There is no escaping the reality that the end of the current phase of the war against terrorism is taking longer than expected. That is due to the obvious reason of the human shield of civilians behind whom Prabhakaran and what’s left of his hierarchy, together with perhaps a few hundred fighters are now cowering. If the military didn’t care about those civilians, the mopping-up would have been in the words of Thomas Hobbes in his classic, Leviathan, ``nasty, brutish and short.’’ Fortunately the world outside our shores has now come to see the real picture for what it is and several western countries as well as multilateral agencies now agree that the LTTE is compelling the civilians, often at the point of a gun, not to flee the last pocket in the Vanni yet under Tiger control. Despite this, pressure is being mounted on the Government of Sri Lanka to either halt or ``pause’’ military operations to enable the civilians to leave. This is exactly what the government did during two days of the New Year last week but there was no large exodus. The reason for this is easy to see. The LTTE did not let it happen.

Obviously Prabhakaran is engaged in a desperate time buying exercise looking for some fortuitous circumstance, perhaps a hung Parliament in India where a national election is now in progress, giving his friends in Tamil Nadu additional leverage to push a government in New Delhi to intervene. Such efforts have failed up to now but can very well be revived if the election results will give Tiger supporters the opportunity of deciding who will rule India. Meanwhile the pressure on Colombo to halt offensive operations is mounting, sometimes leavened with muted criticism of the LTTE over their human shield tactic. India’s External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee made a statement on Friday expressing ``deep concern’’ about the humanitarian situation here which the government as well as the people of Sri Lanka are very well aware of. But in a context that the Tigers continue to build their bund-and-ditch defences, no doubt using the forced labour of civilians, and mine the few square miles of coastal strip where they remain holed out, are the troops massed against the LTTE to play an indefinite waiting game? Will those whose hearts bleed for the civilians, and nobody is more concerned about their plight than Sri Lanka, help the government of this country to get them out of the Tiger’s clutches? We hear a lot of words but see no action.

Even the LTTE tacitly acknowledges that the current stage of this long drawn civil war is now all but over and it is only a matter of time before their capacity to wage a conventional war is ended. Most Lankans will see that chapter as closed with Prabhakaran’s death or capture; or if he it is proved that he has fled the country. Then what next? The Tigers no doubt will retain a residual terrorist capacity and Sri Lanka will have to live with that reality. But, as pointed out by several commentators who have contributed to this issue of the Sunday Island, the most formidable weapon the Tigers retain is the so-called Tamil Diaspora, the hundreds of thousands of Tamils who fled this country in the wake of the violence. Many of them, certainly, were victims of violence and consequent insecurity. Others were economic refugees, those who took advantage of the doors that were opened to them as a result principally of Black July of 1983 which remains an indelible blot on the image of this country. Sri Lanka lost many good people from the acts of a few, mainly criminal elements that crawled out like termites from the woodwork, when the right atmosphere was created by some for murder, arson and looting. The unwillingness/inability of the J.R. Jayewardene administration to have nipped that in the bud was President Jayewardene’s greatest failure for which Sri Lanka continues to pay a heavy price.

It is well known that the Diaspora, either willingly or through extortion, provided much of the funds that enabled the LTTE to fight a relentless war for nearly three decades. Those who believe that such people - especially the deeply committed - will jump like rats out of the sinking ship, must think again. The Diaspora’s organizational capacity and its ability to effectively lobby many western governments to get the Tigers off the hook are being demonstrated by the day. Sri Lanka has no Lakshman Kadirgamar any more to counter these groups and some of the sorry diplomatic appointments made by this government like most of its predecessors have not helped her cause. It is becoming increasingly clear that the Diaspora, none of whose members will leave their comfortable adopted homelands to live in any Eelam, will continue to support the LTTE with all the means at their command. There are many able and committed people among them and the Sri Lankan State must work towards winning them round. If these people, many wealthy and able, invest in those areas claimed as a Tamil homeland, they can make a vast difference in swiftly exploiting the undoubted economic potential of those parts of the country to which they are sentimentally attached; and their people who live in those areas will be the beneficiaries.