If by the time you read this newspaper on Sunday morning, the UNP is not on its way to a resounding and unprecedented defeat at the WPC polls, that would be very surprising indeed. The UNP itself is not expecting anything different. When the UNP May Day committee met last week, with the participation of Karu Jayasuriya, Ravi Karunanayake, Jayawickrema Perera and others, the decision taken was not to have a May Day rally this year, but to have a series of social service activities which included an alms giving at an orphanage and a shramadana among others. Not holding a May Day rally this year is a prudent decision because such an event in the immediate aftermath of another electoral defeat will not exactly be a great crowd-puller.

The government was riding high last week with the success of the rescue operation to save the hostages the LTTE was holding in the no-war zone. In fact in the last week of campaigning for the WPC election, no one was talking of the election at all. The focus was on the military action. What we have seen over the past week on the battlefront is undoubtedly the stuff of legend - the biggest hostage crisis and rescue mission in modern world history. The world has not seen anything of the kind since it was standard operating procedure to take hostages as a way of ensuring the loyalty of subject peoples. On Monday last week, the president received a call from British Prime Minister Gordon Brown wanting to know about the operation to free the hostages. The president had told him that the operation was successful and that the people had started coming over to the government held area.

Brown had then asked whether he could send a special representative to assess the situation. The president had explained that it was not necessary to send a special representative but a parliamentary delegation would be welcome. Rajapaksa knew that Brown was on his way out and that it would be much more profitable to entertain not the representative of a discredited and unpopular prime minister but a parliamentary delegation that would have included the opposition which will be in power in Britain soon. The next question that Brown had asked was what the government’s political solution was. The president had patiently explained that the people coming into the government held areas had not eaten for days, were wearing rags and that they needed food, water, medicine and other necessities of life and not a political solution at this stage. A political solution could be looked at later after these necessities had been attended to.

What was amazing was that Gordon Brown had spoken to the president of political solutions, and despite the hints dropped by the president, had not spoken one word about giving material assistance to the Tamil IDPs. He had not pledged a single tent or a packet of milk powder for the Tamil IDPs of Sri Lanka. Brown is Scottish and the Scots are known to be tight fisted. He was looking for humanitarianism on the cheap. Talking about political solutions costs the British nothing and sending a special representative costs only the plane ticket. His concern about the Tamils does not extend to giving them some material help at this time of need. In contrast to this, the two man Indian delegation of National Security Advisor Narayanan and Foreign Secretary Shivshankar Menon had pledged increased material assistance for the Tamil IDPs with the Sri Lankan government so stretched that they were soliciting help from the general public.

More defections

Some weeks ago, when this column reported the defection of Ananda Abeywickrema, the Beddegama organizer of the UNP, we said that yet another UNP pradesheeeya sabha opposition leader was going to defect and that we would announce it when it happens. Well, last week, the UNP opposition leader of the Yakkalamulla PS, Edwin Jayawickrema, met the president and joined the government. A veteran UNP activist of the area, Jayawickrema had previously served two terms as the chairman of the Yakkalamulla PS. He was to have defected with Abeywickrema, but was hospitalized, and unable to defect when Abeywickrema left. Among those who left the UNP and joined the UPFA last week in Abeywickrema’s group, along with Edwin Jayawickrema, were three leading businessmen in Galle, K.G.Dharmasena better known as KGD mudalali, A.G.Kanthasiri, and Sirisena Pothupitiya, the chairman of the UNP businessmen’s association of the Baddegama electorate. All of these business people had been pillars of the UNP and had never at any time in their lives been associated with the SLFP or its allies. Two more businessmen, Padmakantha Wliwita a TV producer and Sanath Batuwatte were also in the group.

Also in the group was a lawyer Priyankara Liyanage, the legal affairs secretary of the Baddegama UNP electoral organization, Susil Nanayakkara, a well known English tutor, a well known artist/sculptor P.A.Wijeratne, Sanath Nanayakkara, the media secretary of the Baddegama UNP electoral organization, Samarapala Lokuge and Darshana Gotabhaya, both former members of the Yakkalamulla PS, and S.Wijeratne, a Youvun Peramuna activist attached to the party headquarters Sirikotha, among others. This group, met the president and had a relaxed chat for about half an hour, had lunch at Temple Trees and then made their way to the Darley Road headquarters of the SLFP to obtain party membership. Before they returned to Galle, they addressed some UPFA meetings in the Dehiwala area.

There is yet another opposition leader of a Galle district pradesheeya sabha who was due to meet the president along with Edwin Jayawickrema and the others, but he was unable to come at the last moment due to an important personal matter. But he will definitely be defecting along with not less than 10 other sitting PS members from his and three adjoining pradesheeya sabhas in the near future. We will report it when it happens. The UNP is losing a whole layer of village level activists without anyone to replace them. These defections have spread not just to the elected village level representatives but even to ordinary voters. One distraught UNP provincial councilor told the present writer that when he went around the Galle district visiting UNP households he knew, quite a few households had told him that they were no longer UNP, that the party was beyond redemption and that the UNP deserved nothing but punishment at the hands of the voters.

The unfolding WPC debacle

The UNP had 18 elected provincial councilors in the Colombo district in 2004. This time it would be a good showing if they can get 15 elected in the Colombo district. The 18 provincial councilors elected last time were Duminda Silva, Jayantha Silva, Lakshman Abeygunaratne, Mohan Lal Grero, Niroshan Padukka, Nimal R.Peiris, Sagara Senaratne, Liyanage Damayantha, Yogadas Ram, Shahul Hameed Mohamed, Thompson J.Mendis, Harischandra Costa, Sujeewa Senasinghe, Kithsiri Fernando, Janaka Mallimarachchi, Sunil Magammana, H.M.S.Fairoos and Vellamma Sellasamy. Of these, about four have dropped out of the race. Duminda Silva, who topped the UNP list in Colombo last time, has joined the UPFA. Janaka Mallimarachchi, the son of the late Weerasinghe Mallimarachchi, dropped out of the race this time. He came in close to the bottom of the UNP list last time and would have thought better of his prospects this time with the possibility that the UNP vote might contract at the present elections.

Mallimarachchi bears a name that was synonymous with UNP urban politics in a different era. His father, Weerasinghe Mallimarachchi, who held Kolonnawa until his death in the Thotalanga bomb blast that killed Gamini Dissanayake, was the quintessential UNP urban politician. He was himself a protégé of that doyen of UNP urban politicians, V.A.Sugathadasa. Janaka Mallimarachchi was obviously not a grassroots type like his father, but his name would have ensured him a slot in the UNP except for the fact that he made the same mistake that Karu Jayasuriya made. He defected to the government and then came back to the UNP, thus falling in between two stools. Despite these vicissitudes, Kolonnawa organizer, Dr Karunasena Kodituwakku, kept one of the two PC candidate slots in the Kolonnawa electorate open for Mallimarachchi; but the latter had thought better of contesting. The fact that about four sitting members of the provincial council will not be seeking re-election, will open up vacancies for newcomers.

Of these newcomers, Mohamed Muzammil is undoubtedly the frontrunner for a slot in the WPC. He has been in the political scene for many years, and has run an impressive campaign. Coming after him is Shiral Laktilleke a complete newcomer to politics, but in terms of visibility, he has managed to keep himself in the forefront of the campaign from the beginning to the end. In fact, it can be said that Laktilleke projected himself better than others like Sujeewa Senasinghe who have been in the game longer. The advent of pushy newcomers is going to intensify competition for the shrinking UNP vote base. Some newcomers may not be as visible as Muzammil and Laktilleke on the advertising front, but have vote strong bases nevertheless. Manjula Arangala, the Homagama organizer has a good political base. Rosy Senanayake, being one of just two women in the UNP list in Colombo, is certain to get elected. If the push from the newcomers is too strong, some of those elected last time and in the contest again, are going to get knocked out of the running.

Voter abuse and neglect

One thing that could be immediately noticed in the WPC election campaign is that on both the UNP and UPFA sides, the competition was within the political parties and not between them. At the PC elections held last year, the Eastern, Sabaragamauwa, and North Central Province and Central Province elections, because of the UNP chief ministerial candidates in those elections, there was at least some hope of winning. But when the WPC elections were called and despite the fact that the UNP was particularly strong in the Colombo district, they have all but given up hope. Hence the effort of every candidate was to win on his own regardless of what happens to the party. In the Sabaragamuwa and Central Province as well as the NCP, the chef ministerial candidates took centre stage. Today however, with no chief ministerial candidate to unite behind, every candidate is running his own battle to get elected on the supposedly unshakable UNP ‘block vote’.

But one thing that we have to realize is that this ‘block vote’ which is comprised of human beings, was subject to gross abuse by the UNP leadership during the past fifteen years. The urban block vote, especially within Colombo and its environs, comprises of two segments. There is a segment of the Colombo voters who are business people and are traditionally aligned to the UNP because of the perception that the UNP is more business-friendly. To such people, the UNP is the only party around and they would vote for the UNP through thick and thin. This class of people also have the resources to be independent and they don’t really need the government of the day for their day to day survival. But there is also a huge underclass in the city of Colombo which is dependent on political patronage and various favours from politicians. The UNP always had a network of patronage to look after this underclass in Colombo.

When the UNP was in power, patronage flowed freely; and when the party was in opposition, there were UNP urban politicians of the calibre of V.A.Sungathadasa, M.Vincent Perera, R.Premdasa, Sirisena Cooray and others who understood this urban underclass constituency and looked after their interests so that their support always remained with the UNP. But in the past fifteen years the UNP has been in opposition almost continuously. And this urban underclass electorate has not been deprived of patronage for this long ever before. The long period in opposition has been compounded by the fact that the UNP has not in recent times, produced an urban politician of the calibre of Sugathadasa, .Premadasa, Vincent Perera or Sirisena Cooray. The UNP appointees to the position of Colombo Mayor for more than a decade have been political parachutists and transients.

The first such to pass through Colombo was Karu Jayasuriya who was nominated as Mayor-designate and was duly elected by the loyal UNP masses of Colombo and he ended up in Gampaha. Then came Prasanna Gunawardena, Minister Dinesh Gunawardene’s younger sibling. He too was nominated, elected, served his term, and today, is unheard of. The Colombo constituency was so taken for granted that the UNP leadership thought whoever they nominated, the Colombo underclass would come out and sing and dance and take the UNP nominee in procession around the streets and then have him elected. But the UNP hierarchy never gave a thought to promoting some younger urban politicians to replace those that the UNP has lost. Today the only parliamentarian (other than Ranil Wickremesinghe) that the UNP has from within the Colombo Municipal Council area is Mohamed Maharoof.

Maharoof is hardly a dynamic type and he can’t possibly step into the vacuum created by the likes of V.A.Sugathadasa, R.Premadasa, Vincent Perera, Jabir A Cader, Sirisena Cooray et al. In Duminda Silva, the UNP had the best chance to create another Sugathadasa type of urban politician, but they botched it. Rosy Senanayake was given the Colombo West electorate without having been elected even as a Municipal Councilor. But Duminda Silva, who got the highest number of preference votes in the Colombo district at the 2004 PC elections, was given only half the Colombo North electorate to organize. Little wonder he defected. The Colombo constituency was so taken for granted that the UNP leadership never thought of promoting someone that could nurse it – the assumption being that this constituency was so loyal that they needed no nursing.

Thilanga Sumathipala

The UNP also missed another opportunity in Thilanga Sumathipala who contested an election for the first time yesterday but who has long been known to harbour political ambitions. Had Sumathipala been given a Colombo electorate and told to look after the UNP’s backyard, he may still have been in the UNP. Both Sumathipala and Duminda Silva are the UNP’s lost opportunities. Because Duminda Silva started life as a UNPer, his constituency was the urban underclass. Even after defecting, Silva had continued working among this class. Now the question is whether the Duminda-Sumathipala duo would be able to make a dent in the hitherto solid Colombo underclass vote base of the UNP? Will years of being taken for granted finally result in the UNP’s decline within this constituency? We will know during the course of this day.

Duminda Silva and Thilanga Sumathipala are both new to the UPFA set up, it will be creditable if they get anything more than 50,000 preference votes each. Polling is customarily low at PC elections and in any case, recent defectors can’t be expected to get as many votes as the established politicians in that party. Even the formidable Asoka Wadigamangawa came only fourth at the Wayamba elections. But these defectors are high spenders and money talks. Whether they can win UNP votes remains to be seen. The only approximation to the kind of urban politician that the UNP needs in Colombo is Jayantha Silva, who moves well with the urban underclass. But then he is only a humble grassroots level politician and one can’t really expect a major leadership role from him.

Last week the president had to summon all UPFA candidates for a meeting, where he had them admonished by religious leaders like Ven Maduluwawe Sobitha and Niyas Moulavi not to fight one another for preference votes. There was talk of a reign of terror in the Colombo Central electorate mainly because of a turf war between rival Muslim candidates. The internal battle in the UPFA in Colombo Central had affected the UNP campaign as well. On Thursday, several hundred UNP activists in a show of force, led by Wickremesighe, Karu Jayasuriya, Ravi Karunanyake and others, descended on Maligawatte and went canvassing for the UNP. Wickremesinghe had participated in the operation from the start to the end and he too had visited the by lanes of the Colombo slums to restore confidence particularly among the Muslims of Colombo Central.

The minutes

It was reported in our previous columns, that the minutes of the previous UNP working committee meeting were supposed to be approved at this month’s meeting and that many powers such as the appointment of electoral organizers and district leaders, the appointment of nominations boards, and disciplinary boards etcetera, were to shift to the political affairs committee and the deputy leader of the party. Well, the working committee meeting for April was held last Thursday, and the minutes were approved but without any of these changes. They aren’t usually circulated to the members before approval. They are only read out on the grounds that these confidential documents find their way to the press. This time however, the minutes were not even read out!

The reformist members of the working committee had let it go because with 48 hours to go for the WPC election, nobody had wanted to rock the boat by raising a furor. This however will become the bone of contention at the next meeting. The working committee meeting on Thursday had been a short affair of about half an hour and those present had sallied forth to ‘invade’ Maligawatte to allay the fears of the Colombo Central Muslim voters who had allegedly been intimidated by a UPFA candidate. A highlight of last Thursday’s working committee meeting was that Wickremesinghe himself had brought a resolution lauding the armed services for their achievements in crushing the LTTE.

Lakshman Seneviratne had suggested that the resolution should also include an appeal to the western powers not to bring pressure on the SL government to halt the offensive against the LTTE. But Wickremesinghe had point blank refused to include that suggestion in the resolution on the grounds that that was the government’s problem, not the UNP’s.