In a democracy, can a civil servant publicly threaten to arrest a citizen for making ‘objectionable’ comments to a foreign TV channel? In a democracy should the police swing into action to turn that threat into an actuality? If both these happened in Sri Lanka, where are we headed? Will the gradual undermining of democracy and the enthronement of a family oligarchy be the wages of Lankan reunification, Rajapakse style?

The time is apposite to reflect on the trajectory of the Tamil liberation struggle. When the Tigers destroyed other groups, arrogated all power unto themselves and enthroned themselves as the sole representative of the Tamil people, a majority of Tamils consented - either out of fear or because they were blinded by their just anger towards the Lankan state. In the end, the LTTE used that absolute power to subjugate Tamils, to turn them from second class citizens with less rights into cowed subjects with no rights. The Tigers had no patience with those who were not with them wholeheartedly. They equated the Tamil cause with themselves; since they were locked in battle with the Lankan Forces, any Tamil criticism of their modus operandi was treated as treachery. The LTTE bifurcated Tamil society between those who were pro-Tiger and those who were not, permitting no intermediate spaces. And as the Tigers occupied Tamil polity and society and imposed their intolerant and absolutist creed on the populace, the Eelam dream became a barbaric nightmare for many a Tamil.

The Sinhalese may well find themselves in a similar plight if they allow the Rajapakses to act with impunity in return for containing the LTTE. The more successful the Rajapakse administration is in the war against the LTTE, the greater seems its desire to subvert democracy and operate outside the rule of law. Every such departure from democratic and civilised norms is glossed over, excused or justified as necessary for the final triumph over the Tigers. The assumption is that everything normal – from the rule of law to basic decency – can be suspended until the LTTE is defeated and the country reunified. Anyone who opposes this normalising of the abnormal, this arrogation of infallibility and impunity by the regime is decried as ‘less than patriotic’, a real or a potential traitor to the nationalist cause.

In Lewis Carroll’s Alice in Wonderland, the Queen of Hearts shrieks her notion of justice: "Collar that Dormouse! Behead that Dormouse! Turn that Dormouse out of courts! Suppress him! Pinch him! Off with his whiskers!" In an interview with the ITN, Presidential sibling and Defence Secretary Gotabhaya Rajapakse was asked about the attack on the Sirasa/MTV studio. Railing against ‘terrorists’ who masquerade as media personal he declaimed, "I saw on the CNN news that someone from the Sirasa organisation said there was a claymore mine; that this (attack) was done by the state; (he asked) if Killinochchi can be captured why cannot the investigations succeed. I know the person who spoke. He is a terrorist. He is a person with terrorist connections… At this moment Sirasa is the Voice of Tigers…. As we are winning now they have become desperate. Now the Tigers are losing the war, they are seeking public sympathy… And they want to claim insurance…. That is why they set fire to Sirasa…. Once the investigations have proven (this) I will put in jail this person who spoke to the CNN" (Interview with the ITN – 16.1.2009).

When the Queen of Hearts yells, "Off with their heads", Alice is not alarmed, because Her Majesty is just a playing card. But when the Defence Secretary hurls accusations and threatens to throw people in jail, his comments have gravitas… and consequences. Granting bail to the suspects in the attack on Sirasa/MTV studio, Magistrate Wasantha Jinadasa is said to have opined "that the police had maliciously implicated the Pannipitiya Devram Vehera and Kotte Municipal Council Opposition Leader’s vehicle in the case… (He) observed that this was an attempt to mislead the investigations by diverting attention in some other direction" (Daily Mirror – 20.1.2009). This incident hints at a tendency towards abuse of power with deadly implications for citizens’ rights, rule of law and democratic system.

Today the Rajapakse administration is at the height of its popularity. Such moments of hegemony are the best times to put in place measures necessary to control and contain outbursts of dissent and opposition in the future. According to media reports, the government has asked all citizens to register with the Ministry of Defence – online. The harebrained nature of such a programme in a country where an absolute majority of the populace do not posses/have access to computers should be obvious to any person with a modicum of common sense (maintaining a bogus identity is also easiest online). In any case, according to the President, the war will be over in less than three months; therefore what need is there for such a gargantuan operation which is likely to cost the country dear (of course some lucky entity may make millions by obtaining the contract to process the collected data). According to the Director General of the Media Centre for National Security, "there is no time limit for registering, but if the response from the public is slow, the authorities may have to enforce registration through the law, perhaps even using emergency regulations" (The Sunday Times – 11.1.2009). There is more than whiff of tyranny in this measure, particularly given Defence Secretary Rajapakse’s repeated advocacy of ‘population control measures’.

Though the President and the regime enjoy a significant degree of popularity in the South due to the victories in the Eelam War, they seem to be affected by an ‘anxiety psychosis’ where the media is concerned, especially when it comes to exposes. A plan by Minister Chamal Rajapakse to buy the 250 bedroom five-star Hotel Continental to house the Sri Lanka Ports Authority administration offices was shelved after it was exposed by Mr. Wickramatunga’s paper. Defence Secretary Gotabhaya Rajapakse sought judicial intervention to prevent The Sunday Leader from publishing an obviously damaging story about him (the case is to be taken up on January 30th). Little wonder then, that the Rajapakses are using diverse methods to limit freedom of expression and render the media toothless. An attempt to frighten the private channels into compliance by making the annual reviewing of licenses mandatory was defeated by the Supreme Court. The continued incarceration of senior journalist Tissanayagam on the flimsiest of pretexts (if ‘bringing the government into disrepute’ is a crime, many a minister and a deputy minister should spend a lifetime behind bars) indicate another potential risk for those who would opine against the government. This trend of discouraging dissent, by any means necessary, legal or illegal, violent or non-violent, has given rise to a feeling of vulnerability on the part of the media. In the aftermath of Lasantha Wickramatunga’s killing one anti-government website (Lanka Dissent) has suspended its activities and a couple of senior journalists are said to have left the country.

The President is the Minister of Defence and his brother is the Secretary of Defence. There exists currently between the top political and top military leaders a degree of ideological kinship, a kind of personal affinity that is almost unprecedented. This unusual status quo makes rather implausible any claims of plausible deniability, when crimes such as the killing of Lasantha Wickramatunga happen. In any case, if, as the President claims, there is a conspiracy to discredit the government, it is in the interests of the government to apprehend the conspirators without further ado. Or, are we expected to believe that the President tolerates an all powerful entity, a virtual state within a state, which periodically engages in criminal conspiracies to discredit the government?

Regular, even frequent, elections do not make a democracy. Without the right to dissent, right of expression or free flow of information, a democracy will be bereft of its lifeblood and shorn of all meaning. In such a system, even multiparty elections will become an empty charade, a gimmick by the rulers to gain some legitimacy. In Sri Lanka the regime’s attempts to undermine democracy from within is being facilitated by the presence of a weak and ineffectual opposition. The Ranil Wickremesinghe leadership has been an unmitigated disaster; the UNP cannot become an effective party of opposition, until it gets rid of this albatross. Currently the only real counterweight to the administration is the judiciary. But this impediment too may evaporate if someone more amenable to the regime’s needs and wants is appointed as the successor to the present Chief Justice. In such a context many an anti-democratic measure struck down by the judiciary (such as empowering the President to extend the tenure of top administrators, the three commanders and the IGP indefinitely) can get reactivated. Can democracy survive in a situation, where the President and his coterie control the legislature and the judiciary, the administration and the armed forces? Is Sri Lanka fated to end up with a democratic façade fronting a dynastic rule?

In a self critical piece of seminal importance titled ‘War on Terror was wrong’, Britain’s Foreign Secretary David Miliband moved away from the ‘them vs. us’ premise of George W Bush’s ‘Global War against Terror’, arguing that, "Democracies must respond to terrorism by championing the rule of law, not subordinating it, for it is the cornerstone of the democratic society. We must uphold our commitments to human rights and civil liberties at home and abroad" (The Guardian – 15.1.2009). President Obama made a similar point in his inaugural address: "As for our common defence, we reject as false the choice between our safety and our ideals". And in one of his first actions, the new President ordered the suspension of Guantanamo Bay military tribunals. All of this points to a welcome departure from George W Bush’s Manichean worldview and the birth of a new Zeitgeist based on tolerance, openness and diversity.

The Rajapakse administration has denied reports of increasing civilian casualties in Mulaitivu and the Wanni; the latest is an AFP report of the alleged shelling of a hospital and a village in the ‘safe zone’ by the Lankan army killing 30 civilians. Both the claim and the counter are hard to verify. In any case Colombo should bear in mind that Washington under President Obama is likely to be as unsympathetic as Brussels to a military campaign sans a political process and intolerant of civilian casualties, in Sri Lanka. Incidentally Indian Foreign Secretary Shiv Shankar Menon at the conclusion of his recent visit "urged early movement towards a peacefully negotiated political settlement in the island, including in the north… and emphasised the importance of a political understanding within the framework of a united Sri Lanka....", according to a statement by the Indian High Commission in Colombo (The Hindu – 18.1.2009). Delhi will feel more compelled to impose this line on Colombo as Indian national elections draw near. In other words international pressure on Sri Lanka is likely to intensify in the coming months and a country with a looming foreign exchange crisis cannot afford to tell the world off.