Medawachchiya. Those who are now in the JNP were the people assigned by the JVP to whip up patriotism among the people. They have skills in this area and they have been putting them to good use. From Matara to Medawachchiya, the friendship train was greeted by the district leaders of the JNP with large numbers of people who had come to donate items of food and clothing for the refugees fleeing from the LTTE controlled areas.

When cabinet met on Wednesday last week, one of the items discussed was the hedging deal entered into by the Petroleum Corporation. The president observed that hedging had taken place when crude oil went up to $110 but that hedging had not taken place when it went down to 100 or 105. He observed that when hedging, price movements in both directions had to be taken into account. Minister A.H.M.Fowzie observed that had oil prices continued to rise, nobody would be talking about the hedging deal. Be that as it may, the supreme court ruled last Friday that the petroleum corporation should be taken under the control of the president and the chairman removed. Another matter discussed in cabinet last week was that the JVP was against university students learning English. The president stated that if there was no way to teach the younger generation English through the universities. Some other way had to be devised to do that.

The Youth Services Council could be assigned to do the job with the help of the private sector. The president said that about 9,000 students go abroad every year for tertiary education and that a lot of foreign exchange was being expended on this. Some way has to be devised to retain this money in Sri Lanka. Minister Gamini Lokuge, said that a private university could be set up in Sri Lanka and the tendency to go overseas would be reduced. Agreeing with him, the president stated that if a private fee levying university was to be set up, the profits from that could be allocated to the state owned universities and that would protect and foster the free education system as well.

The last person to try and introduce such reforms in the education sector was President J.R.Jayewardene, who even set up a private medical college in the 1980s. Had his efforts succeeded, Sri Lanka would not be losing millions in foreign exchange for education in foreign universities. JRJ was prevented from introducing a parallel private fee-levying tertiary education system in this country because of protests from the JVP. But today, the JVP is in a state of serious decline and this may afford Mahinda Rajapakse a window of opportunity to succeed where JRJ failed.