The incident that received the most attention last week was the attack on the Sri Lankan cricket team in Lahore. Pakistan has been a good friend to Sri Lanka and what we should be doing is sympathizing with them in these trying times and at the same time hugging ourselves with joy at having been able to avoid a similar fate as a nation. The Lahore attack highlights the fact that Pakistan is slowly but surely slipping into anarchy with three major incidents beginning with the assassination of Benazir Bhutto, followed by the Mumbai attack and now this attack on the Sri Lankan cricket team all being pointers in that direction. Islamic extremists are succeeding in Pakistan as they are in Afghanistan.

In a way there is nothing surprising in the processes taking place in Pakistan given the fact that they were at the centre of exporting Islamic terror to Soviet controlled Afghanistan and later sponsoring the fundamentalist government of Afghanistan from where terror spread all over the world. In doing so, the Pakistani State created a monster over which it has now lost control. In these circumstances, one can only sympathize with the Pakistani English speaking middle classes, people like us, with the same attitudes and aspirations, as the unwashed barbarians clamour outside the gates. We in Sri Lanka are fortunate. We have had successive governments, led both by the UNP and the SLFP that have dealt firmly with terrorism and extremism and safeguarded democracy. 

Courageous governments

 In 1971 the JVP insurgency did not last more than a few months, quelled resolutely by the Sirima Bandaranaike government. Their second insurrection lasted longer under the UNP regimes of J.R.Jayewardene and R.Premadasa; but that too was finally quelled. Now the Rajapakse regime is dealing in a similar manner with an even more difficult customer - the LTTE. We all have to count our blessings, and among the things that we are blessed with is the capacity to throw up leaders who have the courage to do what it takes to deal with terrorist threats. This is all the more remarkable in a democracy. Successive Sri Lankan governments have shown a tendency to do whatever it takes, even if it means NOT playing by the Queensbury rules, to win wars against terror. Abductions, gangland style executions, unlawful arrest – all that has been used by Sri Lankan governments to deal with terrorism and that shows their resolve and commitment to quell terror if necessary by even using the methods of the very terrorists they were fighting.

If one takes the 1987-89 JVP insurrection, terrorist suspects were routinely killed and the bodies burnt on tyre pyres on the roads for all to see – something that has not happened even in Somalia. When the JVP tried to organize massive demonstrations, using civilians as a human shield, the government used helicopter gun ships to fire upon the rear or the middle of the processions where the JVP activists would have been concentrated. So the strategy of using human shields was unsuccessful. In hindsight, the lengths that the then UNP government was prepared to go to fight terrorism was remarkable. Will the Pakistani government have the courage to form death squads, kill suspected Islamic extremists by the thousands and burn the bodies openly on the roads? Unlikely!

The UNP government of the late eighties was not interested in popularity ratings. They girded their loins and got down to business. It is thanks to the efforts of our governments, past and present, who have withstood the pressure from overseas with the western governments too concerned about the human rights of terrorists and less about those of their victims, and done what was needed to defeat terrorism that we have a stable country today with the terrorists in headlong retreat. We Sri Lankan can exult that thanks to both the UNP and the SLFP, this country despite the challenges it faced, including having to deal with the world’s deadliest terrorist outfit, has not become an Iraq, Afghanistan, or even a Pakistan. India too is lucky that Sri Lanka is getting on top of the LTTE problem. Had Sri Lanka dissolved into anarchy under the onslaught of the LTTE, the Indian government would have been faced with a Pakistan like situation on its southern flank as well with anarchy spreading into Tamil Nadu.

 A ‘managing leader’

 Last week, UNP General Secretary Tissa Attanayake came upon 12 UNP parliamentarians discussing how to oust party leader Ranil Wickremesinghe in one of the committee rooms in parliament. Attanayake had hastily tried to excuse himself when the rebels had called him in and told him that they were planning to ask the leader to step down. They took the opportunity to tell the party general secretary that they wanted a meeting of the UNP parliamentary group summoned and that a secret vote should be taken on whether the leader should remain in office or not. If the majority of the parliamentary group decides in favour of retaining the leader, the rebels would bow their heads to the decision and call off the rebellion. This latest UNP rebellion is following the now well established pattern. The last time there was a rebellion in the UNP following the defeat at the Eastern Province, the NCP and Sabaragamuwa elections, a majority within the working committee decided to retain Wickremesinghe as the leader and the rebellion fizzled out.

Last week the UNP leader Ranil Wickremesinghe had been talking to parliamentarians on an individual basis and of those who met him, Ranjith Aluwihare had told the party leader that the people of the country expect some radical change in the party and that promoting Sajith Premadasa to some prominent position in the party would meet this need to a large extent. Another parliamentarian that Wickremesinghe had met was M.H.A. Haleem of Kandy. He too had told Wickremesinghe that Sajith Premadasa should be given a prominent position in the party. It is significant that Haleem, who is a Kandy district MP, did not ask for S.B.Dissanayake to be given a prominent position in the party. Wickremesinghe had told Haleem that it was not Sajith but Ravi Karunanyake who is playing the role of R.Premadasa in parliament and that he intends allowing Sirikotha, to be handled by Karu Jayasuriya. Wickremesinghe seems to be slipping into the role of a ‘managing’ leader rather than a ‘leading’ leader.

At the central and Wayamba elections, he did not join the campaign until the last ten days. For the forthcoming Western Province elections he has appointed a committee led by Karu Jayasuriya to head the campaign. Wickremesinghe was present on Friday at an event organized by Mohamed Muzzamil, No. 1 on the UNP list, at his Kollupitiya election office where a few dozen supporters were present.

At the stormy parliamentary group meeting held the week before last, Wickremesinghe offered to keep away from the campaign if the parliamentarians were of the opinion that his appearance on the stage would be a liability. If that comes to pass, he will cease to be a leading leader and become a managing leader who will send forth party men to do battle with the UPFA and then evaluate performance. As we said in last week’s column, in relation to the exchange of words he had with Sajith Premadasa, there is even the possibility that he would field some other candidate at the next presidential elections while he remains the leader.

Last week, there was a meeting of the UNP trade union the JSS in the working committee room at Sirikotha. Karu Jayasuriya, the party chairman Gamini Jayawickreme Perera, Johnston Fernando, Ranjith Madduma Bandara and others associated with the UNP trade union set up were present. At this meeting many activists of the trade unions were scathing in their comments on the party leadership. They had said that they could not go to the houses of party supporters without having to listen to diatribes against the party leadership and that there was a serious erosion of support for the party at the grassroots level. They found fault with all and sundry saying that members of trade unions could get nothing done even when the UNP was in power and that the rank and file members are fed up. They said the party was losing consistently and that something had to be done about it. The notable feature is that the wrath of the trade union activists was directed at the entire leadership of the UNP and not just Ranil Wickremesinghe. One activist had pitched into Tissa Attanayake saying that the mahalekamthuma was good at juggling numbers, but that after the votes are counted at every election, the party has lost.

One trade union activist, Lal Perera by name, had stood up and spoken in defense of Wickremesinghe. He had been shouted down by the others present with one activist reminding Perera that it was only last week that he himself had said that there would be no salvation for the UNP so long as Wickremesinghe was the party leader! Obviously, pressure is building up in the UNP and the chances are that when party activists are unable to remove the leader and are too afraid to criticize the leader openly, they may vent their fury on the second tier leadership. Signs of this are already emerging. After the defeat of 2004, the then party general secretary Senarath Kapukotuwa was jeered at by party activists, prompting his resignation.

 Karu flayed

 At last week’s stormy JSS meeting, the trade union activists did not spare Karu Jayasuriya either. One of them stood up and told Jayasuriya, "You left with seventeen and came back alone without even your private secretary". And more to that effect. Poor Karu is not allowed to forget that he was once a renegade. During the Wayamba election campaign, there had been a meeting of UNP lawyers convened at the Chilaw rest house and around 25 lawyers from the Puttalam district had been present. During the meeting one lawyer had stood up and said that leaders of the party come and go as they wish, and that they have lost faith in such leaders. He said that even though these leaders waver in their loyalties, those like himself will never leave the party even if the UNP remains in the opposition for the next 100 years. Having rebelled, gone over to the other side and them come back to the party fold, Jayasuriya is in a vulnerable position and open to attack.

While the UNP parliamentary group and trade unions were in ferment, the candidates at the Western provincial council elections were summoned for a meeting at Sirikotha last week. Karu Jayasuriya , Tissa Attanayake and Gamini Jayawickreme Perera ware present. S.B.Dissanayake was absent as he was taking oaths in Kandy. As in every UNP forum, the speakers at this meeting also sounded a negative note. Sagara Senaratne said that UNPers were now despondent (kalakirila) and that they could not campaign successfully with this conflict (kachal) within the party. Senaratne also said that an assurance had to be got from the candidates that they will not switch sides once elected. Speaking on this occasion, Mohamed Muzzamil said that it was difficult to get grassroots level UNPers to come out at this election even though the UNP was at a natural advantage in the Colombo metropolitan area. He too stated that the internal crisis in the UNP will hamper the election campaign.

Then one of the election coordinators for the Gampaha district, Nihal Chandrasekera had said that people get UNP votes and then go in search of various positions and that this culture had to stop. Chandrasekera said that if anybody wants to go, they should be allowed to go and that the people were with the party and the leader. Readers will remember that the last time there was an open rebellion led by Johnston Fernando, Lakshman Seneviratne, Talatha Atukorale and others after the defeat at the Sabaragamuwa and North Central Province elections, the UNP members of the WPC ganged up against the rebels and came out openly in support of the party leader. These councilors even met the Talatha, Lakshman and Johnston at a specially arranged party and discussed the issues with them. Later, they went in a delegation to Wickremesinghe to report that they were supportive of the party leadership and that they had confronted the rebels and asked them to desist from creating divisions within the party.

Provincial councilors are the natural enemies of parliamentarians as their goal in life is to replace the latter. Hence when parliamentarians are up in arms against the leader, provincial councilors support the leader. The present rebellion which is spearheaded by parliamentarians is an ideal opportunity for western provincial councilors to do some brown nosing, but nobody seems to have availed themselves of the opportunity. Indeed nobody among the western provincial council candidates has as yet made a Vajira Abeywardene style expression of faith. The one who did so is not a candidate but an election coordinator. The situation created by the parliamentarians is an ideal opportunity for a UNP candidate either on his own or with some other candidates to summon a press conference and to say publicly that they support Wickremesinghe’s leadership. But nobody has done so, not even Wickremesinghe’s protege Shiral Laktilleke.

Another noteworthy feature at last week’s meeting of WPC candidates was that nobody insisted that that Wickremesinghe should lead the election campaign. Having read the political columns, everybody present was obviously aware of what had gone on in the parliamentary group meeting and Wickremesinghe’s offer to stay away from the campaign. But that pledge was given to parliamentarians and not to WPC candidates. Was their silence eloquent? Not one candidate had spoken up and said "Garu nayakathumani, you must lead our election campaign and speak at all our meetings. Without your leadership and direction we cannot win this election!" and more to that effect as one would expect in normal circumstances. But it must be noted that Muzzamil had Ranil at his `do’ on Friday and Wickremesinghe addressed the gathering on that occasion.

 Unloved but unbowed

 The reason why no candidate has openly expressed his support for Wickremesinghe is because of the belief that the people would not vote for them if they were seen to be supportive of Wickremesinghe. This is also why no UNP candidate has as yet used Wickremesinghe’s photograph in their posters. Now with the provincial council candidates trying to distance themselves from Wickremesinghe, those who are aspiring to one day replace these very PC candidates – the wannabe provincial councilors – such as the Gampaha district election coordinator have swung into action, expressing support for Wickremesinghe. Given the erosion of the UNP’s electoral base and the decision of the SLMC to go it alone, it will be a great achievement if the UNP gets more than 14 seats out of the total of 40 in the Colombo district.

The problem with the UNP is that the minorities are over represented among their people’s representatives. In the Kurunegala district, four out of nine UNP provincial councilors are Muslims. In the Kandy district, there are four Muslim and one Tamil among a total of 12 councilors. In the Nuwara Eliya district, The UNP has only two seats out of a total of seven, five of which have gone to three allied Tamil parties. If this trend continues in the western province as well, with the minorities being over represented in the UNP, that may lead to a situation where the Sinhalese vote overwhelmingly for the UPFA. The partiality shown by the UNP towards the minorities may not necessarily stand the party in good stead.

The minority community leaders have come to expect much more from the UNP than they would ever hope to gain from the UPFA. For example, before nominations closed for the WPC elections, the DPF led by Mano Ganesan had tried their best to browbeat the UNP into giving them five slots on the Colombo district list. But Karu Jayasuriya and Tissa Attanayake had stood firm and given the DPF three slots. Having originally said that they would not contest with the UNP without five slots, the DPF gave in at the last minute and decided to contest on the UNP list in the Colombo district. They will be asking the Tamil people of the Colombo district to cast a vote for the elephant symbol and to cast their preferences for the three DPF candidates. In the Gampaha and Kalutara districts, the DPF will not be contesting under the UNP at all, but under the SLMC.

As for the SLMC, the decision from the beginning was to contest alone. The feeling within the SLMC is that by contesting on the UNP list, their candidates did not get enough preference votes to get elected. At the recently concluded central province elections, they lost one of the two provincial councilors they had, M. Neemulla, for the above reason. At present the SLMC has two councilors in the Colombo district and one each in Kalutara and Gampaha. With the DPF fielding Tamil candidates on their list, the SLMC feels that their chances of getting two Muslim candidates elected in Kalutara and Gampaha districts instead of one each as at present, are that much greater. The argument being that the DPF stood a much better chance of getting a Tamil elected on the SLMC list because the number of preference votes necessary to get elected, will be very much lower than on the UNP list. If they fail however, they would have ended up doing for the SLMC what they did not want to do for the UNP – to provide votes for other candidates to get elected. The DPF leader MP Mano Ganesan admits that for him to ever have hopes of wielding executive power one day, the UNP will have to be brought into power. He said that the alliances they form at a parliamentary election would be different and that what they are doing now is simply trying to get more representation for Tamils at the provincial level.

The SLMC’s Deputy Secretary General Nizam Kariapper, when asked about his party’s decision to contest alone, said that there was a common ‘misconception’ that the SLMC will remain permanently tied to the UNP. Asked whether it isn’t the case that the UNP will have to come back into power if Mr Hakeem is ever to hold ministerial office again, his prompt answer was ‘not necessarily’. He stated that if this was so, then there would be no point in having a separate Muslim party and that they might as well become members of the UNP outright. Asked whether the SLMC was hoping to join the government after the elections, he stated that if it was the case that there was a sudden and drastic change in the manner in which the president regarded the minorities, then there could be such a possibility.