It has been a distressing week in Sri Lanka. The war not only dragged on but hundreds of our young men (and perhaps women) have lost their lives. The numbers maimed or injured reportedly runs into thousands. The heavy casualties are from both sides to the conflict. On the economic front, the ordinary people are facing increasing hardships, not just by mismanagement at home but due to a looming global recession caused by mismanagement by those in authority in the world’s largest economic power. There is also a political crisis at home with emerging signs of open disenchantment with the government. Karu Jayasuriya’s cross back to the opposition is just one symptom of this. This political crisis is exacerbated by recent Supreme Court rulings which seem to have struck a chord with the public. These rulings may have blurred the traditional view we have had of a strict separation of legislative, executive and judicial powers. But it is clear that the man (or woman) in the street has welcomed the Supreme Court rulings as not only bringing much needed relief but also as being the only check on growing political authoritarianism.

Sixteen years ago, Queen Elizabeth of England described that year as being annus horribilis, or a year of great misfortune or sorrow. We may justifiably borrow this phrase for the year that is just ending in our country. Certainly, the country as a whole welcomes the successes in the war that has pushed the LTTE against the wall. But that seems to be the only thing to cheer about. The continuing war is taking a very heavy human toll. The total death toll among the security forces, the LTTE cadres and the civilians perhaps runs into thousands for the year. Thousands more have been maimed and injured. As the war nears Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu and Puthukudiyiruppu, the strongholds of the LTTE, the casualties are increasing to alarming levels.

This is why the call by a representative group of five Bishops for a temporary truce over the Christmas/New Year period is a timely one. The country, the soldiers and the LTTE fighting cadres must be war-weary. It is a traumatic to experience the loss of a loved one, a colleague or friend, even if it is for a cause one believes to be right. The security forces have re-captured territory and it will not go back to LTTE control. Eventually, the entire territory will be fall back to state control, with the writ of the Government of Sri Lanka applying throughout the country. A pause now is not going to prevent that happening. It will not only bring some respite to the war-weary but also halt the alarmingly heavy loss of lives. As the Bishops say, ‘Nothing should prevent us from our highest priority of enabling life and safeguarding humanity.’

The Bishops have offered to act as facilitators to bring about a truce. A truce is not a sign of weakness but, as the Bishops say, a sign of political maturity. The Bishops can help to bring about a temporary peace that will halt the rising death toll. But it will require other facilitators to bring about a political settlement that bring permanent peace to our country. There is no doubt the country yearns for peace. The current war has and will continue to weaken the LTTE but it is not going to bring about the peace and unity that the country wants and needs, unless there is a political settlement acceptable to the majority of the three major communities. Sadly, there seems no sign of such a consensus settlement coming up.

The Government now appears intent on embarking on a confrontational course with the Supreme Court by defying the order to reduce petrol prices. At the time of writing this column, the cabinet has postponed a decision to comply with the order until a written copy of the order is received. President seems intent on defying the order: some Ministers support him but some others, sensitive to public opinion, have urged compliance, with one Minister reportedly suggesting that the cabinet even goes beyond the suggested reduction, to take the wind off the sails of the Supreme Court ruling. It will be a sad for the country if this confrontation were to escalate as happened during the J R Jayawardene era. It will have disastrous consequences for good governance.

We trust the personal remarks President Rajapakse is reported to have made against Karu Jayasuriya, when he was still a Cabinet Minister, and Dinesh Gunawardene this week at a cabinet meeting are not true. That would be a reflection of political arrogance that is quite out of character for a President. It could also create a political crisis with unpredictable results. The President must have the maturity to take any ruling of the Supreme Court with calmness. Imputing motives and talks of conspiracies might encourage the faithful cheer leaders but it will not go down well with the ordinary people. They are not going to accept the war against the LTTE as an excuse for every action, when huge sums are being spent on a bloated cabinet, with state ministers, deputy ministers and advisors ad lib, and a support staff for all of them.

Several factors, domestic and external, portend an economic crisis of serious proportions for our country. Our major export commodities are experiencing a slump in prices. The effect of the disastrous hedging agreement will soon be felt. A global recession seems unstoppable and will have a critical effect on our country. All this will mean that the rupee depreciates in value and the cost of imported goods becomes that much dearer. Compounding these is corruption and waste. The people who feel the pinch will be the ordinary person on the street. Major changes will therefore have to be made on the way we manage our economy. Professionalism, not politics, will be needed for this.

That professionalism can only come only about, at least to some extent, if President Rajapakse performs his constitutional duty of implementing the 17th Amendment and appoints the Constitutional Council. The looming economic crises, and perhaps political crises as well, can most effectively be managed only by setting up independent commissions through an independent Constitutional Council. It is politicisation of these commissions that has led to a lack of confidence in these instruments of governance. Even at this late stage, the President will be wise to implement fully the provisions of the 17th Amendment.

If our political leaders have the interests of the country at heart, they need to face reality. We are heading towards a grave economic and political crisis. To overcome or mitigate it, they need to have the wisdom and the courage to change direction. Whistling in the dark by coming up with conspiracy theories and denying the harsh reality will only lead to an even bigger crisis. An opportunity to change course has been presented by the timely appeal of the Bishops. It is an opening which if not taken now is going to be a huge gamble. The country just cannot afford such gambles. The hedging fiasco is a result of an ill considered gamble. The country’s future cannot just be gambled away in this manner. Our political leadership must pause to think if uprooting and traumatizing the lives of so many civilians and the loss of so many young lives justifies the continued pursuit of a strategy, well intentioned but clearly not going according to plan.