MOSUL, Iraq (AP) - This weekend’s election in Mosul is a showdown for power between Arabs and Kurds, with the outcome likely to influence whether al-Qaida and other Sunni insurgents lose their last major urban foothold in Iraq.

U.S. officials say the insurgency remains a potent force in Mosul, Iraq’s third largest city, in part because the majority Sunni Arab population believes it is poorly served by a local government dominated by Kurds.

Voters have a chance to change that when they select members of ruling provincial councils here and in most of the country in Saturday’s balloting, the first election in three years.

As a sign of the tension here, Iraqi police banned vehicles from Mosul’s streets Friday morning and told residents to stay at home until they are ready to vote the following day. Similar bans were not due to take effect in the rest of the country until late Friday.

The measures in Mosul were imposed the day after gunmen assassinated a local Sunni candidate.

Sunnis largely boycotted the last provincial polls in January 2005, allowing Kurds to gain control of 31 seats on the 41-member council and leaving Sunnis with only a handful. The new council will have only 37 members, including three seats reserved for minorities.

U.S. officials hope a big Sunni Arab turnout will bring them fully into the political process and undermine support for the insurgency.

"I think this will be the first step toward building a democratic state," said Bassem Bello, the Christian mayor of the outlying area of Tel Kaif. "The elections might not be what we aspire to, but they are a first step."

Sunni leaders say their community - some 60 percent of the province’s 2.6 million people - is ready to vote this time around.

"We hope that this time the council is going to be far more representative. We hope that it’s going to be transparent," said Mohammed Shakir Ghanam, the head of the Iraqi Islamic Party and a gubernatorial hopeful.

But Sunni loyalties are split between different parties and no bloc is expected to emerge with a clear majority, raising concerns that subsequent dealmaking and disappointment could lead to more friction.

"Overall we think that just from the political maneuvering on the Kurdish side and the Sunni side that it’s going to ... come out where neither one has a huge balance of power, which is not necessarily good because then they’ll continue to do what they’re doing now and it’ll be a fight for power," said Maj. Karl Neal, a senior intelligence officer in Ninevah province, which includes Mosul.

Provincial councils choose the governor and wield tremendous power at the local level. The current Kurdish-dominated council has been heavily criticized for failing to provide local services or security.

Saturday’s vote will have far-reaching consequences.

The U.S. military is watching it carefully because continued Kurdish-Arab tension in the north poses one of the strongest challenges to ensuring long-lasting peace in Iraq as Shiite-Sunni violence has ebbed and American forces begin to withdraw.

The Kurds are expected to lose seats but are hoping for a strong showing as a measure of support for their claims to several disputed areas in the province. A split vote also could force the fractured Sunni groups to turn to the Kurdish list as allies in a coalition, putting them in a kingmaker position.

"A creeping territorial conflict brews in mixed Kurdish-Arab areas, including part of the capital Mosul. All this has made for a highly volatile mix, awaiting ignition," the International Crisis Group warned in a recent report.

While Baghdad and other cities in Iraq have enjoyed substantial security gains, Mosul still looks like a war zone. The number of attacks in the Tigris River city are down sharply but bombings and assassinations continue to target Iraqi security forces and civilians.

Piles of rubble and garbage lining the sewage-strewn streets and gutted concrete buildings illustrate the widespread complaints about a lack of basic services in the city of 1.6 million people.

Campaign posters strung across streets or plastered on concrete blast walls show pictures of candidates promising to bring security, reconstruction and national reconciliation.

"I hope those elected will take care of the people ... and fulfill their promises," said Dr. Safah Ibrahim al-Dabbagh, the director of the Salaam Hospital. He complained that residents of Mosul receive only about four hours of electricity per day.

Sunni insurgents remain active in the area despite numerous U.S.-Iraqi military operations and strict security measures have been implemented ahead of the vote to prevent attacks, including a vehicle ban and massive security cordons.

Neal, 42, of Fort Huachuca, Ariz., said the military expects al-Qaida in Iraq to try to disrupt the vote, calling Mosul "al-Qaida’s last stand." But he predicted other Sunni insurgent groups would lie low to avoid being seen as opposing the vote that has mainstream support among Sunnis.

Local officials acknowledged tensions were likely to arise after the vote since the losing parties will probably challenge the results. But they expressed confidence that strict security measures - including a vehicle ban and sealed borders - would prevent major attacks.

The Sunnis and the Kurds already have been trading allegations of intimidation and vote buying, signaling that both sides are likely to challenge the results.

Atheel al-Nujaifi, the head of al-Hadba, another major Sunni party, said Kurdish forces providing security in Christian areas outside Mosul were using their influence to ensure voters cast their ballots in their favor.

"Our candidates were not allowed to go and campaign in these places," he claimed.

Kurdish leaders denied the allegations, saying they were only seeking a fair vote.