Philippine President Gloria Arroyo blocks fourth impeachment bid but she faces protests over planned charter change

Last week, Philippine President Gloria Arroyo saw off the fourth impeachment attempt.

Graft scandals and allegations that she cheated during 2004’s election have badly buffeted her unpopular presidency.

And now attempts by administration allies to change the Constitution—seen by the opposition as a ploy to extend her term—have unleashed yet another political storm in the country.

But far from merely clinging to power, the President looks safer than ever.

Since taking over from her ousted predecessor seven years ago, she has secured majority support in the Lower House with the help, it is widely rumoured, of this country’s well-established tradition of dispensing political patronage.

That support has given Arroyo, 61, the numbers to block impeachment complaints from being elevated to a largely hostile Senate for possible trial. On December 2, the House tossed out the latest complaint filed by opposition lawmakers.

Even in the Senate, things are getting better for the leader, who has 18 months left in office: Her ally Juan Ponce Enrile became its president late last month. The veteran politician has "tremendous influence", admitted one opposition senator.

Over the coming year, the President is set to appoint seven new Supreme Court judges—just over half of the Bench. Some worry the court could be pliable.

To be sure, her appointees will have to manage their personal debt to her and maintain the court’s current reputation for impartiality. In no Asian culture is the concept of ‘debt of gratitude’ so deeply ingrained as in the Philippines.

A string of corruption scandals—the most damaging involving alleged kickbacks in a large government telecommunications contract with Chinese firm ZTE—has overshadowed her economic achievements.

Economics professor Winnie Monsod credits Arroyo with "fixing the budget" and presiding over the longest period of sustained economic growth of any Philippine leader since the 1960s.

Arroyo’s personal honesty is generally not in question. But she is criticised for failing to crack down on corruption.

Many Filipinos believe graft has worsened under her watch, an impression reflected in recent global surveys. In July, the World Bank ranked the Philippines as the most corrupt country among Asia’s larger economies, edging out Indonesia.

"Even though her popularity suffers, she is determined, focused and does not waver" on her economic agenda, said her press secretary Jesus Dureza.

Right now, plans by administration allies, including members of Arroyo’s Kampi party, to amend the Constitution appear to be the biggest political threat that this petite but tough leader faces.

Many agree that some provisions need revising. But critics of the latest initiative for charter change suspect that the real agenda is to extend the terms of sitting politicians, including Arroyo’s.

When she steps down—and her officials have tirelessly stressed that she will do so in 2010—Arroyo will lose her protection from prosecution as President. She has no shortage of enemies who may want to reckon with her then.

Any attempt to play fast and loose with the constitution is conceivably the one issue right now that could trigger large demonstrations against Arroyo, supported by the Catholic Church, big business and middle-class Filipinos.

These were the main forces behind the ouster of her predecessor Joseph Estrada.

Even her spiritual adviser, Mike Velarde, who heads the hugely popular El Shaddai religious movement, has threatened to call for street protests if her allies in Congress try to change the Constitution before the next election.

"The timing is so bad because of the economic problems that we have; it’s like shooting ourselves in the foot again," said Philippine Chamber of Commerce and Industry president Edgardo Lacson.

Demonstrations against the initiative are planned in Manila and other cities for later this month. The numbers that they attract will be closely watched.

The political turmoil in Thailand has many Filipinos wondering if opposition to the charter-change initiative at home could escalate into something bigger.

As things stand, it seems unlikely. The politically active middle classes know that ‘people power’ failed to cure their country’s ills. And only elements of the Church and the business community had called on Arroyo to quit in the past.

More crucially, she seems to have the solid backing of the military brass.