Politically the Afghan state is at knifes edge. There has been a considerable amount of speculation on the future scenarios that may transpire in Afghanistan and many have been rather pessimistic. The current security, economic social measures draw a bleak picture for the future of Afghanistan. The Taliban has carries out daily attacks on government and coalition forces; the Taliban also controls significant areas of southern provinces. Even in the provinces that the government has a presence, the Taliban is said to exhort significant influence.

The government led by Mr. Karzai is approaching an election year. There has been considerable amount of debate on when the election should be held. While government sources have stated that the election will be held in September next year, some political opponents of the government citing constitutional rules have stated that the election should be held no later than April next year. If the election was to be held in April the government would have very little time do prepare. Furthermore, most of the Pashtun1 areas with deteriorating security conditions prevailing are ill equipped to hold secure and fair elections by April. The President is of Pashtu ethnicity and derives a considerable amount of support from this group and any election devoid of the Pashtu vote would not be deemed legitimate by the populus.

To complicate matters further Afghanistan is expected to face another severe winter, historically after the first snowfall in December most districts would be inaccessible for a period of four months, this would make April elections improbable. The international partners of Afghanistan are also showing concern as to inability of the government and opposition to come to a consensus on the election date. During a recent meeting that I attended at the Royal Norwegian Embassy, a senior member of the Norwegian government expressed his concerns in regards to the election date; he wished that all parties concerned would come to a ‘decision’ on the date as quickly as possible.

President Karzai’s recent comments in regards to negotiating with Mullar Omar2 of the Taliban, which was clearly intended for a domestic audience caused unwarranted ripple effects through international community, with many interpreting his policy as being weak and copulating to pressure exhorted by the Taliban. However, even with weaning domestic and international support for the current administration there seem to be no viable political opponent that will seriously challenge the incumbent president in the upcoming election.

However, after the completion of a resent fact finding mission that was carried out for a provincial assessment of the volatile Ghazni province I believe that’s there is hope for Afghanistan, and here is why- The province of Ghazni is one of thirty-four provinces that make up Afghanistan. The population is made out of all the major ethnic groups and is of great historical and strategic importance to Afghanistan. The province has a vibrant history and had great strategic importance to the current regime. Major transit routes that pass through Ghazni that are lifelines to the northern states including Kabul. Ghazni shares the boarder with seven other provinces and any form instability in province will lead to a ripple effect on the rest of the region.

In what seems to be a constant reminder of the security situation prevailing in the country, Kabul was rocked by a suicide attack on the morning our team left for Ghazni which left four dead and seven injured. The province is a mere 150km from Kabul, but due to the current security situation our journey was made from air. Arriving in Ghazni I had concerns of what I would see and hear during my five-day stay in the province. With almost daily attacks being reported by the media in and around the city I was expecting to find evidence that would further strengthen my own dooms day scenarios on what may become to Afghanistan in the near future.

However, my time and experience in Ghazni leads me to believe of the survivability of Ghazni in the face of the major obstacles the province faces in the immediate future. According to all accounts from both government and non-governmental personnel the major problem that is impeding the development of Ghazni is presence of the Taliban. The last five months have seen considerable amounts of gains made by the government and coalition forces against the Taliban movement in Ghazni. Many believe that removing the threat of the Taliban will to a great degree alleviate the problems affecting the province. The police chief (ANP) affirmed during an interview that a radius of five kilometers from the city center has been secured and the attacks in the city are down. The governor and many other officials while stating that resent operations carried out by both American forces and the Afghan National Army has paid dividend, would freely admit to the fact that some districts of the province are completely under the control of the Taliban.

There have been several other Taliban commanders killed or captured in the preceding period to our visit. On the 27th of November while we were engaging in discussions with the government officials a high level Taliban commander was caught and brought to the compound. Two days later on the 29th of November, Americans Special Forces killed Mullah Youqub a high level Taliban commander and five Taliban members in an ambush and later the same day another commander was apprehended. Though the officials shared no specific of the details of the operations, they acknowledged that the implementation of quick reaction forces that operate with the aid of close air support and these tactics have paid considerable returns. There was a general consensus that the Taliban is on the back foot. However, both the Afghan National Army (ANA) commander and the coalition forces declared that the Taliban is receiving reinforcements from Pakistan and the Helmand province of Afghanistan and it is making the task of securing peace in Ghazni that much harder. The district administrator of Andar (a district of Ghazni), Mr. Abdul Raheem was gunned down at his home on the 1st of December. He has survived 27 suck attempts on his life prior to this very sad incident.

Government officials would admit that the fact that the very high levels of unemployment in the province have led to many of the youth joining the Taliban militancy in return for a stable income with no alternative method of supporting their families. There is also problem of insecurity, due to the inability for the government forces to provide security in certain areas; villagers have found little choice other than to support the Taliban in return for pledges of security in return for their support. There is also known corruption and the ineptitude of the government agencies. The ANP is widely believed to be incapable and ill equipped in dealing with the Taliban.

Why...

The civilians have little faith in the ANP due to the rampant corruption that is present within the police department. While one of the greatest problems faced by the province is the cross boarder infiltration made by the Taliban to replenish in diminishing forces, the current domestic conditions have further exacerbated the problem.

I found the governor to be a capable individual who has the capacity to meet the challenges of the province. The representatives of the American State Department that I met echoed these same sentiments. One of the major impediments that hinder the development process has been the lack of funds for the local government. The governor’s office receives a sum of 1.2 million Afghans or US $ 24,000.00. A sum many would agree is insufficient to carry out the programs that are required for brining people together.

During the meetings with religious clerics in the province the general consensus developed was that they all shared moderate social views and opinions. Contrary to popular western perceptions the clerics preached peaceful coexistence and welcomed development in to the area. The local government believes that with some sacrifice, persistence and more resources the threat to the province by the Taliban can be minimized.