A senior journalist recently explained to me in Colombo, that in the same manner that the JVP was militarily crushed and eliminated, the LTTE also could be eliminated and that peace could finally be achieved.

I had serious doubts about this assessment as one which fails to appreciate the determination and the organizational structure of the LTTE, the world most ruthless and perhaps the most ambitious terrorist organization.

The recent events targeting the Sri Lankan cricket team in Pakistan confirms that the LTTE will not go down the same way as the JVP. The LTTE has a significant presence in the dark underworld dealing in arms smuggling, the transportation of narcotics and even lucrative street crime such as credit card fraud, human smuggling, fake passports, extortion etc.

This takes the form of a multinational corporation with a presence in many continents with links to other similar groups of terrorists, war lords, criminal gangs and general profiteers. The LTTE has offices in over 26 countries, often named as the Tamil Coordinating Committee (TCC).

The global crackdown that has taken place since 9/11 has severely constrained the operational space available to these groups, but they have not been comprehensively snuffed out. For most of the last century, when the Sri Lankan governments cracked down on Tamil militancy, they gained refuge in South India. They only had the South Indian state of Tamil Nadu and indirectly India as their ally.

In the 21st century as the Rajapakse administration cracks down on Tamil militancy, they have the whole wide world to seek and gain refuge, as they now have a global presence, with offices and supporters in every continent.

The LTTE have links with most of the major terrorist and criminal organizations in the world. They have exchanged information, knowledge, supplied each other arms and provided logistical and operational training to each other over the last 25 years, establishing strong and reliable contacts.

A few years ago, a European friend in the Human Rights field in London informed me that colleagues in Lebanon were aware of the presence of LTTE cadres in Lebanon, who were providing training to Middle Eastern terrorist groups. This was not surprising as it was in Lebanon where Tamil militants initially obtained their training and a contact of mine in London is a first batch Tamil militant.

It has gone full circle now, with the LTTE training these Jihadist groups and exchanging terrorist know how and suicide technology. Representatives of these groups including the PKK used to be present at LTTE events in London, Canada and Europe speaking in support of the LTTE. I visited these LTTE events and reported on these to The Island.

In the last decade as Britain followed the United States in listing the LTTE as a terrorist organization, some British experts in the law enforcement field cautioned that listing them as terrorists will drive them underground and will result in being more difficult to monitor their activities. This has now taken place. The LTTE and other terrorist groups are constantly responding to new law enforcement initiatives and the law enforcers are in a permanent mode of playing catch up with the latest innovations and deceptions of terrorist outfits.

The Sri Lankan state too has evolved. Unlike previous administrations, the Rajapakse administration takes an extremely ruthless and aggressive stand in its bold bid to combat terrorism. It could be argued that the Rajapakse administration has moved Sri Lanka’s response to terrorism, more closer to that found in the State of Israel, and it has in many ways been more successful than Israel.

The Palestinians have the Interim Self Governing Authority (ISGA) and the LTTE demanded such an authority, which was the stumbling block of the Wickremesinghe peace initiative. The Rajapakse administration has rolled the carpet back and demolished any prospect of such an authority ever being established and in doing so demolished the minority aspirations of creating their own political space in Sri Lanka.

Those among the Sinhalese community who view the Rajapakse initiative as bringing closure to Sri Lanka’s long conflict will be disappointed as new developments unravel. In time they will realize that their dream of settling this Sri Lankan conflict with military force is as illusive as those of the Ilavars who thought that they could gain Tamil Eelam with violence and terrorism.

If Rajapakse and his supporters think that the LTTE are going to lay down their arms and kneel before them, they are sadly mistaken. Such dreams highlight the ignorance of Sinhala nationalism in not being fully appraised of the mind set, quality and mettle of the enemy that they face.

In time, the Sinhalese nationalists will realize that the pronouncements of the international community that this conflict cannot be settled with violence alone will be proved to be accurate. These pronouncements are based on advice of their respective intelligence agencies and centers of excellence studying the activities of the new evolving LTTE.

At present the LTTE is already restructuring itself to continue the fight. The appointment of Kumaran Pathmanathan (KP) as their main point of contact is the only visible public signal of the ongoing evolution of the LTTE.  KP has a formidable network among the worldwide criminal and terrorist fraternity. Carrying several passports he is known to travel around the world settling up deals in arms procurement, transportation of narcotics and arms in their ships, directing their money laundering operations, etc. All this is only possible with extensive links with the criminal fraternity and the terrorist underworld.

Other than the appointment of KP, a bulk of the LTTE’s world wide operation has now gone underground, and is as difficult to track and monitor as finding Osama Bin Laden. The attack in Pakistan is an indicator as where all this is heading.

If in the last century the LTTE relied on their allies in Tamil Nadu to do their bidding, today, they have a far wider network that is at their disposal. The incident in Pakistan is of great significance. Up to the Pakistan incident, the Sri Lankan state only faced terrorism from Sri Lankan citizens. The incident in Pakistan has changed all this, as from now on the threat has gone global. Up to now, the delivery of terrorism against the Sri Lankan state and Sri Lankan citizens was from other Sri Lankans, mainly of Tamil decent. This enabled intelligence agencies and law enforcement agencies to concentrate their resources on a particular profile. No more.  

From the incident in Pakistan, the threat delivery against the Sri Lankan state and its citizens could come from anywhere, from any nationality.

The Rajapakse establishment which has tried to defend Colombo by registering Tamils, may also have to contemplate registering Muslims as well, as the Pakistani incident has highlighted that Pakistani Islamic mujahedeen were used to attack the Sri Lankan cricket team. They could also be used to attack Colombo.

The LTTE has been trying and will go on trying to bait the Muslims in Sri Lanka who are also Tamil speaking into the conflict. An unfortunate by product of Rajapakse’s war has been that all the wrong signals has been sent out, resulting in whipping up Sinhala tribalism/racism, mistaken for Sri Lankan patriotism. The government has struggled to correct it, but has failed miserably. The result is the lighting of a dangerous fuse, which the LTTE will exploit.

The fuse that has been lit, is a deadly perception among the minorities that the demise of the LTTE and rise of Sinhala nationalism, signals the accentuation of Sinhala Buddhist hegemony over the minorities. The victory in the battlefield is interpreted as a Sinhala tribal victory over a lesser people.

This is a perception that very few Sinhalese understand and as a result they fail to recognize the inherent dangers and that they have quite unknowingly lit a fuse that is open to exploitation by the LTTE and the forces of destabilization and chaos.

Most Sinhalese are in a celebrative mood as the army rolls towards the beach. They are blissfully unaware of the actual casualties in the field or the fuse that is burning away under their feet. Perhaps the incident in Pakistan may help bring them to their senses, but it is doubtful.

Too many Sinhalese think that the minorities have nothing to complain about and that they are equal. They think that the Muslims are wealthy and well off, just like the perception in 1983 that the Tamils were wealthy and well off. These Sinhalese are living in Cuckoo land and unfortunately they are the majority.