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North Korea retreats, again

The six-party talks aimed at North Korean denuclearisation, which chugged along for most of the year, seem to have finally run out of steam, at least until the new Obama administration comes into office in the United States next month.

The six countries gathered in Beijing since Monday failed to reach an agreement on how to verify Pyongyang’s nuclear program declaration. At the heart of the problem is Pyongyang’s refusal to allow soil and waste samples at its nuclear sites to be taken out of the country for analysis, according to Kim Sook, South Korea’s chief negotiator at the talks. The sampling procedure is crucial in determining how much weapons-grade material North Korea has produced.

North Korea is said to oppose the involvement of International Atomic Energy Agency in the verification process. There is also disagreement on the issue of inspecting undeclared sites. North Korea had protested this part of the proposed verification protocol, claiming that it was an action only a defeated state would accept.

It is not surprising that the six countries involved in the talks could not reach an agreement on the draft proposal circulated by the Chinese, the host of the negotiations. While the United States may be eager to settle the second phase of the nuclear disarmament-for-aid deal before President George W. Bush leaves office, each party in the talks has different interests. Indeed, it would have been a surprise if the six countries had been able to reach an agreement in Beijing in the latest round of talks.

Critics point out that the current debacle was foreseeable because the United States had been too flexible. However, the United States takes the position that Washington and Pyongyang arrived at an "understanding" regarding sampling in October. Christopher Hill traveled to Pyongyang in October where the two sides discussed the verification protocol and the United States took North Korea off the state sponsors of terrorism list. "We had a very precise understanding of what was agreed to, and we had that on paper ourselves," said a US State Department spokesperson.

Given North Korea’s pattern of negotiations, which often involves brinksmanship, it may be some time before we hear of progress being made in the six-party talks. In the meantime, Pyongyang should know that negotiating with the incoming Obama administration is not going to be any easier.

The United States still has leverage against Pyongyang - putting it back on the terrorism list is one option - and president-elect Obama has said he would use "tough and direct diplomacy" consisting of real incentives and pressures to eliminate North Korea’s nuclear weapons program.

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