As the country prepared to celebrate the Sinhala and Tamil New Year, we seem poised on the threshold of a new era. The country seems tantalizingly close to ending the terrorist problem and thus there’s tremendous optimism all round. Yet there is also apprehension about the coming economic storm and how Sri Lanka would be able to weather it. But the war has long dominated even economic discourse in this country and as Ajith Nivard Cabraal, the Central Bank Governor argues, the end of the war is also an event with tremendous economic importance. As he points out, for the past 25 years, whenever the Sri Lankan economy came up as a topic of discussion, the wistful remark "if only this war would come to an end…" would always feature in that discussion. So the governor’s argument is that the end of war, is an economic matter in as much as a military and political event. Well, as the New Year is celebrated this year, that wish is closer to realization than it ever was in the past.

As the Avurudu season began, things began to wind down on the political front, until Ranil Wickremesinghe enlivened the scene with his call for the abolition of the executive presidency and for a public debate between himself and the president on the ceasefire agreement. One person in the UNP who has consistently held that the executive presidency should be abolished is Ravi Karunanayake – most probably because of his association with the late Lalith Athulathmudali. The present writer knows of no one else, not even among the former members of the DUNF, who has consistently maintained that the executive presidency should be abolished. The cry for the abolition of the executive presidency has tended to wax and wane depending on who the executive president happened to be.

The executive presidency

Since the presidential election of 2005, there has been no public outcry for the abolition of the executive presidency because such a cry comes to the fore only when the president begins to be perceived as a tyrant. President Mahinda Rajapakse has hardly been that. Elections have been generally free and fair during the Rajapakse regime and there has been no persecution of the main opposition party unlike during the Chandrika Kumaratunga years. In fact the UNP has enjoyed a long period of peace under Rajapakse – a kind of peace that the average UNPer did not have either during the time of President Premadasa or during Wickremesinghe’s rule earlier this decade. So the question is whether this cry for the abolition of the executive presidency will have any resonance even among members of the UNP much less the general public. Not that everything has been hunky dory under the Rajapakse’s. A newspaper editor has been killed for the first time in history and investigators have drawn a blank – a matter which puts the spotlight on the government.

Journalists have been terrorized as in the attacks on Keith Nohyar, Namal Perera and Mahendra Ratnaweera which were undoubtedly carried out by sections of the armed services. Many journalists have fled the country. But the point is that the general public does not seem to be in the least concerned about these threats on journalists. Some time ago, the Irida Lakbima in an interview asked me why the public was so apathetic and indifferent towards what was obviously a government orchestrated repression of journalists. My answer was that the people did not feel the repression launched against the media, firstly because there was no repression of anti-government news and opinion. There were plenty of news channels and newspapers spewing forth anti-government views on a daily basis and when such a free flow of information prevails, the people do not feel that there is media repression. It was only in dictatorships like the old Soviet Union where no dissenting view was ever allowed that media repression was felt by the people. The fact here is that even with Lasanth Wickremetunga killed, his newspapers have continued to publish dissenting views. So the steam escapes and the pressure eases.

This kind of low-intensity repression is probably worse than a total repression because in a situation of total repression, it is possible to tell the world that there is no freedom of expression. But in a situation where the freedom to say anything exists but journalists get killed and beaten for it, the dissenting views find expression somehow. So the public does not feel the impact of the repression – it’s only the journalists who do. Therein lies our predicament. Another reason why the repression of the media was not taken any notice of is because in the past there were too many people masquerading as journalists but making a living off functioning as media agitators. On the slightest pretext, these jokers would turn up in front of the Fort Railway station and demonstrate for the cameras.

These demonstrations took place with such frequency and over such frivolous issues that the whole concept of media freedom became a joke to the general public. We came to be identified as a bunch of whiners who took to the streets at the drop of a hat. The dignity and respect of the journalistic profession was also seriously undermined by appearing once too often on the streets like beggars and ne’er do wells. Now with one editor dead and some others beaten within an inch of their lives, even if journalists take to the streets to demonstrate, a jaded public would only regard it as just another of those familiar demonstrations. As a journalist, what I find surprising is that these media agitators never learnt the art of the infrequent but effective intervention.

Be that as it may, the fact is that there is at this moment, less public interest in the abolition of the executive presidency than there is for even a ceasefire and for Wickremesinghe to bring this up at this point of time is an index of his genius for the non-event. Some weeks ago, this point was argued in the UNP working committee as well where Rukman Senanayake had furiously rejected the suggestion that the UNP should call for the abolition of the executive presidency. Senanyake’s contention was that the moment the UNP brought up such a suggestion, they would be exposed to accusations that they were trying to undermine the president and give oxygen to the LTTE which was on its last legs. Given that the UNP has officially announced that they want the executive presidency abolished, Senanayake’s sound advice seems to have been lost on Wickremesinghe.

This new opposition to the executive presidency on Wickremesinghe’s part is more likely motivated by an issue more personal than mere principle. It may be due to the realization that his chances in a one to one contest with Rajapakse or even with any of his possible successors were pretty bleak. With a possible presidential election staring him in the face early next year, Wickremesinghe may have thought that offense is the best form of defense.

Ramanayake’s avurudu present

Last week, the UNP leader despite his recent troubles attended campaign meetings in Kotte, Homagama Maharagama Kaduwela, Avissawella, North Colombo, Kesbewa and Attanagalle and in the Gampaha and Kalutara districts as well. Last Monday, the UNP provincial councilors in the Sabaragamuwa provincial council met Wickremesinghe. Also at this meeting, were Jayawickreme Perera, Karu Jayasuriya and Tissa Attanayake. The main complaint of the Sabaragamuwa provincial councilors was that their leader, Ranjan Ramanayake, was not showing any interest in the work of the provincial council and that this was causing them a great deal of discomfort politically. Readers will remember that a couple of months after the new Sabaragamuwa PC was sworn in, we reported that the other councilors were complaining that Ramanayake in his capacity as the leader of the opposition was not holding regular public days. At that time, he used to attend the meetings of the council, but this indifference that the Sabaragamuwa councilors had been complaining of was visible from the very beginning. This is hardly surprising because Ramanayake had been hauled over the coals at least twice by the UNP committee overseeing the electoral organizations over his handling of the Katana electorate. Sending him to Sabaragamuwa as the chief ministerial candidate was to ask for trouble although he did very well attracting preference votes and ran a visible campaign.

The UNP strategy of bringing outsiders with other interests into politics in order to compensate for its dearth of election candidates with any name recognition, due to the unceasing stream of defections from the party, is going to boomerang. In the long haul, they are going to lose whatever they got in terms of a temporary boost by fielding such individuals as their leading candidates at district and provincial level. Individuals like Ramanayake would be attracted to politics because of the possibility of an easy win. But such individuals would find the day to day of politics tedious and uninteresting; hence the present problem. Last week, Ramanayake’s issue was put on hold until he returns from overseas and Wickremesinghe told the irate Sabragamuwa councilors to sort out any problem which may crop up in the meantime, with the deputy leader and the general secretary of the party. Once the crisis in the Sabaragamuwa PC runs its course, there’ll be resistance from UNP candidates all over the country to having prominent ‘parachutists’ from outside foisted on them at election time in the name of winning elections.

Karu’s dinners

Last week, UNP deputy leader Karu Jayasuriya held two dinner parties at his residence. The first one was for UNP parliamentarians, and the second one was for working committee members who were not parliamentarians. The first dinner was attended by many UNP parliamentarians with Ranil Wickremesinghe also being one of the invitees. We reported in this column that the last working committee meeting ended with a compromise formula whereby some powers were to be shifted from the party leader to the deputy leader and the political affairs committee and that the party leader will not attend or preside over the political affairs committee and that Karu J would be the head of the PAC. The PAC would be in charge of appointing party organizers, district leaders, appointing nomination boards, disciplinary boards etc., all of which were hitherto appointed by the party leader The shifting of these powers to the deputy leader and the PAC depends on the exact wording of the minutes of that stormy six hour working committee meeting which have to be ratified at the next working committee meeting.

But the problem is that there’s no working committee meeting or even a parliamentary group meeting anywhere in sight. And the fear is that when the minutes are presented to the working committee, that they would be doctored in such a way that nothing is really conceded. During the impeachment crisis in 1992, it was Wickremesinghe who advised President Premadasa to prorogue parliament before the impeachment motion could be formally accepted by the Speaker. Well he has now effectively ‘prorogued’ the UNP as well until he can gather his wits about him.

When Wickremesinghe turned up at Karu J’s house for dinner last week, the reformist MPs present had chided their leader for not calling for a parliamentary group meeting. When he was leaving after the party, Wickremesinghe had said "Let’s have a parliamentary group meeting tomorrow morning" and this had been met with loud guffaws by the MPs present. Wickremesinghe is basically living by the day in the hope of some sudden event which would turn the tide for him. One of the things he had said at that party had been that Mahinda Rajapakse would be compelled to go for parliamentary elections by June or July this year. This too had been greeted with mirth by the reformist MPs present. Another thing that had been said by the party leader was that there were no crowds for government meetings. This had been met with words dripping with sarcasm by Dr Jayalath Jayawardene who had said "Yes, Sir, we are going to the win the Western Province. Have no fear!’’ and ``let everybody, get ready with the firecrackers!" and more to that effect.

A pain in the neck

Last week, Lakshman Seneviratne was in a foul mood having been at the receiving end of an attack in a Sinhala weekly widely purported to be controlled by the Wickremesinghe faction in the UNP. Some weeks ago, on the day of the Godapitiya (Akuressa) bomb blast, S.B.Dissanayake held a press conference at his house denouncing this same Sinhala weekly for trying to portray him and Rukman Senanayake as government fifth columnists trying to divide the UNP. He did not mention any names or even the name of the newspaper but warned that if the attacks on him continued, the next time, he would reveal the names of all those involved in this ignoble attempt to hound a section of the party.

But that warning does not seem to have worked because the Sinhala weekly in question had dealt with Lakshman Seneviratne in much the same vein, alleging among other things that the president’s physician – the now famous Dr Eliyantha White – had cured Seneviratne of a backache and that he was therefore beholden to the president and that the present agitation to remove Wickremesinghe within the UNP is actually orchestrated by Rajapakse. Seneviratne had indeed been treated by White and as an act of gratitude had publicly thanked him some time ago. Seneviratne is livid that a medical condition he had for so many years and its cure is being made use of to cast political aspersions on him.

Quite apart from this controversy over the Sinhala weekly, the general attitude of the Wickremesinghe faction and particularly individuals like Vajira Abeywardene has been to push agitators for reform and change out of the party. Abeywardene used to quite liberally use the word ‘go’ during earlier crises especially long drawn one in 2006. Since then he has gone slow on the g-word, but never ceased espousing that attitude. The question is that such a cavalier attitude towards the human assets of the party is only going to deepen existing crises like the one in the Sabaragamuwa PC mentioned above and cause an ongoing crisis in terms of finding suitable election candidates. Those whom the UNP has been eager to discard are politicians with many years of experience and they cannot be replaced in the short to medium term.

Of all the provincial elections held up to now, only the eastern province election can really be described as a make or break election for the parties involved. Had the government lost – and because of the preponderance of the minority vote in that province, there was the distinct possibility of a defeat – that would have been the beginning of a decline in their political fortunes. On the other hand, had the UNP won, that would have led to an upturn in their fortunes. At other PC elections there may have been some competition as in the NCP when Janaka Perera became the UNP chief ministerial candidate. But none of those were make or break elections for any of the political parties involved. The western PC election however is a make or break election for a hitherto important ally of the government, the JHU. The Jathika Hela Urumaya burst in upon the scene at the parliamentary election of 2004 with nine seats. Whether they will continue to be an important player in Sri Lankan politics in the future as well will be decided at this PC election.

Gammampila’s gamble

The JHU has fielded three candidates in the Western Province - Udaya Gammampila in the Colombo district, H.N.G.B.Kotakadeniya in the Gampaha district and Ven Thebuwana Piyananda in the Kalutara district. If the JHU candidates fail to win convincingly, their continued existence as a political party with representation in parliament, will more or less be over. The JHU is an offshoot of the National Movement Against Terrorism which began in 1997. It began at a time when it was highly unfashionable to speak of defeating terrorism militarily and the in-thing was peace negotiations. The cry for peace was on the rise and so was terrorism. The highpoint for the success of terrorism in this country was reached in 2000/01 when even the business community which usually restricts itself to trade matters began to call for peace through an organization called ‘Sri Lanka First’. Throughout this entire period, the NMAT doggedly stuck to the position that terrorism had to be defeated militarily. After 9/11 and the failure of the ceasefire agreement in Sri Lanka, opinion began to shift in the opposite direction – a trend which gave the JHU nine seats in parliament in 2004. Today, the NMAT stands vindicated because they have almost achieved the fruition of their goal - the crushing of terrorism militarily.

Those who joined the Marxist political project in the 1980s saw their political goals turn to dust with the collapse of socialism. In comparison to that, the NMAT was a success story. They began swimming against the tide in 1997 and within a decade, their ideology had due to various reasons become the dominant ideology in society. In the past two years, the success of the military operations has resulted in a situation where the NMAT itself may not have a reason to exist for long. Today, the whole country has become patriotic and anti-terrorist. Military operations against the LTTE have become a major ‘spectator sport’ with one side always winning. Thus the JHU is in danger of falling victim to its own success. Their platform has been taken over completely by the ruling party and the JHU itself has been reduced to irrelevance in the process.

When asked about this, Udaya Gammampila’s answer was that they don’t feel bad about it because they had not gone into politics for power but for principle. Had power been their motive, they could have joined one of the two major parties. He says that as long as somebody implements their anti-terrorist ideology, they are happy. Given the fact that the SLFP has basically swallowed up the NMAT/JHU anti-terrorist ideology, it may have been more advisable for the JHU, not stopping at joining the government but to join the SLFP itself en masse. To this Gammampila’s response was that there still are ideological differences between the JHU and SLFP and that therefore the two parties had to remain distinct. Even though the JHU is allied to the ruling coalition, there has been a hardening of attitude among members of the SLFP towards its allies and they tend to be less generous with their preference votes.

To this Gammampila’s contention is that the JVP contested together with the UPFA and then withdrew their MPs elected on SLFP votes to sit separately in parliament. The average SLFPer is now quite wary about unreliable allies. But he says the JHU contested separately and instead of taking anyone out, has actually brought in support to the government and that the SLFP voter will therefore look differently at them. Gammampila also claims credit for the JHU as the party that paved the way for the military success of the government by agitating for a military solution and egging on the government to commence operations against the LTTE during the Mavil Aru anicut incident which became the launching pad for the successful thrust against the LTTE. Gammampila says that the average SLFPer knows this, and is grateful.

Another problem for the JHU is that their candidates were elected to parliament on a protest vote against the UNP’s policies in 2004. Those elected were bhikkus and none of them had done political work even though a number of them may have been social workers of a sort in their respective areas. So the JHU has always been hovering above the political firmament like a disembodied sprit. This has been compounded at the present election by fielding candidates who were not in electoral politics until nomination day. Gammampila however claims to have been a full time politician for nearly a decade even though he has not been in electoral politics and that the people of the Colombo district know him as a politician.