Victory breeds hatred, the defeated live in pain, happily the calm live, having set victory and defeat aside." Dhammapada .

When the plane landed in Colombo, it presented a peaceful and tranquil feeling, together with calm and silence as compared to the noise and din of Delhi. Travelling from the Bandaranaike airport, there were very few vehicles at that hour of the night. There were police barricades at regular intervals doing routine checks and one got a feeling that something was amiss. Security had been tightened, perhaps in view of the Independence Day celebrations. One could not make out that a war was taking place from a peaceful and tranquil Colombo. The LTTE is making its last ditch after three decades for the cause of Tamil independence.

The war is in its last stages, where a well equipped and trained Sri Lankan army is pitched against a guerrilla force. Due to a misconceived calculation of its strength and expecting support from well wishers, the LTTE resorted to a conventional war with the Sri Lankan army. 

The LTTE had acquired heavy weapons, a few planes and had the previous experience of fighting with Sri Lanka troops and IPKF. In the past, at the crucial breakthrough stage an untimely ceasefire nullified all what the armies had achieved. The LTTE used the ceasefire as a breathing space to regroup and be ready to fight against the conventional armies with vigour and grit. This time, however, it did not happen. A determined President Rajapakse and well trained Sri Lankan army relentlessly pursued their objective. That is fighting till the end to solve this outstanding problem. This tactic has upset the calculations of the LTTE. Furthermore, after the attack on 9/11 and more recently in Mumbai, world opinion has changed dramatically toward terrorist movements.

Unlike in the past, the LTTE are finding it difficult now to muster any international support. India has taken a neutral role. During my visit, I found a large number of people appreciating the stand India has taken, in spite of internal, political compulsions in Tamil Nadu and forth coming elections, where the Tamil issue can be made to influence the voters.

With superior weapons, air superiority and naval power, the Sri Lankan army will eventually prevail over the LTTE in conventional war.

Nevertheless, the LTTE will revert back to their early strategy hit and run, which is guerrilla warfare, and move in to the jungles. The last phase of the battle will result in more casualties on both sides. The war will move from conventional warfare to fighting from bunker to bunker and hand to hand. The use of multiple rocket launchers and heavy artillery by the Sri Lankan army will result in large scale collateral damage to civilians.

The battle zone is now approximately 20 by 15 kms. Large number of civilians are said to be trapped. The guesstimates vary from 50,000 to 200,000.  In their last ditch to escape to their hideouts, LTTE is using human shields to retreat.

This will further result in casualties to civilians. This is cause for concern for India. LTTE have been clever hiding their weapons, aircrafts, and other heavy weapons. They are past masters in dismantling weapons and reassembling.

Knowing the strategy of LTTE and other insurgents groups, weapons are hidden in previously selected and prepared caches, and are used when the hit and run phase begins after losing the conventional war. This is also a matter of deep concern as violence will now take a form of terrorist strike. Large scale weapons and ammunition are still with the LTTE. 

In Kandy, I met a Lt Colonel of Sri Lankan army who told me that large number of LTTE cadres, approximately fifteen hundred, has mingled with the civilians.

This is a cause of grave concern as those who have mingled with the civilians will regroup in to small groups and modules. They will resort to violent acts after the war is over. Identification of these persons will be a difficult task.

The future after the war has ended

The North and the East of Sri Lanka has been left out of mainstream development and progress for the last thirty years. Despite claims of the Sri Lankan Government, no after war strategy seems to have been worked out. After fighting the Government for such a long time the Tamils see that they are losing the war. Therefore, it will require a soothing touch and reassurance from the Sri Lankan Government to win over the Tamils.

In wars where you are fighting with your own people there is no enemy only the misled brethren who resort to the use of force to resolve their demands.

In such a situation, there is no victor and no vanquished. But what I saw on the streets and roads of Sri Lanka it belies my conviction.

There were, all over, big posters depicting Sri Lankan soldiers with weapons and commandoes in their outfits proclaiming victory over LTTE. A war hysteria is being built up which will effect the reconciliation process and will not reassure the Tamils. What is needed is keeping things low key and not making the Tamils feel defeated and humiliated. Some times political compulsions overrule the sane actions. At the Provincial elections which are taking place, the main issue projected is victory over the LTTE, and not the development issues. Development issues are of prime importance.

In the absence of any post war strategy of rehabilitation, a grim situation seems to be in the waiting. The government appears to be planning a political solution in the form of the thirteenth amendment and calling for the provincial elections. The establishment of safe villages for the Tamils displaced due to war and under control of Army will be counterproductive because it will further alienate the Tamil population.

There is a vacuum in the leadership in the North. LTTE did not encourage leadership at grassroots to emerge. The leadership was the domain of LTTE or its sponsored leaders. Now suddenly LTTE is eclipsed and there are no leaders with whom the Sri Lankan Government can talk except those who earlier had defected and now do not command respect from the large number of Tamils in the North.

Where is Prabhakaran? This question gives rise to many speculations and rumours. Some feel that he is no more and some feel he has escaped to Malaysia or Thailand. In any case, in the absence of credible proof myths are kept alive and, unfortunately, movements will re-emerge after some time to rally under their brand name and fight.

What is needed for the lasting peace is speedy reconstruction and development work in the North and the East.

Since 1981, no census has been conducted and no record and data of this area is available to plan the aid, relief and rehabilitation programmes. To win over the civilian population they themselves have to be involved in the process of reconstruction. The involvement has to be from the planning stage till the execution and completion of the work.

 For this to happen, village committees will have to be formed on the pattern of GramSwarajaya and entrusted with the task of development. Stakeholders should be empowered to take on this task. Some credible and committed NGOs will have to come forward who have faith in GramSwarajaya and empowerment of people like the Mahathma Gandhi Center in Colombo, which commands respect and has credibility and is committed to the Gandhian model of development.

When the stakeholders are involved in the process of development the leaders emerge from grassroots.

Constitution of South Asia development Fund by India will go a long way in assuaging the hurt feelings of the Tamils and also speed up the process of reconstruction. We have also seen that when aid pours into a country in large amounts, unscrupulous persons and institutions crop up. To guard against this the donor countries can lay down strict monitoring and evaluation checks and maintain transparency.

 When stakeholders are involved in the process of development the leaders emerge from grassroots. This process will ensure true representatives of the people to come forward. Until such time this is done, other political measures taken may not bring in the desired results and ensure lasting peace.

 What may happen and feared is that LTTE sponsored leaders will grab power and will try to sabotage the peace process.

13th amendment was the constitutional outcome of the Indo-Lanka accord following India’s intervention in 1987. The Accord acknowledges the multi ethnic lingual plural society of Sri Lanka. It also recognizes Northern and Eastern provinces as an area inhabited by Tamil speaking persons. This, however, may not solve the problems and may not be conducive to the establishment of peace at this juncture.

What is needed after winning the battle is to win the war of hearts, war on poverty, war on the reconstruction and most importantly war to restore the power to the people at grassroots and to make them active participants in this process of development.

Militarily Sri Lanka has succeeded, now it is for them to sort out their problems.  To ensure the lasting peace the Sinhalese have to work with the Tamils and make them feel reassured and secure as equal citizens.