The unprecedented armed forces’ triumph over the LTTE would make the outcome of yesterday’s elections to Wayamba and Central Provincial Councils a forgone conclusion.

Had the LTTE managed to hold onto Kilinochchi-Paranthan-Elephant Pass stretch on the A9 road thereby denying swift progress on the eastern flank, the government would have been in an extremely difficult wicket at the polls.

The delay in liberation of major LTTE strongholds would have prolonged the war on the Vanni front and given the opposition a chance to meet the political challenge on a level playing field.

The UNP would have challenged the President Mahinda Rajapaksa’s war strategy. The JVP, too, would have echoed the main opposition party. They would have easily torpedoed the president-led propaganda campaign entirely based on the war against LTTE terror. The government would have found itself mired in both economic and war fronts. But thanks to a superlative performance by armed forces and police spearheaded by the army, the president had the opportunity to transform the otherwise insignificant poll to a referendum on the war.

Although the opposition and a section of the international community had failed to realize it, Sri Lanka’s primary focus is on civilians reaching the government held area and relief measures. Against this background, LTTE suicide attacks on escaping civilians would make matters worse for the Tigers.

The rapidity of the army advance on the eastern flank was emphasized by army chief, Lt. General Sarath Fonseka, recently at a reception held for a group of journalists. He said that when the war erupted he had needed about 50 map sheets to plan action but now he required only one.

The president is now set to reiterate that the polls victory had been an endorsement of his war against terrorism. The relatively peaceful poll is a pointer to the ruling party candidates’ confidence in taking the two provinces. Although the National Polls Observation Centre sponsored by the government and the Centre for Monitoring Election Violence (CMEV) sharply differed on the number of complaints, it would be pertinent to point out that 14 complaints had been made by UPFA candidates against their colleagues.

The CMEV said that of the 110 complaints received by its staff, the UPFA and the UNP had lodged a total of 15 complaints against their colleagues. The CMEV had received 56 complaints against the UPFA by the UNP (36) and JVP (20). Considering the fact that five districts were involved in yesterday’s poll, 56 complaints seem to be the lowest at any election over the past two decades.

The Opposition had found itself in a difficult position due to no fault of theirs. For UNP leadership struggling to strike back at an increasingly aggressive government, another political debacle couldn’t have come at a worse time as SLFP strategists ponder early general elections.

Had the armed forces failed in their ambitious attempt to decapitate the LTTE, the UNP would have been in a strong position, particularly in the Central Province with S. B. Dissanayake going on an all out offensive against what he repeatedly called corrupt and ineffective provincial administration. Dissanayake’s campaign would have made waves had the media focus been on issues other than the war. For the first in political history the opposition had been denied the opportunity to exploit an incumbent government’s failure to meet the LTTE military challenge. With the LTTE experiencing its worst crisis as the army gradually takes over approximately 140 square kilometre area under Tiger control, the Rajapaksa administration would seek to undermine the opposition.

A flurry of battle-field success on the eastern flank beginning with the liberation of Paranthan, Kilinochchi and Elephant Pass in January this year had given a turbo boost to the ruling coalition. The bottom line is that war victories had pushed a range of other contentious issues out of media limelight with the government propagandists cleverly manipulating the military campaign now in its last stage to the advantage of the ruling coalition.

PC polls candidates had deceived the masses by putting up posters and banners hailing armed forces victories with the focus on the liberation of Pooneryn, Kilinochchi, Elephant Pass and Mullaitivu. The abuse of war victories gained at a heavy price had been scorned by the UNP and the JVP. Had the UNP been in power, it would have done exactly the same.

A deteriorating economy, crippling consequence of the world economic slow-down, waste, corruption, irregularities involving the public and private sector, attacks on the media and an unprecedented rift between the political leadership and the judiciary had failed to receive the public attention they deserve due to high profile war. In fact, successive battlefield victories on the eastern flank had helped the political establishment to sweep critical issues under the carpet.

The recent collapse of the Golden Key Credit Card Company of Lalith Kotelawala close on the heels of the mega frauds committed by Sakvithi Ranasinghe and Daduvam Mudalali would have caused severe problems in the absence of an extensively covered successful military campaign. Even the most outspoken critics of the government, whether they were in public life or ordinary people, had been mesmerized by the daily coverage of the battlefield progress with television news bulletins giving priority to the war against terror.

The absence of Chief Justice Sarath Nanda Silva at the 61 Independence Day celebrations didn’t at least prompt the UNP and JVP to at least issue a statement. They could have easily raised an issue over the CJ’s absence given that recent landmark judgments had placed the administration in a difficult position.

The opposition seemed to have been somewhat immobilized due to the unparalleled success on the war front against the backdrop of growing international pressure. JVP leaders who repeatedly asserted that the president would ultimately give into t Indian pressure and that of the Tokyo Co-Chairs namely the US, EU, Norway and Japan had ended up with egg on their faces.

The government has fiercely resisted international attempts to interfere with the ongoing operation and nothing could be as clear as the rejection of the British move to appointment a Special Envoy. Foreign Minister Rohitha Bogollagama, in a seven point memorandum to the Cabinet had called for an outright rejection of the British move.

The Sunday Island learns that Bogollagama told the Cabinet that the British High Commissioner Dr. Peter Hayes informed him that State Secretary David Miliband alluded the possibility of such an appointment by Prime Minister Gordon Brown, when he (Miliband) phoned the President two weeks ago. The President had acknowledged that Sri Lanka couldn’t stop the appointment which he asserted wouldn’t help Sri Lanka.

The decision to call fresh elections to the Western Provincial Council was part the government strategy to weaken the Opposition ahead of early general elections. The government is confident that by the time nominations are called for the WPC, the LTTE would have lost its conventional military capability entirely. Even if the top LTTE leadership had managed to go underground for the time being, the group wouldn’t have an area under its control. For the LTTE that would mean it wouldn’t have direct control over a large segment of Tamil speaking people in the northern and eastern provinces.

The LTTE’s loss would be the government’s gain. The liberation of both provinces would give a further boost to the government ahead of forthcoming WPC polls. The sure success at the WPC polls would strengthen the call for fresh general elections. A poor showing at the just concluded PC polls and the forthcoming elections to the WPC would renew leadership crisis in the UNP. UNP leader Ranil Wickremesinghe who had thwarted several attempts to replace him after defeat of his government in April 2004 would face another bout in the ring.

The Sunday Island learns that as part of the Rajapaksas strategy, the SLFP would insist that all its political partners would contest on the UPFA ticket as in the case of provincial council polls. The breakaway LTTE faction led by Karuna contested the first elections to the Eastern Provincial Council on the UPFA ticket in keeping with this plan. This would be of critical importance to thwart the opposition from exploiting any unforeseen crisis within government ranks.

In keeping with this strategy, the Wimal Weerawansa-led Jathika Nidahas Peramina contested yesterday’s poll on the UPFA ticket. The bottom line is that by having its partners to contest on the government ticket, the SLFP would gradually increase its influence over coalition affairs. The Weerawansa group had ten candidates at the Wayamba and Central PC polls. Although the number of slots given to the recently recognized party seemed a bit too much against the backdrop of heavy lobbying for nominations, it was believed to be influenced by the urgent need to further weaken the JVP.

The bottom line is that the JVP would find itself reduced to just a few members in provincial councils ahead of the general elections. Despite the JVP leadership showing a brave face in the face of mounting pressure in the run up to yesterday’s poll, the result would emphasize the Marxist party’s dilemma. If the Wimal Weerawansa group manages to win more seats in the Wayamba and the Central Province than the JVP proper, the incumbent JVP leadership would be in serious trouble.

As the action on the northern front gradually transform from conventional battles to counter insurgency, the government would go ahead with its political project. With early general elections being discussed in political circles, SLFP strategist Basil Rajapaksa is likely to take over the Gampaha District.

The recent call by the veteran Gampaha District politician and Fisheries Minister Felix Perera didn’t surprise political parties. Basil who entered Parliament through the UPFA National List is expected take over the district once led by Mrs. Chandrika Kumaratunga, the late Anura Bandaranaike and the late Jeyaraj Fernandopulle.

The Sunday Island raised this issue with Basil Rajapaksa who asserted that the final decision would be with the President. He said that he would contest the next general elections. The outspoken politician asserted that his immediate task would be to ensure the smooth implementation of a cohesive plan to re-settle civilians displaced in the north. Expressing confidence in an outright armed forces triumph over the LTTE shortly, he asserted that almost 80 per cent of the displaced could be re-settled at their original places of living.

The opposition including the Tamil National Alliance (TNA) had failed to realize the changing political landscape. The government would be the main beneficiary of the proposed resettlement programme funded together with the international community. But nothing could be as advantageous as India’s readiness to play a pivotal role in the reconstruction and rehabilitation of the Northern Province. This would give an enormous advantage to the incumbent government at the next general election. The sweeteners would come in the form of assistance provided to the displaced and those returning to their homes.

Unlike in the Eastern Province where the UPFA joined hands with the Karuna faction, the government is unlikely to promote anyone associated with the Vanni leadership of the LTTE. The recent proscription of the LTTE was evidence that the LTTE leaders werenwelcome and the leadership required in the north would be the responsibility of the likes of EPDP leader Douglas Devananda and veteran politician V. Anandasangaree.

Although the TULF leader wouldn’t accept the methods of Devananda, they would play a pivotal role in the government strategy. The forthcoming general election would be the first countrywide election held without the intimidating presence of the LTTE. Having cluster polling booths in areas dominated by the government for voters living in LTTE-held territory would be a thing of the past. The LTTE wouldn’t have the wherewithal at least to disrupt the countrywide election not even in the northern and eastern province.

The next general election would definitely change the political landscape of the country. Due to lack of foresight on the part of the opposition, the government would shrewdly exploit contentious issues to its advantage. A case in point is the certain return of the Muslims driven out of the Northern Province during President Ranasinghe Premadasa’s tenure to their old homes. How would it affect the Sri Lanka Muslim Congress (SLMC) which went to the extent of reaching an agreement with the LTTE on the sidelines of the Norwegian arranged CFA in February 2002? Would they switch allegiance to the government for driving the Tigers out of their land? What would be the impact on the Eastern Province Muslims? And most importantly who would receive the SLFP’s blessings as the new Muslim leadership in the Jaffna peninsula and the Vanni?

The war is coming to an end sooner than many believed possible. That would pave the way for the government pushing for greater power both in and outside parliament. Once the president bags the LTTE, he would zero-in-on the opposition. The severity of developing crisis in the opposition may cause fresh round of desertions ahead of the forthcoming general elections. Given the greed for perks and privileges, carrots will work their magic as demonstrated by recent crossovers both in and out of parliament.