As the military closes in on LTTE, the LTTE fan club here and abroad are redoubling their efforts to stop the war, drawing on their bag of tricks - threats to intervene; economic blackmail, continuing brainwashing that military victory is not possible, promoting yet another phoney ceasefire, urging another peace talks charade, and using food aid to get a foot in.

The present GOSL has (so far) stoutly resisted pressure to commit national suicide by stopping a victorious military thrust. To gift the LTTE with a peace lifeline would as proved many times, enable the LTTE to re-arm, regroup and attack with renewed vigour. But more bullying is on the cards. Hell hath no fury like world and regional powers who see their investments in destabilisation going down the drain.

Replay?

So we cannot afford to be complacent, with growls emanating from Delhi and Chennai. There is an uneasy sense of deja vu, with memories of 1987 still rankling. In that year, India intimidated the GOSL into stopping the victorious Vadamaarachchi campaign, invaded our air space, and forced the Indo-Lanka Accord on us. The Accord seriously damaged our sovereignty and territorial integrity, and spawned the Thirteenth Amendment, which haunts us to this day.

Achilles Heel

Above all, the impressive combined forces campaign has not yet destroyed those elusive LTTE light aircraft. According to an AFP report (dateline London, 18/11/08) Jane’s defence analysis group have said the LTTE had constructed two one-kilometre runways between 2002 and 2007, and that one of these was being extended to two kilometres. The battle isn’t over until the LTTE’s aircraft and runways are destroyed.

From the Frying Pan into the Fire

However, another danger looms ever larger, all the more dangerous because, in the euphoria of military success, its significance has not registered in the corridors of power. Indeed it is being heralded with the same mindless fervour that led our leaders to worship false gods such as assorted devolution giveaways, LTTE-worshipping Norwegian meddlers aka "facilitators", the monstrous CFA, and the peace talks charade. The recurring national urge to jump from the frying pan into the fire seems alive and well.

Political Solution

The latest false god is "A Political Solution." It is promoted mainly by much the same people who pressurise us to stop the war (which should tell us something). At first sight a political solution seems plausible and even admirable. A closer look reveals it to be a doosra.

Due Diligence

The mantram is marketed as the wonder drug which would cure all our ills for ever. Let us be street-smart. We are on the verge of militarily crushing the most dangerous terrorist group in the world. Prudence demands that any sequel does not nullify the military success. There is no room for instant preconceived panaceas, no axiomatic solutions made in foreign capitals or think tanks. We have to go through miracle cures with a fine tooth comb.

Remedy Worse than the Disease?

Why, for instance, must there be a political solution? Why not the more general "solution", political, administrative or otherwise? After all, a surgeon would not instantly decide on major surgery even before diagnosing the ailment, which may turn out to have a simple non-surgical remedy. Intensive brainwashing has produced the almost Pavlovian reaction "political solution". But unless the problems - and solutions - are thought through, the remedy may be worse than the disease. An ill-considered political solution could have such momentous repercussions that it could trigger even bigger conflict in the future. We need to look well beyond our noses.

So let us look at some aspects of the Political Solution, and ask some questions.

Solution Presupposes A Problem

A political solution presupposes a political problem. What is the political problem which would be solved by the proposed political solution? Has the problem been defined, after meetings between political parties and other concerned persons? Are there grave obstacles, for instance, to the ability of political parties to function? Is the electoral process flawed? Are people free to vote? Can political parties express their views freely in Parliament and outside? Whatever the political problems are, they must first be defined in order to devise a political solution.

Key Questions

Once the political problems are identified, there remain key questions to be asked. Which problems could be solved administratively within the present constitution? Which would require an amendment within the scope of the present constitution? Which would require a new constitution, and if so would such a new constitution undermine the independence, sovereignty, and territorial integrity of Sri Lanka, and therefore its very existence?

Ethnic Problem?

Or do the promoters of the mantram perhaps have some other problem in mind, which they bundle with a political problem? Like for instance an ethnic problem? If so, it must be unbundled and analysed separately. Foreign countries and media in particular tend to instantly label our plight as an ethnic problem; and Tamil politicians talk of discrimination, grievances and aspirations. When we get down to specifics, though, little has been forthcoming.

Tamil Grievances

Take the TV panel discussion years ago when Mr. Kumar Ponnambalam was in full flow about Tamil grievances, and Mr. S. L. Gunasekera invited him to specify them. "Oh, there are so many," replied Mr. Ponnambalam airily. "Name two," persisted Mr. Gunasekera, "Name two instances where Tamils suffer disabilities which Sinhalese and Muslims do not." Mr. Ponnambalam stuttered awhile before clutching at a straw: "When I write to the Commissioner of Inland Revenue in English, he replies in Sinhala, a language I do not understand." If this was the first grievance that came belatedly to the mind of this eloquent spokesman for the Tamil cause, it becomes imperative to establish what the specific grievances are, instead of blindly assuming a plethora of grievances.

Again, once the specific grievances are identified, the same key questions mentioned above need to be asked - administrative solutions? amendment to present constitution? new constitution? effect on sovereignty and territorial integrity?

Blake on Ethnic Problem and Terrorism

Many would argue that we do not have an ethnic problem, and that what we have is a terrorist insurgency, which as a sovereign state we have to put down. Even US Ambassador Blake is on record as having said "I always remind people who are visiting from USA that Sinhalese, Tamils and Muslims lived together and continue to live peacefully together. Tamils are living in Colombo peacefully with their Sinhalese and Muslim friends. So there is no ethnic problem here. And certainly the government is defending itself against terrorism." [Interview with Shanika Sriyananda published in the Sunday Observer, May 25, 2008].

Aspirations

Mr. Ponnambalam for his part prudently shifted gear and, when next asked to specify grievances, replied loftily that the Tamils had graduated from grievances to aspirations! Convenient, because aspirations can be boundless, not rooted in reality, and even pie in the sky, whereas grievances are specific, verifiable and rectifiable. It would be strange if aspirations are also being bundled into the political solution.

Aspirations = LTTE’s Core Principles = Thimpu = Eelam

Interestingly, the word "aspirations" has crucial connotations in the LTTE lexicon. Prabhakaran’s Heroes Day Speech of November 2004 describes "the political aspirations of the people of Tamil Eelam" as acceptance of the north-east as the historical homeland of the Tamil-speaking people, acceptance of the Tamils as a distinct nation, and acceptance of the Tamils’ right to self-determination, including the right to secede. These aspirations are identical to the LTTE’s "core principles for a lasting peace: the Tamil homeland, the Tamil nation, and the Tamil right to self-determination". (Prabhakaran’s Heroes Day speech of 27/11/07).

So the bland term "aspirations" turns out to be more than an escape route from the task of specifying grievances. It is also identical to the LTTE’s "core principles", which restate their Thimpu demands, which were rightly rejected by the GOSL as being equivalent to Eelam.

Infiltration?

Have the LTTE’s demands been bundled into the "political solution"? Note that the APRC, the body appointed to draw up the solution, stated, in its proposals handed over to the President on 24/1/08 (Daily Mirror of 25/1/08): "The emphasis would be on meeting the aspirations of the Tamil speaking people, especially in the North and East." Is the APRC aware of the connotations, and does it realise where it is taking our leaders?

Indian Factor

With the political solution leaning towards demands, we cannot ignore the most formidable demand, this time an external one. As the fortunes of the LTTE wane, Indian pressure has become increasingly obtrusive, with calls to stop the onslaught on the LTTE, talk with the TNA, talk with the LTTE, produce a political solution, and allow India to provide food to the north - all blatant interference in our affairs, and conduct unbecoming of a country seeking a seat on the Security Council. So, recalling 1987, we must ask whether the fear of direct Indian intervention, as demanded by hotheads in South India, has become a factor in the haste to devise a demand-driven solution when the problems remain undefined.

Demand-Driven, Not Problem-Driven

To summarise the argument so far, the political solution has been formulated without first defining a political or ethnic problem, and is therefore suspect. Instead of being rooted in problems, it has veered towards satisfying demands clothed as "aspirations" of the Tamil speaking people - a term which, in the language of the LTTE, consist of a Tamil nation, Tamil homeland, self-determination, and the right to secede. In short, Eelam. Add to this the Indian factor, and it becomes clear that the so-called "political solution" is not problem-driven but demand-driven.

If this demand-driven "solution" could land us on the road to Eelam, it is clearly time to slam the brakes on.

Outlines of the proposed Political Solution

A look at the views being aired about the content of the political solution reinforce the suspicion that Indian demands have played a major role. For instance, the proposals implicitly take the Thirteenth Amendment of 1987 as their starting point. The Thirteenth was an outcome of the Indo-Lanka Accord of 1987, which India forced on us, and which undermined our sovereignty and territorial integrity. The Accord’s primary purposes were to force the GOSL to concede some key demands of the Tamils, and to also acquiesce in several humiliating restrictions on our sovereignty. India thereby achieved the multiple objectives of assuming the role of saviour of the Tamils, weakening Sri Lanka, and establishing a kind of Indian overlordship over Sri Lanka. A brief recap would be useful in order to evaluate the current airy talk about going further than the Thirteenth.

Thirteenth Amendment

In a nutshell, the Thirteenth established Provincial Councils and provided for two or more of these PCs to be merged (evidently with the Northern, Eastern and possibly Uva Provinces in mind) The Amendment vested PCs’ with considerable administrative, legislative, executive and judicial powers. Subjects of government were allocated under three lists - a Provincial Council List, a Reserved List, and a Concurrent List The Provincial List included matters which could seriously affect security and the economy, such as Police and Public Order, Agriculture, Land Use, Land Settlement, Irrigation.

Fragile Balance

Naturally the question arose whether such a drastic change in governance was in accordance with the Constitution, and the Thirteenth Amendment and the consequent Provincial Councils Bill were referred to the Supreme Court. Five judges ruled that the unitary state remained unaffected, while four held to the contrary and ruled that the changes needed a Referendum.

The red flag was the narrowness of the margin, which suggests that the constitutionality of the Thirteenth is on a knife’s edge, and that the grant of more powers to Provincial Councils would tip the balance away from a unitary state towards federation.

Political Solution Doosra

Here lies the danger. Going further than the Thirteenth is exactly what the "Political solution" is about, judging from media reports. And the content, as demanded by India and the LTTE’s Tamil supporters, is "Thirteenth Amendment Plus." Inexplicably, this objective is hailed even by some GOSL spokesmen.

Delusions

Let us at this point dispose of a) the nonsense talked about having a federal system within an unitary state, which is like claiming that an omelette can be made without breaking eggs; and b) the na"ve hope that safeguard clauses in a new constitution would prevent secession and UDI, which ignores the continuing obsession with Eelam, which would brush aside any legal niceties, when the time is ripe.

Long Ride

This is not all. The promoters of a political solution of Thirteenth plus see it not as the end of the road, but as a new beginning! The non-LTTE Tamil leaders, and their Indian patron, want Thirteenth Plus for a start. The GOSL is obviously being set up for yet another long long ride. Thirteen plus would not be the solution we seek; for the Tamil parties - and India - it would only be the beginning.

Reality Check

It is not hard to fathom why the major Tamil parties - all signatories to the Thimpu demands of Tamil nation, Tamil homeland, and self-determination - are so insistent on Thirteenth plus devolution, and for powers over police and land. Such a package would confer sufficient legal powers on the rulers of the Northern Province to enable them to operate autonomously and to resist central influence - and eventually, if differences arise with the centre, to secede.

One cannot afford to view the outcome of Thirteenth plus with rose-tinted spectacles. There are three factors which could combine to produce an unhappy ending. First, even the Tamil parties currently co-operating with the government may not have got Eelam out of their systems. Second, whoever administers the northern province, the LTTE is likely to be hovering in the background. Third, if it comes to a showdown, will the GOSL have the courage to invoke safeguard clauses, send the army in, and face another war?

Devolution at any time is a delicate operation, because it sets in motion centrifugal forces, and clashes of jurisdiction between the centre and devolved units. To introduce extreme devolution to groups who have once urged secession, and whose organisations still bear the name Eelam, is to invite trouble.

Scenario

The promoters of Thirteenth plus must be asked another question. What problems of the Tamil people (problems, not demands) would be solved by Thirteenth plus, and how? How exactly would Thirteenth plus bring about durable peace? Would LTTE leaders and cadres, for instance, be instantly and miraculously transformed from killers to saints? Would they all renounce Eelam for ever? Would the GOSL have the stomach for another war if things go wrong?

Parallel Track

If the "political solution" is fraught with danger, it makes sense to develop a fresh approach, at least as a parallel track. We have painted ourselves into a corner by concentrating on a political solution, and failing to explore other avenues.

The new approach should focus on integration instead of disintegration. Sri Lanka is a small island, easily governable from the centre, especially with quick transport to any part of the country, and well developed IT facilities to ease administrative functions. It would be the height of absurdity to divide it into nine or ten artificial semi-states purely to appease a section of one community.

Building on Strength

Instead of exaggerating the differences inevitable in any multi-ethnic society, we should build on the priceless advantage we have, i.e., the widely prevalent harmony among all races. To quote Ambassador Blake again, "I always remind people who are visiting from USA that Sinhalese, Tamils and Muslims lived together and continue to live peacefully together. Tamils are living in Colombo peacefully with their Sinhalese and Muslim friends. So there is no ethnic problem here".